World events prediction market odds can be moved by a single actor with enough capital. These markets are thinly traded, so a big bet moves the odds and misprices the market away from true consensus. With little liquidity, there is no natural correction mechanism. The problem is that prediction markets are being positioned as "info markets." News publications cite those odds and use them to inform narratives. The narrative spreads. The sourcing never gets questioned. This creates misinformation and a clear path for bad actors to seed disinformation campaigns. The gap between market odds and accurate probability is where the real signal lives. That spread means something different depending on who you are and how you use the underlying information. For enterprises relying on market data to inform strategic decisions, it is hidden risk. For traders with conviction about where the odds are actually heading, it is opportunity. @quotient is the verification layer to help you see opportunities and understand risks. Watch on @gmfarcaster: https://youtube.com/shorts/R7OarQPHdGw https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2027369543253856683?s=20