The On-Chain Rich List: Satoshi’s $115 B and the Private-Key Ghosts
#1 Satoshi Nakamoto – US $115 billion Spread across 22 000 addresses mined in 2009-2010, the creator’s untouched stack is still the largest individual fortune on any blockchain. Whether the name tags one person or a group, the coins have never moved—an $115 B sleeping volcano that could shake markets if it ever stirs.#2 Justin Sun – US $1.9 billion on-chain (est. US $5–6 B total) The TRON founder and BitTorrent CEO keeps a colourful basket of tokens visible on-chain. His recent tussle with Tr...
The On-Chain Rich List: Satoshi’s $115 B and the Private-Key Ghosts
#1 Satoshi Nakamoto – US $115 billion Spread across 22 000 addresses mined in 2009-2010, the creator’s untouched stack is still the largest individual fortune on any blockchain. Whether the name tags one person or a group, the coins have never moved—an $115 B sleeping volcano that could shake markets if it ever stirs.#2 Justin Sun – US $1.9 billion on-chain (est. US $5–6 B total) The TRON founder and BitTorrent CEO keeps a colourful basket of tokens visible on-chain. His recent tussle with Tr...
The Whale Who Was Up $100 M: Why I’m Leaving HyperLiquid
Protocol Survived, Users Didn’t I just made a personal—and painful—decision: I will no longer trade on HyperLiquid. I’m not calling for a boycott; I’m simply following the drift of my own values. After clearing $95 M on HL—and crossing nine figures across venues—my P&L is still positive this year. But on 10 October I lost $62 M in a single liquidation cascade. That day showed me the industry has out-grown its “hope and prayer” risk architecture.What Actually Happened on 10·10Binance’s interna...
The Whale Who Was Up $100 M: Why I’m Leaving HyperLiquid
Protocol Survived, Users Didn’t I just made a personal—and painful—decision: I will no longer trade on HyperLiquid. I’m not calling for a boycott; I’m simply following the drift of my own values. After clearing $95 M on HL—and crossing nine figures across venues—my P&L is still positive this year. But on 10 October I lost $62 M in a single liquidation cascade. That day showed me the industry has out-grown its “hope and prayer” risk architecture.What Actually Happened on 10·10Binance’s interna...
Why the "Four-Year Cycle Theory" Might Be Wrong: Using Bayes' Formula to Gauge Market Risk by End-2025
Summary The author questions the validity of the cryptocurrency market's "Four-Year Cycle Theory," arguing it is statistically unreliable due to an excessively small sample size (only 3 complete cycles to date). A Bayesian probability model is proposed, analyzing Q4 2025 in direct comparison to Q4 2019 to assess market risk. Using Bayes' formula, the calculated probability of a bear market occurring from late 2025 to early 2026 is approximately 15-20%, significantly lower than the expectation...
Why the "Four-Year Cycle Theory" Might Be Wrong: Using Bayes' Formula to Gauge Market Risk by End-2025
Summary The author questions the validity of the cryptocurrency market's "Four-Year Cycle Theory," arguing it is statistically unreliable due to an excessively small sample size (only 3 complete cycles to date). A Bayesian probability model is proposed, analyzing Q4 2025 in direct comparison to Q4 2019 to assess market risk. Using Bayes' formula, the calculated probability of a bear market occurring from late 2025 to early 2026 is approximately 15-20%, significantly lower than the expectation...
CZ’s Trump Pardon: Four Concentric Ripples Across Crypto & TradFi
Think of the pardon as a stone dropped in an already-choppy market pond. The waves travel outward in four distinct rings; each ring represents a different liquidity pool, risk profile and time-horizon. Below we map the first 48-hour price action and what it implies for the next 4–12 weeks.Ripple 1 – Binance-Core Assets (seconds → minutes)BNB spot: $1,076 → $1,161 (+7.9 % in 15 min), spot premium on Coinbase jumps to +3.4 %.ASTER (Binance-backed perp DEX): +48 % intraday, liquidating $12 m sho...
CZ’s Trump Pardon: Four Concentric Ripples Across Crypto & TradFi
Think of the pardon as a stone dropped in an already-choppy market pond. The waves travel outward in four distinct rings; each ring represents a different liquidity pool, risk profile and time-horizon. Below we map the first 48-hour price action and what it implies for the next 4–12 weeks.Ripple 1 – Binance-Core Assets (seconds → minutes)BNB spot: $1,076 → $1,161 (+7.9 % in 15 min), spot premium on Coinbase jumps to +3.4 %.ASTER (Binance-backed perp DEX): +48 % intraday, liquidating $12 m sho...
a16z: Prediction Markets Are Becoming the New Traffic Magnet
Prediction markets tell stories through probability trend charts—a format once confined to niches like politics and sports due to the lack of widely accepted prediction odds. Prediction markets solve the problem of narrative scalability by allowing any event to generate a probability path through contract definitions. However, early stages suffered from limited liquidity due to insufficient participation. In recent years, prediction markets have entered mainstream culture through viral social...
a16z: Prediction Markets Are Becoming the New Traffic Magnet
Prediction markets tell stories through probability trend charts—a format once confined to niches like politics and sports due to the lack of widely accepted prediction odds. Prediction markets solve the problem of narrative scalability by allowing any event to generate a probability path through contract definitions. However, early stages suffered from limited liquidity due to insufficient participation. In recent years, prediction markets have entered mainstream culture through viral social...
