10 predictions, and a nail-biter of a year to wait out whether I was right or not. What could go wrong? Think of this as a 10-piece nugget; some will definitely hit it, some will miss and you’ll definitely remember me the day after.
Prediction 1: Increased adoption of cold wallets
If we have learned anything from FTX; you’d have to be absolutely bonkers to keep your crypto (not actively traded ofc) on an exchange. Keep your funds in your own personal crypto wallet. Especially considering that Ledger dropped another brand spanking new wallet that looks slick as hell, it may be time to load up on some physical wallets for safekeeping
Why do you need to keep your funds in a wallet rather than an exchange?
It was only a mere few weeks ago when even Binance was at the crosshair of FTX poopparade. The way I see it; the relationship between regulations and Binance is somewhat similar to Whiplash and Iron Man:
“If you could make God bleed, people would cease to believe in Him. There will be blood in the water, the sharks will come. All I have to do is sit back and watch as the world consumes you.”
Even though I don’t like to put Binance on a pedestal; it’s a fact that most of the “simple end user” is joined to Binance at the hip and it’s not going to change any time soon. Therefore; if Binance falls, we all fall. That’s why I’m expecting a rise in the total number of cold wallets used.
Prediction 2: BTC will drop it like it’s hot.
Anything you read from this point onwards is not financial advice. I know: Just around when we’re hitting 20k, this isn’t the prediction that you wanted to read but BEAR with me.
If you are looking for an explanation with Fibonacci retracements; I’m sorry I’m not that guy. I have a much easier system: Increased interest rates + scrutiny + correlation to the stock market (which is a spiraling mess of its own) + potential mining bans = Freefall for BTC
The crypto markets may recover (No, not a bull market). My most tame bag is around an 80% loss, by recovery I’m expecting my losses to stay around 40–50%; not a 50% profit. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
A 10k BTC (or even lower) may be in the works. Don’t even get me started on the altcoins too.
There’s also the fact that SEC will most likely make a move on another crypto project. The only thing positive that can come out of this will make BTC maxi’s happy: Only BTC can survive SEC’s crackdown. The alt’s will crumble like cookies
Those who bought at 60k waiting for 100k BTC — I salute you.
Prediction 3: Regulations, Regulations, Regulations
To my fellow colleagues in crypto discussing whether this year is going to be DeFi’s, GameFi’s, or DeSoc’s year; you can call it a day. This year is going to be the year of regulations.
The only thing institutional investors love more than tax havens is regulatory clarity and this year will be full of it. My quarrel with this is the fact that these regulations won’t be unified, meaning; you can still get away with a lot of stuff on MENA, less in the EU and fewer in the US. If the tech is geo-agnostic, why isn’t the law?
Regulations are like crypto projects; not all of them are good and beneficial for the scene. This is many of the punches that we all need to roll with but there’s a silver lining here: As regulations become more and more unbearable the number of projects decentralizing will spike. The only way to avoid these regulations is through decentralization, so kudos to policymakers for accelerating decentralization I guess.
I’ll say this again and again; even though I don’t like regulations or a chokehold around what can I do or not, I’m all for it. The only way we’ll have mass institutional adoption is through regulations and once the “big bucks” roll into town everyone will benefit from it.
Prediction 4: Wolves are going to dig up a lot of graves
No, not literal wolves, the ones on Wall Street. A lot of crypto exchanges and platforms went belly up this year and someone needs to pick up the remains. This is the forte of WOWS. Any TradFi that wants to dip their toes (or paws) into crypto can swoop in and hold a golden ticket to FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, and Voyager to provide services in a new field.
This isn’t a grave per se, but Coinbase is also in the crosshairs of TradFi too and for a good reason; for the last couple of years Coinbase (one of the biggest exchanges on US) has been bleeding banks dry left and right. More importantly; Coinbase’s revenue generation capacity has been observed by the said banks and as a cherry on top, the current situation between SEC and Coinbase isn’t really helping either.
Chances are we’ll see somewhat of a M&A or a takeover from Wall Street into a blue chip. When, how, and who? That’s for time to show.
Prediction 5: Decentralization will skyrocket
Two aspects of decentralization will play a huge role in our lives;
DeFi
Unless you’ve been living under a rock or something, you know all about the FTX shenanigans. This has plummeted the trust of CEX’s. Though one must admit this isn’t an indirect correlation to increased levels of trust in DEX’s but just the sheer amount of currencies flown out of CEX’s to DEX’s during times of FOMO can show that there’s definitely a tendency towards DeFi.
Big Tech Finally Gets It
Nobody is even remotely interested in Meta’s Metaverse. We all know that this is just another publicity stunt that’s aimed at more control, monetization, and surveillance. Therefore Meta (and so many others) have no choice but to decentralize their projects in order to survive. Long gone are the days of knowing a user from top to bottom. Decentralized, privacy-preserving infrastructures are the new cool kids in town.
Financial and Regulatory Race to the Bottom
A single transaction between two different banks in two different countries can last up to 3–5 business days. Even in some cases where the transaction happens within the same banks different branches in different countries can take a few days. Considering that millions of dollars could’ve been sent momentarily while you were reading this through DeFi, expecting an adoption from centralized financial institutions wouldn’t be a surprise.
Part II is in the works
Stay tuned!