The analysis is very thorough, but I'm still not optimistic about Farcaster's future performance.
In terms of origin and financing, Farcaster is top-tier, and the appeal of a decentralized Twitter is also first-rate. I think the problems it faces are the same as those of Base.
It's too unrealistic. It doesn't fit well with transactions and isn't a traffic entry point either.
Farcaster's story is well-told, and its ecosystem looks promising, but it's hollow on the inside. At this stage, it can rely on the anticipation of airdrops to keep people interested, but in the long run, after the TGE, it's likely that only hackers will use it, just like the Zora project developed by Base.
And Farcaster faces the following competitors:
1. Web3 wallets supported by direct traffic entry points like Binance and OKX
2. Trading terminals like Gmgn and FoMo that offer smooth user experience and have accumulated a large amount of trading and customized data
3. Telegram, which has over 100 million daily active users and built-in wallets