I agree with much of the analysis below but a few more thoughts on why prediction markets are accelerating.
We've had ~20 years of unhinged post modernism on the internet where anyone can make their own truth and talk a huge amount of game on social media to get people to believe it. The outcome of this has been a collapse in trust of nearly every institution on the planet but particularly in media and journalism. Prediction markets are a yang to that yin. They are brutal in their truth seeking and they're an open invite to those curious about a market to contribute information with skin in the game. (The french guy who commissioned his own polls for his bet on the last US election is a good example).
It might look ugly and invite negative or addictive behavior (as
@cassie points out) but now that they're here, it's hard to imagine them ever going away. They are truth seeking machines and like any machine there are ways to make them better. We can fight for norms (do not make assassination prediction markets mainstream) and expand their depth.
feels early.
https://farcaster.xyz/deployer/0xbd22d438
