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Moonbirds Analysis

What’s NFT?

NFT stands for Non-Fungible Token, what non fungible means is that it's unique and can't be replaced with something else. For example, if you go on OPENSEA and search for BAYC collection, you can see that each BAYC is unique, they differ from cryptocurrencies, which are fungible. For instance, if you traded 1 ETH u will get 1 ETH back, because it's the same.

It all started with Proof, it's a 1k NFTs collection like an exclusive membership which provides access to private discord channel,  PROOF podcast, in-person events. Proof and Moonbirds are founded by Kevin Rose, an American Internet entrepreneur. During a recent interview, Kevin explained he doesn’t want Proof Collective to be an alpha group just talked about trading, flipping. He wants it to be a place for like minded people to discuss, share their favorite NFTs and hold for the long term. 

** Proof Performance since launch**

Proof launched in last December, the mint price was 1ETH. It went as high as 130 ETH floor price in April, so that was a 130x in just 4 months. Current floor is 74.98ETH.

** After this huge success. Kevin launched their second collection in the Proof ecosystem which is Moonbirds, each Moonbird gives the owner access to Proof ecosystem such as private discord channel, IRL events, and something called nesting. According to their website, nested Moonbird will upgrade to new tier levels to unlock enhanced drops and rewards.**

Moonbirds performance since launch

Moonbirds was minted out on 17th April,2022, mint price was 2.5 ETH. It went as high as 38.5 ETH floor price on 22th April, so that was a 15.4x in just 5days. Current floor is 18ETH.

What's the roadmap and future investment value

There is no roadmap, on their website Proof builders stated they like to under promise and over deliver. But they did mention some future plans such as The Highrise, it’s their own metaverse project. It will be a dramatic departure for the Proof and Moonbirds holders. Moreover, Kevin Rose also mentioned Moonbirds holders will get free metaverse land but not as many as Proof holders.

** Future investment value**

For myself, I definitely think there is still future investment value for Moonbirds, but I will not invest in Moonbirds. Here is why

1.Floor price is too high. 

  According to opensea, the current floor price of moonbirds is 18ETH (26.5KUSD),    26.5k isn’t affordable for many personal investors.

2.Not much upside potenial 

  According to the current floor, it might double or triple in the next NFT bull market. However, 2x,3x is relatively low ROI in the crypto/NFT market, plus buyers need to liquidate a significant amount of capital.

3. Volume is king

  One of the weaknesses of NFT is that it does not have enough liquidity. Normally a collection could have so much volume during the first week since its launch. Below is the Moonbirds sales history graph, it is obvious that most of the transactions were made during the first week, after the first week, Moonbirds only got less than 10 transactions per day on average. So that means if the owner wants to resell it is quite difficult to sell it immediately.

Moonbirds sales history graph
Moonbirds sales history graph

4. NFT is in its bear market

Opensea daily volume graph
Opensea daily volume graph

This is the Opensea daily volume graph. This graph clearly shows the NFT volume is decreasing, as a personal investor I would suggest don’t make any trade right now because you might 99.9% lose your money. Better to wait for a good entry point.

How to improve this project's development?

I believe Kevin Rose has enough connection, network and resources in the Web2 and Web3 space, many people also recognized his projects. The only  improvement I can think of is more people, this space needs more people. Once those people from the web2 get into the NFT space, I believe Proof and moonbirds will be the few popular NFT collections that stand next to BAYC and CryptoPunk. 

** References:**

<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RAFSFowZSk ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RAFSFowZSk)

<https://opensea.io/collection/proof-collective ](https://opensea.io/collection/proof-collective)

<https://collective.proof.xyz/ ](https://collective.proof.xyz/)

<https://opensea.io/collection/proof-moonbirds ](https://opensea.io/collection/proof-moonbirds)

<https://www.coingecko.com/en/nft/moonbirds ](https://www.coingecko.com/en/nft/moonbirds)

<https://www.coingecko.com/en/nft/proof-collective ](https://www.coingecko.com/en/nft/proof-collective)

<https://dune.com/sealaunch/Proof-Moonbirds ](https://dune.com/sealaunch/Proof-Moonbirds)

https://dune.com/rchen8/opensea

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