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I bought $1,000 of Saturn YT: points, breakeven and ROI before TGE

After the first Saturn YT calculation, I bought the main strategy from the table: yt-USDat on BNB.

Now I want to check it against live data:

  1. how many points my position is earning;

  2. how many points the whole system is printing.

From that, we can estimate the TGE window, my share of total points, net burn, cost per 1M points, breakeven FDV and ROI.

Position

Metric

Value

Entry

$1,000

Instrument

yt-USDat-27AUG2026, BNB

YT bought

39,774

Measurement start

29 May 2026, 17:09 UTC+5

Current points

5.63M

Position speed

~2.98M points/day

If TGE happens before expiry, part of the YT position can still be sold. So I am not only counting points, but also net burn after selling the remaining YT.

System

Metric

Value

Points Distributed on 29 May

111.59B

Points Distributed now

130.72B

Increase

19.13B

System speed

~9.73B points/day

Current TVL

$247.4M

My current share of daily emissions:

2.98M / 9.73B = ~0.031%

For the airdrop, the important number is not the daily share, but my share of total points at TGE.

TGE Window

Season 1 ends at the earlier of two events:

  1. TVL reaches $500M;

  2. Season 1 deadline: 8 Aug 2026.

Current TVL is around $247.4M. That leaves roughly $252.6M until the cap.

At the current pace of about $4.0M/day, TVL reaches $500M in around 63 days, which is close to 2 Aug 2026.

So the TVL cap and the Season 1 deadline land in almost the same window: early August. I use 2-8 Aug 2026 as the TGE window.

BNB boost ends on 6 Jun 2026, 9 AM EST.

Period

Position speed

Before boost ends

~2.98M points/day

After boost ends

~1.49M points/day

Points at TGE

Using the current system speed of ~9.73B points/day:

TGE

Days to TGE

My points at TGE

Total system points at TGE

Share

~2 Aug

~63

~108.9M

~744.9B

~0.0146%

8 Aug

~68

~116.3M

~796.1B

~0.0146%

If system emissions fall after the BNB boost ends, my final share should be higher.

Net Burn

Entry: $1,000.

Instrument expiry: 27 Aug 2026.

For YT resale, I assume the exit IY is about 2-3% lower than today: around 7.66% instead of ~10.16%.

TGE

Time left to expiry

Estimated YT resale

Net burn

~2 Aug

~25 days

~$195

~$805

8 Aug

~19 days

~$153

~$847

Cost of points:

TGE

My points

Net burn

Cost / 1M points

~2 Aug

~108.9M

~$805

~$7.40

8 Aug

~116.3M

~$847

~$7.29

Breakeven and ROI

Season 1 allocation: 5%.

  • Optimistic case: FDV $250M, Season 1 pool = $12.5M.

  • Pessimistic case: FDV $125M, Season 1 pool = $6.25M.

Formulas:

  • drop value = FDV 5% share of points

  • breakeven FDV = net burn / (5% * share of points)

  • ROI = drop value / net burn - 1

TGE

Breakeven FDV

Value at $125M FDV

ROI at $125M

Value at $250M FDV

ROI at $250M

~2 Aug

~$110M

~$914

~14%

~$1,827

~127%

8 Aug

~$116M

~$913

~8%

~$1,826

~116%

I use $250M FDV as the optimistic reference from the APYX Polymarket market. $125M FDV is the pessimistic case, 50% lower. It is not a direct comp, but it is a useful reference for a new points-to-token launch.

Comparison with yt-srUSDat

yt-srUSDat lowers net burn through underlying yield, but it prints fewer points.

If we put $1,000 into yt-srUSDat now:

TGE

Points at TGE

Yield

YT resale

Net burn

Cost / 1M points

~2 Aug

~34.5M

~$502

~$209

~$289

~$8.38

8 Aug

~37.4M

~$545

~$163

~$292

~$7.82

For the 8 Aug scenario:

Instrument

Breakeven FDV

ROI at $125M FDV

ROI at $250M FDV

yt-USDat BNB

~$116M

~8%

~116%

yt-srUSDat ETH

~$124M

~1%

~101%

Bottom line:

yt-USDat BNB gives the highest raw points and the best cost per 1M points in the 2-8 Aug TGE window.

yt-srUSDat ETH burns fewer dollars, but because it earns fewer points, it ends up more expensive per 1M points.

What to Watch

To avoid turning a YT farm into a losing trade, I would watch several live metrics instead of only looking at ROI:

Metric

Why it matters

Total Points Distributed

Faster total points growth dilutes the position

My points/day

After the BNB boost ends, the speed should drop; the real drop matters

TVL and TVL growth pace

Earlier TGE means more value can be recovered by selling YT

YT resale price

If YT sells off hard, net burn increases

Season 1 rules

Multipliers, dates and TGE conditions can change the math quickly

FDV estimate

If FDV is below breakeven, even a good cost per 1M points is not enough

The main risk is dilution. If the system starts printing points much faster than my position, breakeven FDV moves higher and ROI compresses quickly.

Author: https://x.com/hell0men

Ref code (5% boost): SAT-50CEAD17