On the evening of June 22, Iranian National Security Committee member Kousari announced that the parliament had concluded the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, though the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The news triggered a sharp sell-off, with Bitcoin plunging from $102,810 to below $98,200 before recovering to around $100,800. Ethereum extended its losing streak to four days, hitting $2,111, while Solana dropped 3.45% to $126, with altcoins broadly in the red.
Per Coinglass data, $658 million in futures positions were liquidated in 24 hours, including $526 million in long positions. The largest single liquidation occurred on HTX’s BTC-USDT pair, totaling $35.45 million.
Will Iran actually shut down the Strait of Hormuz?
The strategic waterway, straddling Oman and Iran, links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and facilitates one-third of global seaborne oil trade. Iran controls key islands and military installations along its western coast, enabling a rapid "layered fire blockade" if ordered.
Historically, Iran has repeatedly threatened closures (e.g., during the Iran-Iraq War and post-U.S. nuclear deal withdrawal) but never followed through.
Economic suicide: Iran relies on the strait for 90% of its oil exports. A blockade would cripple its economy and fuel domestic unrest.
International isolation: Dr. Liu Qiang of Shanghai Institute for Global Strategy notes that closing the strait would turn global sympathy into opposition.
U.S. VP Vance called the move "economically self-destructive," while Trump hinted at regime change if Iran "fails to become great again."
Traders are divided:
Bullish: Eugene Ng Ah Sio opened long positions, arguing the sell-off was a "shakeout" and a buying opportunity—unless BTC crashes to $95,000.
Cautious: CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno flags cooling demand, with whale and ETF buying halved and new investor interest waning.
Key support levels:
$92,000: On-chain cost basis for traders (bull market support).
$81,000: Next major floor if $92K fails.
Ethereum’s 55% supply still in profit suggests it’s "not yet the bottom," says analyst Murphy.
Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz warns:
If Iran retaliates militarily, expect further downside.
No escalation? A "sharp rally" could follow by weekend.
Bottom line: Bitcoin’s fate hinges on geopolitical developments. Hold $100K, and bulls live to fight another day; lose it, and $92K becomes the battleground.
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