Technical Analysis: High Probability of Rebound

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๐Ÿ“Š 1. Technical Analysis: High Probability of Rebound

  • Bitcoin Holding Key Support LevelsThe $60,000โ€“$65,000 support zone remains solid, indicating sustained buying pressure.

  • Trading Above the 200-Day Moving AverageBitcoin is trading above the 200-day MA, which signifies a continuing medium-to-long-term uptrend and is considered a bullish signal.

  • RSI Near Oversold LevelsSome altcoins have RSI (Relative Strength Index) values approaching 30, suggesting they are nearing oversold territory and may be poised for a rebound.


๐Ÿ’น 2. Fundamental Analysis: Mid-Term Outlook is Positive

  • Consistent ETF InflowsSince the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional capital has been steadily flowing into the market โ€” forming a strong foundation for long-term price growth.

  • Post-Halving Supply-Demand DynamicsFollowing the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, supply has decreased. If demand remains stable or increases, a natural price rebound is likely.

  • **Innovation Trends (RWA, AI, Ethereum Upgrade)**Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, AI-blockchain integration, and Ethereum network improvements are restoring investor confidence and creating bullish momentum.


๐ŸŒ 3. Macroeconomic Factors: Volatile but Rebound Possible

  • Potential U.S. Rate CutsThe Federal Reserve has hinted at rate cuts in the second half of 2025, which could lead to increased liquidity and asset inflows.

  • Geopolitical UncertaintyEvents such as the U.S. presidential election and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could create short-term shocks. However, in times of uncertainty, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a hedge.


๐Ÿง  4. Market Sentiment: Optimism vs Caution

  • Whale Accumulation Behavior DetectedOn-chain data shows that major holders (whales) are gradually accumulating Bitcoin, a signal of confidence in a future price rebound.

  • Short-Term Sell-Off by Retail InvestorsRecent corrections appear to be driven more by short-term profit-taking than a long-term bearish trend.