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This morning, American missiles shattered the fragile equilibrium of the crypto market.
According to reports from CNN and other media outlets, U.S. President Trump ordered strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—with Fordow reportedly hit by a "full missile salvo." Although Iran claimed to have evacuated the sites in advance, the market was clearly unprepared for this sudden escalation of Middle Eastern tensions.
Market Reaction: Sharp Declines Across the Board
OKX data shows that as of press time:
BTC plunged to a low of $100,866 before rebounding slightly to $102,256, down 1.22% in 24 hours and nearing the critical $100,000 psychological threshold.
ETH dropped to $2,215, now trading at $2,263, marking a 6.67% daily decline.
Altcoins like SOL, DOGE, and PEPE fell 4–8%, mirroring the broader sell-off.
Derivatives markets saw even fiercer liquidations. Coinglass data reveals $675 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $595 million from long positions. ETH led the carnage ($275 million liquidated), followed by BTC ($151 million).
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Alternative.me) dipped from 49 (Neutral) to 42 (Fear), reflecting heightened anxiety.
Whales Battle: Accumulation vs. Short Squeeze
Despite the panic, deep-pocketed players are quietly buying the dip. On-chain analyst Yu Jian noted that a whale/institution—previously accurate in timing ETH rallies—purchased 13,498 ETH (worth $30 million) this morning. Since June 11, this entity has accumulated 130,000+ ETH at an average cost of $2,540, now sitting on $40 million in unrealized losses.
Yet bears are equally aggressive. Another whale’s short positions across 58 tokens, opened since June 16, have yielded $20.65 million in profits, including $4.2 million from ETH shorts.
Outlook: Geopolitics Meets Macro Uncertainty
This crisis has reminded markets that BTC is not "digital gold" but a "volatility amplifier." The key question now is whether the sell-off has fully priced in Middle East risks—or if there’s more pain ahead.
Geopolitical Escalation?
If Iran retaliates sharply, dragging the U.S. or Israel into deeper conflict, expect a flight to traditional safe havens (gold) and further crypto pressure.
A stalemate ("conflict without collapse") could allow sentiment to stabilize.
Fed Policy Shift?
Despite three 2024 rate cuts (totaling 100 bps), recent hawkish hints from Chair Powell suggest slower easing ahead. Market expectations for 2025 cuts have dropped from 4 to 2–3.
Rising long-term Treasury yields and a stronger USD point to global "de-risking," making crypto a first-tier liquidation target.
BTC Technical Support?
BTC currently holds $100K–$105K as a critical support zone. A breakdown below $96K–$98K could trigger deeper corrections.
Conversely, a rebound could set the stage for consolidation.
Diverging Views: ETH as a New Safe Haven?
Some analysts argue ETH is emerging as a "value anchor" amid chaos, citing:
Whale accumulation (+130K ETH in weeks).
Corporate treasury adoption (e.g., Tesla’s rumored ETH reserves).
SEC’s softer stance on DeFi regulation.
Surging ETH call options activity.
Conclusion: Chaos Breeds Opportunity
The crypto market is navigating a perfect storm: geopolitics, macro uncertainty, and overheated risk assets. Every tweet, negotiation, or airstrike can spark volatility—but the data reveals a market in strategic repositioning, not capitulation.
Key questions ahead:
Can BTC defend $100K?
Will ETH solidify its role as a "hedge within crypto"?
Are altcoins doomed to marginalization?
As FalconX notes: "BTC’s correlation with traditional risk assets is fading. Future prices will hinge on on-chain dynamics, institutional flows, and policy博弈."
In this high-stakes game, one truth remains: Disorder is the cradle of new order. Stay tuned.
Follow Odaily for real-time updates as events unfold.
