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The Macro Picture: The Price Is WRONG!

As always — know what's in your basket before you show up expecting a check.

PRIVATE CREDIT : K-1 investing is nice, K-1 with zero returns not so much! Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in loans at 99.7 cents on the dollar to return money to investors in older, wind-down funds. They ended quarterly redemptions for one fund — this spooked retail investors even though the firm says it's a planned structural move, not a crisis. 13% of loans in the sold portfolio were in software — a sector rattled by AI disruption fears.

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  • Jamie Dimon flagged "dumb stuff" risks building in private credit — echoing pre-2008 dynamics

  • The private credit market is $3 trillion and growing, heavily exposed to software/LBO deals and AI data center buildout. ~$47 billion in tech loans are now at distressed trading levels; $18B went distressed in the past month alone

  • The danger: private credit is self-valued and illiquid — problems hide until they don't

  • Public credit spreads (investment-grade: ~70bps, high-yield: ~90bps) are NOT flashing red — a troubling mismatch

  • The Fed flagged it in January minutes: "vulnerabilities associated with the private credit sector"

March Dividend Payers updated on 2/25/26 www.DIVIDOND.com

The big picture this month: institutional money is light on mega-cap tech (opportunity?), moving toward high yield, watching natural gas infrastructure for the AI trade, and quietly building positions in Swiss francs over gold. Meanwhile, lithium's January rally looks shaky, and European office stocks may have more room to fall. As always — know what's in your basket before you show up expecting a check.

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