Pep Guardiola's Manchester City have been the dominant force in English football for nearly a decade, but the 2024/25 season has cast a shadow over that legacy. Knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid in the playoffs and with a faltering league position, the Catalan genius faces unprecedented scrutiny. Nine years into his tenure, has Guardiola's magic run its course, or can he reclaim the heights that once defined his reign?

Guardiola's Playing Style: A Tactical Revolution

When Guardiola arrived at Manchester City in 2016, he brought with him a possession-based philosophy that redefined English football. Rooted in the principles he honed at Barcelona, his approach emphasised ball dominance. City's teams controlled games through relentless passing and high possession percentages. Positional play was another key tenet of Pep's teams. Players were meticulously positioned to create passing triangles, ensuring constant options for the ball carrier. This fluid, structured system suffocated opponents, making it nearly impossible to win the ball back. Off the ball, City were ferocious, pressing opponents in coordinated waves to regain possession in dangerous areas. Innovation in positional play may turn out to be Pep's defining tactical revolution. His use of inverted full-backs (moving into midfield) and false nines (strikers dropping deep to link play) became hallmarks of his tactical ingenuity.

This philosophy delivered unparalleled success, with six Premier League titles, a Champions League crown, and a slew of domestic cups. The 2022/23 treble, securing the Premier League, Champions League, and FA Cup stands as the pinnacle of his achievements, epitomised by their technical superiority and tactical dominance.

Pep's Impact on English Football

Guardiola's style didn't just win trophies; it elevated the tactical sophistication of the entire Premier League. Rivals were forced to adapt, leading to a league-wide shift toward possession-oriented, high-pressing systems. Notable examples include Arsenal under Mikel Arteta. Guardiola's protégé implemented a mirror-image system, blending City's positional play with youthful dynamism. Arsenal's rise to title contenders reflects this influence.

At Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp's approach was initially more direct, however, Liverpool have since evolved to incorporate elements of Guardiola's possession game, balancing their high-octane pressing with greater control.

Even mid-table teams like Brighton and Bournemouth have adopted similar principles, emphasising build-up play and pressing triggers. Guardiola's influence has made the Premier League a tactical chessboard, where technical proficiency is now a baseline requirement and we've seen how teams with more traditional and rigid tactical setups struggle. Cough, cough Spurs.

The Evolution of Pep's Tactics

Guardiola's genius lies in his ability to adapt, and his tenure at City has seen several tactical shifts in response to challenges. One of the most significant changes came with Erling Haaland's arrival in 2022. The Norwegian striker added a new dimension to City's attack, blending their intricate build-up play with a direct, vertical threat. Haaland's presence allowed City to stretch defences, creating space for midfielders like Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden. His record-breaking 52 goals in 2022/23 epitomised this shift, as City became a machine that could dismantle teams with both patience and pace.

To accommodate Haaland's role, Guardiola tweaked City's defensive structure, relying on a higher defensive line to compress space and maintain control. This high line, however, has become a double-edged sword, leaving them vulnerable to counter-attacks.

Despite these adaptations, the 2024/25 season has exposed vulnerabilities in Guardiola's system. The season-ending injury to Rodri, City's midfield metronome, has disrupted their control while ageing stars like Kevin de Bruyne and Bernardo Silva struggle to maintain their peak form. City's once-feared high defensive line has been repeatedly exploited, a weakness that Tottenham ruthlessly exposed in their 4-0 rout at the Etihad, and likewise when Arsenal beat them 5-1 at the Emirates.

The Changing Game: A League That’s Caught Up

English football has evolved in response to Guardiola's influence, and the Premier League is now a more competitive, tactically diverse landscape. Teams have learned to counter City's possession game with precision pressing, rapid transitions, and tactical discipline. This shift has made it harder for City to sustain their dominance. Teams like Brighton, Tottenham, and Newcastle have mastered the art of countering City's possession game. They sit deep, absorb pressure, and exploit gaps with pace and precision.

In the 4-0 defeat to Spurs, City's 68% possession was rendered meaningless as Tottenham bypassed their press with ease, exploiting gaps left by an ageing defence. Son Heung-min's pace and directness tore through City's high line, highlighting tactical shortcomings.

Rivals have become more tactically flexible, adapting their game plans to neutralise City's strengths. For example, Arsenal's blend of possession and pressing has closed the gap, while Liverpool's high-octane style has evolved to include greater control. Even mid-table sides have grown bolder, sensing that City's aura of invincibility has faded. Teams like Bournemouth have caused upsets by exploiting City's defensive frailties on set pieces and transitions.

The Rodri Problem

Rodri's injury has exposed City's reliance on a single player for midfield stability. Without him, their possession game lacks rhythm, and their press is less coordinated. Opponents have capitalised on this, targeting City's midfield with aggressive pressing and quick transitions.

These changes reflect a broader trend: the Premier League has decoded Guardiola's blueprint. His system, once revolutionary, is now understood—and countered—by the league's best. City's struggles in 2024/25 are not just a dip in form. They are a sign that the game has caught up.

Off-field challenges compound the misery. Manchester City faces 115 charges from the Premier League over alleged financial rule breaches, with a hearing looming that could destabilise the club. The departures of key figures like director of football Txiki Begiristain and executive Omar Berrada signal a shift in the club's foundation, raising doubts about long-term stability.

What’s Next for Guardiola and City?

With his contract extended to 2027, Guardiola's commitment suggests he believes in a turnaround. But the road ahead is steep. Tactical adjustments are needed to address the changing dynamics of the game.

Young talents like Phil Foden, Omar Marmoush, Savinho and Nico Gonzalez offer hope, and City's financial muscle will fuel a squad refresh in the summer. Yet, the challenges are multifaceted: an ageing core, off-field uncertainty, and a league growing more competitive by the season. Guardiola's ability to adapt has been tested before, after Liverpool's 2019/20 title win, he reinvented City to dominate again. But this time feels different. The tactical evolution of the Premier League, combined with City's internal struggles, presents a puzzle even Guardiola may struggle to solve.

Legacy at a Crossroads

Pep Guardiola's legacy at Manchester City is already monumental. His influence on English football is undeniable, from the tactical innovations that reshaped the league to the trophies that filled the Etihad cabinet. His possession-based philosophy has raised the technical bar, forcing rivals to evolve and adapt. But this campaign feels like a crossroads. Success in football is measured in silverware, and for a club of City's ambition, anything less than dominance is a letdown.

Pep appears to be adamant about turning things around, starting with a €218 million spending spree in January, mass exits of key players likely at the end of the season and another massive transfer window lined up for the Summer. He does however risk diminishing his legacy by staying on longer. We've seen this play out before, with managers holding on to past glory in the hope of turning a club's fortunes around. Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho are two modern-day examples of managers who diminished their reputations by not realising the modern game had passed them by. Sadly, "Leave the football before the football leaves you" is not just a saying that applies to players.

If Pep can't halt the slide and restore City's dominance, his reign risks being remembered as one that burned brightly but ultimately faded. Should he defy the odds, this season could become a mere blip in a dynasty few can rival.

The question looms: can Pep Guardiola summon one more masterpiece, or is this the beginning of the end for football's greatest ever tactician?