As 2025 approaches, we will summarize the past and look forward to the future as usual.

Looking back at the past of the crypto industry, we can find an interesting phenomenon, that is, every four years there is a "alt season", during which you will find that everything in the industry is rising, and you may hear that your alcoholic uncle also bought some animal emojis and made a fortune, even when he was drunk.

By 2025, the real alt season can be said to have not yet fully arrived. Although no one can predict how crazy this alt season will be, here I would like to remind everyone that the trend of Altcoins market is generally out of control quickly, and it may also end suddenly. Once a crash occurs, the decline may not only be -99.99%, but may even be a complete crash. But before that, everyone is immersed in the atmosphere of prosperity and entertainment. So, let's take a look back at the previous alt seasons to see how they developed and whether there are any valuable lessons to be learned from them?

We know that the current wave of blind followers is likely to reappear. This happened in 2013, and the trend becomes very interesting.

In the 2013 "Alt Season", Bitcoin was still in its early stages of development, with a total market value of only about $1 billion, and a whale transaction was only about $100,000. At that time, CEX Mt. Gox was still operating, and investors were mostly those who often appeared in Magic: The Gathering trading card events (this is also the background of the Mt. Gox incident).

At that time, people proposed the idea of ​​improving Bitcoin transaction speed, thinking that by reducing block time, transactions could be accelerated, which was seen as a far-reaching innovation at the time. Litecoin: Still exists today, and the whole idea (proposed by Charlie Lee) is to reduce the block time from Bitcoin's 10 minutes to 2.5 minutes.

Litecoin went from ~10 cents to $48, a ~47,900% increase, and had another big run in 2017 before Charlie Lee dumped all his holdings at the top, claiming that "the Bitcoin network is fine without him" (we all know what it means when a founder sells 100% of his holdings).

Namecoin: This is a Bitcoin fork that aims to create decentralized web domains (similar to the concept of ENS via the ".eth" extension). Its price once soared to ~$13, but soon fell into a trough. From the lowest point to the highest point, its price increased by about 30 times. In fact, it still exists today, currently trading at nearly $1.

Peercoin (PPC): This is one of the earliest Proof-of-Stake tokens (the mechanism used to secure ETH today), and it experienced two major runs. The first was in 2013, and the other was in 2017 when the ETH 1CO craze broke out. Its price once soared to ~$7, a 60-70x increase. Naturally, it didn’t gain mainstream adoption and eventually fell to $0.42. (The next conclusion is that, except for pure Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect or LUNA, nothing else on the market will actually go to zero.)

The Craze: Bitcoin eventually reached $1,200, and these cryptocurrencies rose due to the increased interest in crypto. Any project that posted on BitcoinTalk could rise rapidly based on speculation alone. The closest thing to this today is probably a Memecoin promoted by a celebrity or named after a celebrity.

Mt. Gox Crash: The party was over when Mt. Gox crashed. The crash was due to a major hack, which caused a huge drop in the price of Bitcoin, about 85-90% (depending on how you look at the bottom), and Altcoins fell more than 99%.

and then during the bear market, many interesting events occurred. Ethereum was born as a smart contract platform with the goal of creating programmable money. This was a true innovation because it not only allowed people to transfer tokens, but also created smart contracts, which completely changed the rules of the game.

Like many things in the cryptocurrency space, Ethereum comes with some of the usual risks. Ethereum's DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) was hacked, losing more than $100 million, which ultimately led to the blockchain forking into two chains, ETH and ETC. To this day, some people still think that the decision to fork was wrong, but we are not going to discuss this today, just a brief review of this period of history.

Around 2016, people realized that new tokens could be issued on the Ethereum blockchain, which gave rise to the initial coin offering (ICO). In 1CO, the project party sold tokens directly to investors. In 2017, the 1CO craze officially broke out, and many scam projects you can think of emerged at this time.

Ethereum (ETH): Since ETH is required to issue these tokens, it has driven the rapid rise of ETH prices, soaring from about $8 to $1,400 in January 2018, which was an almost unimaginable return at the time. Currently, ETH is trading at around $3,650.

Ripple (XRP): Ripple is still seen as a “bank coin” and the theory is that it will replace SWIFT (the international money clearing system) overnight as the de facto financial standard. Despite being centralized (but most people don’t mind), it has attracted millions. The price of Ripple has soared from about 1 cent to $3.80 and is currently trading at $2.41.

Oddly, the investor base for Ripple is still mainly retail investors. You can see a similar phenomenon in the recent rally - Ripple dominated TikTok and attracted a lot of discussion, even asking “what if it gets the same market cap as Bitcoin?” This “four trillion dollar market cap” discussion is a bit unbelievable.

Litecoin: As mentioned earlier, Litecoin has risen again, with the price soaring to $360. Although Charlie Lee sold all his Litecoin, it still rose again in 2021 to $384!

EOS: EOS raised $4 billion through ICO and called itself the "Ethereum Killer". Its price once soared to $22, but it has not been able to reach a new high since then.

NEO: Another project that calls itself an "Ethereum Killer". It was called "China's Ethereum". At that time, NEO's price rose from $0.20 to $200, achieving a 1,000-fold return.

Bitcoin Cash: Roger Ver was once a well-known figure in the Bitcoin circle. He participated in the debate over large blocks and supported Bitcoin Cash. At block 478,559 in August 2017, users who held 1 Bitcoin would receive 1 Bitcoin Cash. Due to Roger Ver's support, the price of Bitcoin Cash once soared to about $3,800, but then gradually faded out of people's sight.

Other Ethereum Killers: During this period, some other tokens were also promoted as "Ethereum Killers" (such as ADA, Tron, etc.). If a token has a "white paper", it seems to be able to drive its price to a 10x or 100x surge. Other tokens, like Filecoin and Tezos, also went live during this period.

Yield Scams: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius, and Voyager were the first yield scams, you’d be wrong! In fact, the first large-scale yield Ponzi scheme was Bitconnect, and many people lost millions of dollars.

Regulators Step In: Just like the 2021 cycle, regulators stepped in and Ponzi schemes broke out again, destroying the entire industry. The SEC began to go after projects like EOS, and the market experienced a solid 85% correction, with Bitcoin prices falling to around $3,500 by March 2020.

During that period, most tokens were just scams, so the Altcoin market experienced a crash of almost -99.999999%. At that time, if your token appeared in a Super Bowl ad, its price could increase fivefold in an instant. For example, VIBE is a typical example.

VIBE’s price once soared from $0.04 to over $2, but eventually its total market cap fell to just $262.

2021, for well-known reasons, everyone worked from home, staring at computers and phones. The US government printed $10 trillion in currency, and that’s just the US government’s spending.

DeFi projects have driven liquidity mining, NFTs have made JPEG images mainstream (selling for millions of dollars), and Memecoin’s valuation has reached ridiculous levels. Bitcoin broke $69,000, ETH reached $4,800, and the total cryptocurrency market cap exceeded $3 trillion in November 2021.

Dogecoin: It started as a joke, but with Elon Musk’s interest in the coin, its price began to rise parabolically, becoming a hot topic on the forum platform Reddit. Today, it has almost become Elon’s meme coin, representing the government efficiency department. The price soared from about 0.5 cents to 74 cents, an increase of about 15,000%.

Solana: Promoted as the next "Ethereum killer", it attracted a lot of attention with its fast transaction speed and low fees. This was mainly promoted by SBF (now in prison). The price soared from $1 to about $260, an increase of 26,000%.

Shiba Inu: An emoji coin that imitates Dogecoin, creating a large number of millionaires. If you look at the market value of almost zero, it has increased by 500,000%.

DeFi Token: DeFi Tokens such as AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, and YFI have increased by 10 times to 50 times, and the decentralized finance (DeFi) locked funds (TVL) have exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars. Today, the TVL of many DeFi projects is even higher than it was then!

NFTs: CryptoPunks: Sold for millions of dollars, and the cheapest CryptoPunk costs more than 100 ETH. Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): Became a cultural phenomenon, and the lowest price reached incredible levels.

Airdrop Madness: For some old users of some projects, just owning a .eth domain worth $100 can get a $40,000 Airdrop. You can even get 2% in a day or week by crossing a bridge (completing certain actions). NFT projects like BAYC have also Airdropped a large number of other highly valued NFTs, and the total Airdrop amount is as high as billions of dollars.

Even crazier... almost all tokens are rising, and tokens like SAFEMOON are promoted by people like Dave Portnoy. Celebrities like Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton are also endorsing various projects. Tom Brady and Stephen Curry are promoting cryptocurrency exchanges. Even the now-defunct FTX once paid for the naming rights of the Miami Heat. FTX (now defunct) even bought the naming rights of the NBA Miami Heat.

Ponzi Schemes: A large number of Ponzi schemes have emerged. While some have accused us of being involved in these scams, we were not. Fortunately, many people have managed to avoid large losses. It is never a wise move to invest in these products and entrust your assets to others.

Death Spiral: As liquidity began to dry up (the financial assistance previously provided to these projects no longer appeared), we saw the collapse of the aforementioned Ponzi schemes. In addition, FTX collapsed due to stealing user funds, and then the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stepped in to regulate again. Various large-scale scams and leeks have ultimately led to a period of strict regulation of the entry and exit channels of the crypto industry.

1. Take Profits in Time: The market moves quickly, and you are likely to feel greedy. If you find yourself saying "I really wish I could buy 2 times more of XYZ Token", then you should probably sell half of your position and earn your gains contentedly. It doesn't matter if you sell Bitcoin, Ethereum or stablecoins, the key is not to be greedy.

1. Hype cycles are repetitive: Each alt-season has a narrative theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or Memecoins. If you find a theme, it’s best to stick with it because the knowledge you accumulate in that area tends to disappear quickly at the end of the cycle. Instead of jumping around, focus on one area and pick the final victory.

2. Risk management is critical: The returns are very impressive, but everyone’s situation is different. You are different from me, and I am different from my neighbor. Make a plan that works for you and stick to it, don’t keep adjusting your goals because someone with $100,000 said “$10 million is not enough for retirement.”

3. Survivors will thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate every cycle. If a project has been around for this long, the risk of it going to zero is relatively low. If Solana can find practical applications that surpass Pump.fun in 2025, it may also be close to this level.

Have we learned anything from Ponzi schemes? Actually, no. From what we have seen, people still don’t understand the concept of “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins”. You can buy crypto stocks or other crypto leveraged asset investments at a brokerage firm, but understand that if you hold these stocks or crypto ETFs, you don’t actually own any crypto. You can never know what these companies or projects will do with your invested assets.

In the bull market, we are often criticized for not participating in the hype of the latest Memecoin. Although these speculations seem to be hot at the moment, if you look closely, you will find that those who stick to their strategies and keep calm have gradually accumulated.

In contrast, those speculators who only want to get rich quickly through “10x returns” may receive market attention in the short term, but their funds and strategies are far from comparable to those anonymous big players who continue to invest steadily and accumulate wealth every month.

These big players usually have a more solid financial foundation and clearer long-term plans. In the end, the performance and data of the market will prove what kind of strategy is the key to success. Finally, I wish you all good luck in 2025.