<100 subscribers
Introduction
Recently, the Meme market has shown clear signs of "ebbing," and Solana is facing an upcoming massive token unlock, which is truly a double whammy. With Solana's pressure mounting, many are questioning: Has Solana's "good fortune" really run out?
01 Meme Tide Recedes
On-chain data shows that since February, the transaction volume on Solana has plummeted sharply, and the number of launches related to Meme platforms has also decreased significantly. Popular projects in the Solana ecosystem have all seen substantial declines, and various FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) voices have re-emerged on social platforms.
Initially, Meme rose amid the calls for "anti-VC," "no catch-up," and "fair launch." However, after the Meme boom, various institutions became the "whales" and quickly occupied advantageous ecological positions. The crypto community soon realized that without continuous capital injection, Meme projects launched fairly were like fleeting flowers. As a result, most people ended up in the arms of these institutions, taking over their positions.
Then came the presidential coins representing the cream of the crop. The Trump family's tokens first drained the market's liquidity, and then the Milei tokens dealt a heavy blow. It was later discovered that these celebrity projects were all backed by a team of manipulators, and some were even interconnected. Behind every hotly pursued project was an invisible hand controlling the game. The crypto community suddenly felt like they were being repeatedly trampled on. Some KOLs even said, "We just want to go mainstream, not to let celebrities from outside the circle come in and cash out."
Ultimately, the rise and burst of the Meme bubble exposed the "evil" in human nature. Greedy retail investors, who engaged in excessive speculation, could not escape the fate of being the "bag holders." This dealt a heavy blow to the Meme market and was like a slap in the face for Solana's ecosystem, which had rapidly gained momentum thanks to the Meme boom.
02 The Inopportune Massive Unlocking
While Solana was still immersed in the sorrow of the Meme ebb, another desperate piece of news came: 11.2 million SOL tokens will be unlocked on March 1st. Initially, people mistakenly thought this was a planned unlocking as part of the token economic model, which usually has a minor impact on the market. However, this massive unlocking is actually the second wave of impact from the FTX bankruptcy.
To put it simply, these 11.2 million SOL tokens are part of the tokens sold during the FTX liquidation process. These tokens were set with a vesting schedule of 1-3 years when traded. By March 2025, the vesting period is over, and they will enter the circulating market. After FTX went bankrupt in November 2022, the huge amount of SOL held by its affiliated company, Alameda Research, became part of the liquidation assets. It is estimated that FTX/Alameda initially held about 58 million SOL, accounting for 10%-15% of Solana's total supply at the time. The bankruptcy trustee (led by John J. Ray III) subsequently sold these tokens to institutional investors at a discount. It is reported that the institutions that bought these tokens included Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, Figure Markets, and others. According to information on X and on-chain data (such as tracked by Lookonchain), the market estimates that the sale price of these tokens was about $60-$80 per token (30%-40% of the current market price).
Since the upcoming 11.2 million SOL tokens were purchased at a discount by institutions, the market expects that if no one buys them over-the-counter quickly to absorb them, the unlocking may bring significant selling pressure to SOL. This pressure has already been felt by the current market price and Solana's ecosystem community.
03 Is Solana's Good Fortune Over?
So, has Solana's "good fortune" really run out? It seems not. Both the anticipated Solana spot ETF approval this year and Trump's crypto-friendly policies can be considered as the continuation of Solana's good luck.
The Solana spot ETF, which is expected to be approved as early as June this year, is highly anticipated. Currently, on well-known prediction platforms, the probability of Solana ETF approval in 2025 is 84%, and the probability of approval before June 31 is 38%. Judging from the performance of the previously approved Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the Bitcoin spot ETF currently holds assets worth over $110 billion, while the Ethereum spot ETF holds assets exceeding $10 billion. Given Solana's institutional support rate, at least several billion dollars are expected to flow in, which should easily offset the bearish impact of the 11.2 million unlocked tokens. However, the problem is that the unlocking is imminent, while the ETF approval is still months away.
Trump's crypto-friendly policies are gradually being implemented, creating a favorable regulatory environment for the entire crypto industry. Thanks to the accelerated catalysis of the Meme boom, Solana's ecosystem has shown remarkable performance. In early 2025, Solana's DEX trading volume once surpassed Ethereum, passing the stress test smoothly. Moreover, both user numbers and activity are showing strong momentum.
Additionally, the growth rate of Solana's developer community is also quite fast. With Solana's future roadmap planning iterative upgrades to improve existing shortcomings in technical solutions, its ecosystem is attracting more and more attention. Top-tier institutions such as PayPal and Franklin Templeton have also joined in the adoption.
04 Conclusion
Whether it is the cooling of the Meme boom or the massive unlocking, these are actually short-term "growing pains" that are common in the crypto space. It cannot be concluded that Solana is going down just because of these. Moreover, with a favorable crypto regulatory environment, Solana, as the top public chain established in the United States, is even more advantageous. As for the longer-term future, only time will tell.
