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Everyone who is in the onchain world in some capacity has heard something like this:
We're so early.
You're so early.
You're not bullish enough.
Don't rush it. It takes time.
There's a growing segment of the onchain population that is increasingly weary of these statements. The truth is, Bitcoin has been around since 2009, Ethereum smart contracts since 2015, and NFTs since 2017 (plus or minus). We're talking 15 years, 9 years, and 7 years respectively. Factor in tech, especially blockchain, operates in dog years, one can figure we are not early anymore. We're lagging, if anything.
The analogy often given is the advent and adoption of the Internet. It is one I like to give too, because I'm old enough to have lived through it. But as I think about it, I am not sure if this is the best analogy. Connecting one computer to another is not something new, in fact, I remember my father routinely doing this in the early 1980s (BBS), and I myself was using services such as Prodigy and CompuServe a few years later. The Internet was more of an iteration, but the underlying technology and paradigm was not new.
Blockchain technology is not an iteration. It's radically different which is why many are steering away from calling it web3 because it isn't another iteration of the web. It's decentralization and ownership of your digital data, regardless of how it is accessed.
Given this, I am starting to lean more towards using personal computing as a better analogy. Granted, this is one is a much harder one to relate to because it predates most millennials and even some Gen Xers, but it certainly is more applicable.
It is unclear exactly when the first computer was invented (research this and you'll see 200 BC, 1812, 1842, 1951, and more). We'll limit the scope of the conversation to the first modern personal computer, and many would agree it was the Apple I released in 1976. As you can see, the design looks quite...different than anything Apple has released recently.
Here are some other milestones you should be aware of:
1981: MS-DOS operating -- your PC-based system was almost useless without it
1986: Intel i386 processor to handle multi-tasking
1993: Intel Pentium processor: first superscalar processor (can handle two instructions at the same time)
1995: WIndows 95, the first mainstream graphical user interface for an x86 system
Mind you, a system running Windows 95 today is by no means a modern miracle (this was almost 30 years ago!), but it can be argued since then, the UI has been mostly the same and hardware innovations have been iterative (faster processors, more RAM, more storage, etc.)
1) Are we really that early? Yes.
2) Is it really going to take nearly 48 years to get widespread adoption?! No.
3) Then how long will it take? I don't know.
4) Why don't you know? Here's why:
Personal computing was facing one major headwind which was the convergence of easy-to-use UI to consumer behavior. Onchain technology is facing two: the former and regulatory challenges on major fronts. Some regulatory concerns are reasonable yet solvable, but many others are rooted in special interests because blockchain technology threatens to eliminate entire industries. For example, in the US, if you buy a house with a loan, you typically are required to also have title insurance (which costs thousands of dollars) which protects both the buyer and seller if there is an issue with the home's title. With onchain technology, there cannot be any title issues since it resides on a decentralized ledger which serves as the single source of truth. Title insurance industry? Gone. Credit card companies skimming 2-3% as transaction fees? Won't happen.
In the US, we'll need other countries to continue to be warm to blockchain technology and unfortunately probably have a major breakthrough for the US government to wake up, ease the regulatory concerns and help steward innovation. It may sound dire, but if you look at the course of US history, we often were not the first to do it, but once we did it, we did it well, and virtually every other country followed suit.
I expect this to be no different. It'll still be a bumpy few years (certainly more than 1-2 years), and you'll continue to be called crazy, but remember -- the underlying technology is not only sound but also required when artificial technology becomes ubiquitous in the future.
Build. YOU are a builder. You do not need to be technical to build. You do not need to have a background in product, marketing, or sales. Anyone and everyone can build. It can be as simple as posting photographs you took on Zora (which is as easy as posting as on Instagram, if you use the Zora app).
You have two options. In a few years from now, you can watch documentaries about the people who helped build the onchain universe. Or you can be one of the people interviewed for the documentary because you helped build the onchain universe! Where are you going to sit?
The Blockchain Experience is not only a podcast, but we also have a collective of other builders and consumer crypto maxis. We're eager to help you, as a public good (no expectations of anything in return). Join our channel on Warpcast, and ask away. And if you need more motivation, check out this video from the Head of Base, Jesse Pollack.
Happy building!
meta-david
