GM PRO DOers!
Today we’re going to have a bit of fun.
We’re going to predict the top of $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL this cycle.
We’re going to use charts, historical data as well as asset comparisons to build a case for the potential peak price of these 3 major assets in the coming bullrun. ⛰
As many of you know, crypto has historically moved in 4-year cycles. These cycles are oddly similar in timeframes, market structure, and even prices from one asset to another.
It’s actually extremely weird how similar each cycle is, but it gives us some great insights for predicting what might happen next.
History never repeats, but it often rhymes.
What this means is that we can use historical cycles and data to build our thesis around future cycles, but we can’t expect them to be perfectly accurate.
🚨 PSA: Anyone who tells you they can predict cycle tops is wrong. There is no perfect metric, chart, or data point that can do that. Don’t get caught up in the hype!
In today’s report, we are going to assume some numbers and create potential ranges for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL, but that does not mean these will actually happen.
Part of this is simply just a fun exercise, but part of this is also about zooming out and building a bit of a framework for the coming cycle, a starting point if you will.
It’s always great to create a thesis around your investments and then adapt and improve upon this as more data becomes available to you over time.
Once these assets pass their previous all-time highs, all technical analysis for specific prices go out the window. When we hit price discovery, that’s when the real fun begins.
But let’s get ahead of that and try to frame where we might go next.
LFG. ⏬
Crypto Cycles and Timeframes ♻️
First, let’s wrap our heads around the crypto cycles.
It is often said that crypto moves in 4-year cycles because of the Bitcoin Halving, an event that occurs every 4 years in the Bitcoin mechanism, which cuts its inflation by 50%.
This supply cut appears to be a catalyst for each cycle. Below is a simple chart showing the price cycles of Bitcoin with a blue line representing each Bitcoin Halving.
Here is another way to look at these cycles of Bitcoin with a green line signifying the tops and a red line signifying the bottoms of each cycle.
It’s best to use Bitcoin as a starting point since it has had the most complete cycles versus any other crypto asset.
Interestingly, if I show the chart of YOY (Year Over Year) change in global liquidity (the creation and destruction of new money), the tops and bottoms of the chart above match the one below almost perfectly, for every cycle!
The tops on both charts are early 2014, late 2017, and late 2021. With the bottoms being early 2015, late 2018 and late 2022.
While the Bitcoin halving is a great meme, I believe global liquidity is the real catalyst creating these cycles.
This is important to understand as we can use macro indicators to predict liquidity cycles, which would thus allow us to better predict the timeframe and severity of the coming crypto cycle.
Again, this is why the predictions below are simply a starting point that we will build on throughout this cycle.
To begin predicting prices, let’s first start by predicting the length of the coming cycle, since we have past data to help determine this.
Using the lines on the chart above, we can measure the distance between the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin cycles, as well as the top to the next top of a cycle.
Interestingly, the top to bottom of Bitcoin cycles are almost identical in terms of length. In 2014, it was 399 days from top to bottom, in 2018 it was 350 days and in 2022-23, it was once again 399 days. 🤯
For the top to top of each cycle, we only have 2 relevant cycles to look at, but they are just days apart as well. From 2014 to 2018, it was 1477 days apart, and from 2018 to 2021, it was 1407 days apart.
In the chart above, I have added a potential top and bottom for the next cycle. For the top, I used the average days between the tops of the past two cycles and for the bottom I used 399 days after the projected top, since we’ve already had that same number 2 out of 3 times in the past.
Now, we have an assumed date of October 1st, 2025 for the top of Bitcoin in the next cycle and a bottom of November 1st, 2026.
This brings us to our first means of projecting the cycle tops… Before I begin, I'd like to invite you in our PRO-only Discord channel.
You're already a PRO member and your PRO Pass (claimable at the bottom) will unlock access to our PRO-Discord channel, where I recently shared my portfolio allocations.
I loved to see other PRO members joining me in sharing their portfolios too. It was fun. If you'd like to join us, we're waiting for you in Discord. Join us here.
Linear Regression Channel On A Logarithmic Scale
We will use multiple ways of predicting the top of this cycle, but here is one that is very simple.
Technologies with network effects have exponential growth and thus should be viewed on a logarithmic scale (1, 10, 100, 1000, etc.) rather than a linear scale (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.) when looking at them long term.
This helps to better conceptualize these technologies’ potential growth, as humans often struggle to think in exponential terms. This is why so many investors struggled to buy and hold other exponential technologies like Apple, Amazon, Google over the last 2 decades (they went up too much!)
Each of these technologies with network effects, so long as those network effects don’t break, follows a similar growth path along an exponential chart.
This can be mapped out using a linear regression channel on a log scale.
Here is an example of Apple following this channel since 2002. I could show the same thing for Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, and many other network-based technologies. If you want to learn more about this check out a previous PRO report on this topic here.
Here is Bitcoin on a log scale with a regression channel that has our lines projecting the top and bottom of Bitcoin this cycle.
In the first 2 cycles, Bitcoin reached 2 standard deviations overbought (the top blue line) from the trendline (the gray line). In the last cycle, Bitcoin reached 1 standard deviation overbought from the trendline.
If Bitcoin reaches 1 standard deviation overbought from the trendline at the projected top of this cycle, that would give us a $BTC price of $1.2 million.
But this bear market was also the first time Bitcoin went below 1 standard deviation oversold (the 1st purple line), so maybe BTC is slowing down and can only reach the trend line.
That would give $BTC a price of $469k.
And even if Bitcoin remained 1 standard deviation oversold for the entire cycle, it would still give us a price of $188k.
So let’s go with a range of $188k - $1.2 million. That’s a 2.7x - 17x from the top of the last cycle.
Ok, now let’s check out Ethereum.
In the last 2 cycles, Ethereum actually topped out 1 month after Bitcoin. But, let’s just use the same time frames as Bitcoin for now since it has more data points.
In Ethereum’s first cycle, Ethereum reached 2 standard deviations overbought and in its second, it reached 1.
In both bear markets, it touched the 1 standard deviation oversold line before moving back upwards.
If Ethereum reaches just the trendline this cycle, it would top out at a price of $26.8k.
If it reached 1 standard deviation overbought like it did last cycle, it would reach $88k and if it simply went up along the 1 standard deviation oversold line then it would reach $8.5k.
That gives us a range of $8.5k - $88k, a 1.7x - 17.6x from the top of last cycle.
Solana hasn't been around long enough to be charted in a regression channel like this, so we’ll project Solana in some of the other ways.
Let’s move on to comparing similar assets to past cycles.
Past Cycles
An interesting concept I looked at last cycle was comparing Ethereum cycles to the Bitcoin cycles before it. They oddly followed very similar paths.
Below is a price chart of Ethereum in its first ever cycle and Bitcoin in its first real cycle. (Bitcoin technically had a bull run years before this one, but it was super niche, so it doesn’t reflect a typical market structure)
While the price of $BTC and $ETH were different (that’s just because of the amount of tokens available), the structure of the price action was almost identical.
We can do the same for Ethereum's second cycle vs. Bitcoin's second cycle.
This one was not as correlated, because the 2020-21 cycle had a double peak, though it definitely has some comparisons.
There is some thought that the double peak of the last cycle only occurred because FTX (and other companies) propped up the markets after the first big crash by using customer funds, essentially inflating the market cap of tokens and keeping the bull market alive.
Whether that’s accurate or not, who knows, but it could explain the big difference.
Regardless, if we zoom out and compare what could be in store for Ethereum based on Bitcoin’s previous cycle, here’s what we get…
This would put Ethereum somewhere around $16.5k at the top of the cycle, roughly a 3.4x from the previous all time high.
Even more interesting however is comparing Solana’s and Ethereum’s first cycle.
I like this more because comparing Solana and Ethereum is more like comparing apples to apples, since they are both smart contract platforms, whereas Ethereum and Bitcoin are very different things.
Here is Ethereum's first cycle versus Solana’s first cycle…
Almost identical market structure! 🤯
Now let’s add Ethereum's second cycle to the chart and see what Solana could be in store for…
Should Solana follow Ethereum’s last cycle, then $SOL would top out around $900 this cycle.
Comparing market structure and price is one thing, but this doesn’t tell enough of the story.
What’s also important when comparing cycles is looking at the market caps (aka the valuations) as it really helps to put things into perspective.
Market Cap Comparisons 💰
Market cap is calculated by multiplying the price of a token by the number of tokens in the supply, which is 21 million for Bitcoin. Last cycle, Bitcoin reached a market cap of $1.27 trillion, and the one before that $321 billion.
Bitcoin currently sits at a $725 billion market cap, putting it just behind Tesla as the 10th most valuable “company” in the world.
For a different perspective on price, we mentioned at the top that $BTC could reach anywhere between $188k - $1.2m this cycle based on the regression channel.
In terms of market cap, at a $BTC price of $188k the market cap would sit at $3.9 trillion, whereas at $1.2m the market cap would be $25.2 trillion.
Is that out of the question? Hard to say, but moving $24.5 trillion into Bitcoin by October 2025 seems like a bit of a pipe dream to me. 💤
However, one common comparison to Bitcoin is Gold, which currently holds a $12.5 trillion market cap.
If Bitcoin reached these levels, it would give it a price of $595k. Again, not sure I think it will happen this cycle, but it’s not completely unreasonable.
A better comparison for market caps would be between crypto assets like Ethereum to Bitcoin and Solana to Ethereum.
If we look at the market cap of Ethereum, last cycle it reached $571 billion, while the cycle before that, it hit $140 billion.
If we compare Ethereum’s last cycle vs Bitcoin in the 2017 cycle as we did in the price charts above, then we can see that Ethereum had 1.8x the market cap of Bitcoin.
If this cycle, Ethereum again achieves 1.8x the market cap of Bitcoin in its last cycle, that would give Ethereum a top market cap of $2.3 trillion and a price of $19.2k.
With Solana, it reached a $74.5 billion market cap in its first cycle. Interestingly only 53% of Ethereum’s market cap in its first cycle.
It’s important to note that the fully diluted market cap of Solana (taking into account the tokens that were locked up and not on circulating supply) reached $200 billion, but we can’t use this metric as these tokens were not sellable, unlike Ethereum which never had locked tokens.
That said, if in this cycle, Solana again achieves 53% of the market cap of Ethereum in its last cycle, that would give Solana a top market cap of $302 billion and a price of $714.
Of course, there is potential that Solana could gain market share and relevance over Ethereum during this cycle (I would argue it already has), so let’s look at its price if Solana matched the market cap of Ethereum from last cycle.
If Solana reached a $571 billion market cap, that would put $SOL at $1,351 at the top of this cycle.
Total Market Cap + BTC & ETH Dominance 💪
I’ve got one final trick up my sleeve that combines much of what we talked about above into one.
Now we are going to use our regression channel to understand the potential total market cap of crypto at the top of this cycle.
Then, we will analyze the historical market share percentages of BTC and ETH relative to the overall market cap and determine the potential prices based on these insights.
Yes, there are multiple assumptions here, but again, we’re just building out a thesis from various data points.
According to our regression channel, by October 2025, the total crypto market cap should hit $16.2 trillion if it reaches the trendline.
If it's one standard deviation below, we’ll hit $7.24 trillion and 1 above we hit $36 trillion.
Analyzing historical data, Bitcoin has comprised 35% and 38% of the total crypto market cap at previous peaks.
Projecting this trend to the next anticipated peak suggests Bitcoin could make up approximately 42.68% of the market cap.
If we now take 42.68% of the projected total market cap of crypto we get the following, depending on where we reach on the regression channel:
1 standard deviation overbought = $15.3 trillion market cap or $728k per $BTC
Trendline = $6.9 trillion market cap or $328k per $BTC
1 standard deviation oversold = $3.09 trillion market cap or $147k per $BTC
Let’s do the same for Ethereum, which historically has been 24.5% and 22% of the total crypto market cap at the tops.
Following that trendline into the next projected top, we get 19.58%.
If we now take 19.58% of the projected total market cap of crypto we get the following, depending on where we reach on the regression channel:
1 standard deviation overbought = $7.04 market cap or $58k per $ETH
Trendline = $3.17 trillion market cap or $26.4k per $ETH
1 standard deviation oversold = $1.417 trillion market cap or $11.8k per $ETH
Ok, that was a lot of numbers.
Let’s put it all together…
Price Predictions for $BTC, $ETH and $SOL 🔮
Well, that was fun!
That was a lot of predictions, with very big ranges. So, how can we take anything from that?
First, let’s understand that none of this is an actual prediction of an exact price of any of these assets.
It’s simply about creating a framework to understand a potential range and then dial it in further as new information arises.
That said, if we believe we will have another crypto cycle, then based on the numbers above, here is what we can assume at a low, mid and high projection for $BTC, $ETH and $SOL.
$BTC
Low = $147k - $188k
Mid = $328k - $469k - $595k
High = $728k - $1.2m
$ETH
Low = $8.5k - $11.8k - $16.5k
Mid = $19.2 - $26.4k - $26.8k
High = $58k - $88k
$SOL
Low = $714
Mid = $900 - $1351
High = Since $SOL is too new, there was no relevant data which could predict its price. So for now, it's unknown.
You might be thinking that these numbers are ridiculous. They might be.
But let’s remember that < 1% of the world's money is in crypto and < 1% of the world is onchain using crypto.
If crypto continues to gain adoption, the potential is absolutely massive. Remember, these are only projections for less than 2 years from now!
Imagine if we did these for 5 - 10 years from now. 🤯
Finally, I just want to reiterate that this doesn't mean we choose these numbers and the date of October 1, 2025 as the top and then blindly try to invest and trade for exactly that.
That would be very stupid.
Instead, we use this as a starting point and continue to update our thesis and projections as we learn new data, things like:
Technology improvements from each blockchain
Adoption and use cases
Global liquidity
Regulation
Stability of other currencies
Other impactful innovations
Of course, that’s the purpose of Web3 Academy PRO. We’ll keep you on the forefront of this technology and give you as much information as we can to help you build and invest successfully across web3.
On that note, I wanted to welcome all of our newest PRO members who joined us during the past week. It’s good to see so many new faces onboard.
I’m confident that we’ll do really well over the coming few years and I’m forever grateful to head into this journey with all of you.
Thanks for reading. And remember, you're strong, you’re powerful, you’re alpha! ❤️
How'd you feel about our read today?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kyle Reidhead
Founder of Web3 Academy and Impact3
Find him on Twitter
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions or taking any action based on the content.
