This edition of the newsletter presents a plausible thesis about how crypto markets have evolved beyond four-year Bitcoin halving cycles into shorter, narrative-driven periods with Bitcoin stabilising through institutional adoption while alts remain volatile. The article analyses performance across various token categories since August 2024, emphasising the need for investors to stay informed and adaptable in this new, reflexive market environment. We'll also share some interesting articles, portfolio updates and market highlights.

1. Research Articles

a) A Tale of Cross-Chain Verification
• The article traces the evolution of cross-chain verification from early trust-based models (trusted validators and multi-signature bridges) to modern trustless and customizable verification mechanisms that leverage cryptographic primitives like light clients, optimistic verification, and zero-knowledge proofs.
• The author argues that as the industry moves toward a modular interoperability framework, verification specialists and verification marketplaces will emerge, allowing developers to select verification methods based on their specific security, speed, and cost requirements rather than being locked into rigid, one-size-fits-all solutions.

A Tale of Cross Chain Verification

An extensive guide on cross-chain verification, verification marketplaces, and modular interoperability future

https://www.decipherclub.com

b) The Future of Onchain Liquidity is Here via Coinbase Verified Pools
• Coinbase has launched Verified Pools, a curated selection of liquidity pools built on Uniswap v4 protocol that integrates KYC verification with smart contract transparency to create a trusted onchain trading environment.
• The service, available in select jurisdictions including the U.S. and Singapore, aims to serve both institutional clients (offering concentrated liquidity and controlled access) and retail traders (providing simplified onchain trading with verified liquidity) through Prime Onchain Wallet or Coinbase Wallet integration while maintaining non-custodial control of assets.

Coinbase 🛡️

@coinbase

Introducing Coinbase Verified Pools, a trusted way to seamlessly trade onchain.

Dive in. ↓

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4:18 PM • Mar 18, 2025

c) The State of Stablecoins 2025: Supply, Adoption & Market Trends
• The stablecoin market has experienced significant growth, reaching $214 billion in supply with $35 trillion in transfer volume over the past year, with USDT remaining the largest by supply (64% market share) while USDC leads in transfer volume (66% market share).
• Notable trends include the rise of Ethena's USDe as the third-largest stablecoin, Sky's rebranding from MakerDAO introducing USDS with regulatory-compliant features, Base surpassing Ethereum as the leading blockchain for stablecoin transfers, and the emergence of regional stablecoins to support local currency transactions in global markets.

Dune

@Dune

1/ Stablecoins are reshaping finance

Explore all insights, market trends, asset deep dives, and more in "The State of Stablecoins 2025"— a comprehensive report by Dune & @artemis

Link at the end of the thread

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1:00 PM • Mar 18, 2025

2. Portfolio Highlights

a) zkPass
• zkPass is a protocol leveraging Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKPs), Multi-Party Computation (MPC), and 3P-TLS to enable privacy-preserving data verification across various sectors including finance, healthcare, and education.
• The technology allows users to prove specific attributes without revealing sensitive information, using a hybrid approach that combines proxy mode and MPC mode for flexibility, with applications including zkKYC for identity verification, secure financial transactions, and private sharing of medical records.

zkPass: Enabling Verifiable Data Composability

zkPass is redefining privacy & data verification by integrating ZKPs, Multi-Party Computation (MPC), and 3P-TLS. It enables verifiable, privacy-preserving data sharing across finance, healthcare, etc.

https://www.shoal.gg

b) Particle Network
• Particle Network is rolling out Universal Accounts (UAs) in three phases to enable chain-agnostic Web3 experiences where users can access any asset on any blockchain through a single account.
• Their roadmap includes a proprietary launch with their own applications like UniversalX, followed by permissioned expansion with select partners, and finally permissionless deployment where any dApp can integrate Universal Accounts, all supported by the Particle Chain that coordinates cross-chain transactions.

Cracking Universal Accounts' Adoption: Rollout Roadmap

The vision is simple, yet powerful: One account, one balance, any chain. Getting there may be trickier-but we believe Universal Accounts, with a strategic go-to-market, can become a backbone for the ecosystem, facilitating the unification of users and liquidity across Web3. Today, we're thrilled to share our strategic roadmap

https://blog.particle.network

c) Iota
• IOTA Identity is a decentralized identity framework that has entered its Alpha Release, combining W3C Decentralized Identity Standards with IOTA's blockchain to provide self-sovereign identity, verifiable credentials, and privacy-first interactions.
• It enables individuals, organizations, and IoT devices to create tamper-proof digital identities where data integrity is ensured through an immutable ledger while keeping verifiable credentials off-chain for enhanced privacy and user control across sectors like finance, healthcare, and supply chain.

IOTA Identity Alpha Release

Secure, Decentralized, and Scalable Digital Identity TL;DR: IOTA Identity is a decentralized identity framework that brings self-sovereign identity, verifiable credentials, and privacy-first digital interactions to the upcoming IOTA Mainnet. Now in Alpha Release, it migrates from the previous Stardust VM to the more powerful MoveVM, offering enhanced on-chain programmability

https://blog.iota.org

3. Boom and Bust: The Reflexivity of the Crypto Market

The Changing Market Structure of Crypto
For years, crypto participants have been conditioned to the market trading in 4 year cycles, pegged to Bitcoin’s halving events. However, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs have transformed Bitcoin into an institutionally investable asset class. These ETFs have established a more consistent baseline demand, smoothing out BTC’s volatility. This is one of the reasons as to why crypto is evolving beyond this rigid structure. Instead, the market now experiences shorter bursts of outperformance and underperformance, driven by liquidity flows, investor positioning, and changing risk sentiment. While Bitcoin is experiencing increased price stability, altcoins remain as volatile as ever, still subject to reflexive cycles of euphoria and panic.

On August 5, 2024, global financial markets experienced a significant downturn, marking a local bottom for risk-on assets, including both stocks and cryptocurrencies. This sharp decline was primarily triggered by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) unexpected decision to raise its benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, a move that caught investors off guard and led to widespread market volatility. The main implication of this was the unwinding of the yen carry trade, which exerted significant selling pressure on global equities and other risk assets.

The market quickly shifted as bullish catalysts emerged, most notably Donald Trump’s election victory, which signaled regulatory reform and a pro-crypto stance from the new SEC leadership. This ushered in a period of euphoric outperformance, often dubbed the "Trump Trade," as investors anticipated a more favorable environment for digital assets. Over the next few months, the market experienced a wave of risk-on sentiment, with capital rotating aggressively into altcoins. Now, with the initial euphoria cooling, we take a closer look at how leading tokens have performed since then, evaluating their resilience, volatility, and broader market trends.

Layer 1s

Despite macro uncertainty, $BTC and $BNB have demonstrated the highest relative strength, holding up better than other L1s. $BTC remains propped up by ETF flows, increasing institutional adoption and Trump's executive orders for a strategic Bitcoin reserve - reinforcing its position as the market’s reserve asset. Meanwhile, $BNB has maintained dominance as the top centralised exchange (CEX) token, consistently staying ahead of trends with constant airdrops for $BNB holders during new listings, swift token listings, innovative initiatives like Binance Alpha 2.0, and deeper integration with on-chain ecosystems—increasing accessibility for users.

$ETH and $AVAX have significantly underperformed this cycle, primarily due to a lack of new, impactful initiatives—a crucial factor in crypto’s attention-driven market. Without strong narratives or upgrades that capture interest, they have struggled to keep pace with competitors. $SOL, on the other hand, dominated the L1 narrative, largely due to pump.fun, a meme token launchpad that drew massive user engagement. The blockchain proved its resilience under high transaction loads while maintaining low fees, successfully onboarding retail users and even securing high-profile token launches, including Trump’s token. However, this retail speculation also made Solana a prime venue for value extraction, leading to recent underperformance as the hype cycle cooled.

During the market’s euphoric phase, $HYPE, $SUI, and $S emerged as some of the most reflexive performers, each leveraging a compelling narrative to attract capital inflows. $HYPE, a perpetual DEX, gained traction through a fair launch that rewarded early adopters, fostering a strong whale community that reinforced its price momentum. $SUI, positioned as Solana’s direct competitor, capitalised on its low fees and high transaction speeds, drawing liquidity from those seeking an alternative high-performance blockchain. Meanwhile, $S focused on enhancing the existing Fantom network, introducing higher scalability and faster transactions to position itself as a next-generation infrastructure upgrade. 

AI x Robotics Tokens

Among AI and robotics tokens, $GEOD stands out with strong relative strength, positioning itself as a potential leader in the emerging robotics sector. As the AI sector matures, attention may shift toward robotics as the next evolution of the narrative, giving $GEOD a strategic edge in capturing capital rotation and long-term market positioning.

Initially marketed as the go-to platform for DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure) projects, $PEAQ struggled to maintain momentum as market attention pivoted elsewhere. Crypto thrives on narratives, and as AI Agents overtook DePIN as the dominant trend, $PEAQ was left behind, ultimately leading to underperformance. Without a clear role in the evolving AI landscape, its relevance has diminished in the current market cycle.

$Virtual and $ai16z emerged as the two frontrunners in the AI agent narrative, each securing dominance on their respective chains. $Virtual, built on Base, positioned itself as the premier AI agent launchpad, integrating a tokenomics-driven flywheel effect that reinforced its growth. Meanwhile, $ai16z, built on Solana, became the leading AI agent framework, setting the standard for open-source agentic development. By adopting a bazaar-style approach to AI development, $ai16z gained traction among projects seeking a decentralized, collaborative ecosystem. Both assets experienced high reflexivity, rallying as the AI narrative strengthened and capital flowed aggressively into the sector.

Dino Tokens

$XRP has emerged as one of the strongest-performing legacy tokens, bolstered by favourable regulatory trends following Trump’s election and Gary Gensler’s resignation. With the SEC taking a more industry-friendly stance, Ripple may see its ongoing legal battle ease, particularly if the agency withdraws its appeal against $XRP’s $125M penalty—a move that would remove a significant overhang on the token.

Many dino tokens rely heavily on strong community backing to maintain price momentum, and $DOT is no exception. Historically, its value has been tied to its dedicated supporter base rather than new innovations or major adoption breakthroughs. As attention shifts toward newer, narrative-driven sectors like AI and memecoins, $DOT may struggle to sustain its current rally. 

Despite underperforming relative to other legacy tokens, IOTA remains focused on long-term adoption rather than speculative hype. Once primarily an IoT-focused blockchain, it has successfully transitioned into a scalable smart contract platform, now supporting dual virtual machines and achieving 50,000 TPS with sub-second finality. Beyond technical improvements, IOTA has made significant strides in regulatory and enterprise adoption. It was a finalist in the European Blockchain Service Infrastructure (EBSI) program, became the first DLT foundation registered with Abu Dhabi Global Market, and is actively working on real-world applications like the Trade Logistics Information Pipeline (TLIP) in Kenya and digital product passports aligned with EU regulations. 

Concluding Thoughts
The idea of fixed four-year crypto cycles may no longer hold true. Instead, we are seeing shorter, more fragmented periods of outperformance, driven by macro shifts, regulatory changes, and fast-moving narratives. In this evolving landscape, staying engaged is more important than ever.

For crypto natives, the lesson is clear—staying informed and adaptable is key to capturing opportunities. Rather than fully logging off during downturns, those who continuously research, track emerging narratives, and recognise when to go risk-on will be best positioned to navigate this new, reflexive market environment.

*Note: This data reflects conditions as from August 5, 2024, following the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark rates from 0.1% to 0.25%, increasing the risk of the yen carry trade unwinding.

**Disclosure: Signum Capital holds positions in some of the aforementioned companies. The information provided on this newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute professional nor investment advice.