This is a manifesto I’m writing for myself to reflect back on in Q4 2025, when I’ve made revanchist dynastic epochal generational wealth.
Performance to date
I’ve been tracking the performance of my bags since Nov 2020. It’s now been 3 years:
Unit price = 252 = return adjusted for capital inflow (eg savings being deployed) and outflow (eg buying a car), a purer measure of return.
Net worth = 314 = how much money I actually got.
Three take aways:
I have never lost more than I put in
I have 2.5-3.0x’d my bags during this period
I’ve spent the last 2 years crawling back to my previous higher watermark reached in Nov 2021, and still not there yet on unit price basis.
Goal
My goal is to 5x my bags from today to the end of this cycle. And keep it.
My time horizon is 24 months, based on picotop in Q4 2025.
Portfolio allocation
My target allocation for this cycle is:
Cash: Money set aside to buy 12 months of runway to focus on crypto full-time. To re-assess after 6 months.
BTC: There is a chance that BTC outperforms ETH this cycle, but I’m not willing to bet on it. I also have meaningful exposure to BTC via my retirement account (401(k) in the US) and that’s enough.
ETH: ETHBTC at bottoming support level of 0.055. Expect ETHBTC to outperform in bull phase of the cycle. Expect spot ETF approved in the US by mid-2024. Crypto native yield attractive to tardfi. Less capital needed vs BTC for price to rally.
SOL: relative value catchup play to ETH. Hedge to modular roll-up smart contract approach not getting meaningful traction by late 2025. Most people don’t care about decentralisation. Anatoly is loved. A diehard community forged by the pain inflicted from FTX and a 97% drawdown to $8 SOL. Proto-danksharding won’t be ready in 2025, ETH L2 continue to offer subpar user experience vs Solana.
COIN: best public market bet for crypto exposure. Brian is bald.
LDO: ETH beta, to outperform ETH late cycle and/or when the LSD narrrative gets picked up by tardfi.
Active: Money I will be managing actively to ride narratives and make outsized returns relating to core HODL positions.
Price targets
My price targets for base / bull / bear case scenarios for the peak of this cycle are:
Probability: I assign probability of 60%/20%/20% to Base/Bull/Bear cases respectively.
Base: price targets that I think are most likely for the upcoming cycle.
Bull: upper range of my price target expectations, but not unreasonable.
Bear: Based on previous all-time high (ATH) prices.
In setting these target prices, historical ETHBTC, SOLETH, LDOETH ratios were also checked and they seem to fall within historical breakout ranges.
Target outcome
This is what the end result will look like, based on illustrative $1m starting capital:
Put in $1m, get out $6.0m.
Applying a 15% discount for not being able to time the top perfectly, end outcome is $5.1m, or 5.1x return.
Here are the 3 individual scenarios that make up the weighted outcome:
Base case (60% probability)
Bull case (20% probability)
Bear case (20% probability)
That’s the plan.
Time to fucking execute,
0xChancellor