Author: 3HOUSE user @Jdarrwr

Last week we’ve seen a typical moment in the crypto space called “Buy the Rumour, Sell the News”. CT was filled with big names calling out for the bull run and parabolic moves which pulled money into markets, which some may call “exit liquidity for institutions”, but we’ll get over that. Bitcoin kept pushing higher and higher until we hit major resistance levels around 31k and late longs began to live their nightmares. Price of BTC dropped more than 10% in only three days. Over leveraged traders got liquidated for sums greater than two hundred million dollars in only one hour. It was pretty strange to see the number of net longs growing when we hit 31k resistance expecting a breakout and getting burnt. Something we’d consider so simple, may it seems not to be the same for others. Previous financial reports began to show uncertainty in some markets as recent PMI reports, which are documents that provide information about progress and projections, showed mix opinions with some being more optimistic than others.

Enough talk about macroeconomics, let’s begin our research in Fetch AI. In 2017, Fetch.AI was established as an AI laboratory that specializes in creating an open, decentralized machine learning network with a cryptocurrency-based economy. The company launched through an IEO on Binance in March 2019. One of the key objectives of Fetch.AI is to make AI technology more accessible to the public by creating a permissionless network that allows anyone to connect and access secure datasets. The network uses autonomous AI to execute tasks that utilize its global data network. Fetch.AI focuses on various use cases such as optimizing DeFi trading services, transportation networks (including parking and micromobility), smart energy grids, and travel, among other complex digital systems that rely on large-scale datasets. It was founded by Toby Simpson, Humayun Sheikh and Thomas Hain.

The Fetch.AI network is entirely decentralized, thanks to the use of blockchain technology. This ensures that the network operates without the control of a single entity. To enhance the security of user data, differential privacy is employed to prevent the exposure of private datasets during updates. Additionally, the blockchain system of Fetch.AI employs a combination of multi-party cryptography and game theory, which provides secure and censorship-resistant consensus.

Fetch.ai's core components include the learner, where each participant represents a unique private dataset and machine learning system and serves as the learner in the experiment. The global market is the result of a collective learning experiment, where the machine learning model is trained collectively by the learners themselves. The Fetch.ai blockchain supports smart contracts, which enable secure and auditable coordination and governance. Lastly, the platform employs a decentralized data layer based on IPFS, which enables the sharing of machine learning weights among all learners involved.

During a seed funding round in June 2018, the Fetch.ai team secured $15 million in investment from major players such as Outlier Ventures and Blockwall Management.

TOTAL2 represents the cryptocurrency total market cap, but excluding Bitcoin. It shows the total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, as we normally refer to ALTs dominance.

We’ve been moving up and down in a structure range for the previous 10 months. As history tells us, last deviation that took place around the range high, resulted in a breakdown and big drops in alt coins. This does not happen in one day, not even in a week, it’s a longer process and should keep a close eye on. As in our case, it should not interfere too much with the trading plain.

Bitcoin on the other hand, showed a clear failed breakout at the yearly open, due to insufficient liquidity. Retail traders got caught once again longing at resistance which can be seen from the graph, a visual representation of human sentimental judgement and critical thinking.

New traders, pulled from Crypto Twitter, discovered leverage and 100x long on BTC but market shown clear exhaustion in the buying side, displayed in changes based on the cumulative volume delta in the previous month.

We need to look for the structure to turn bullish at 27.2k level in terms of a swing failure pattern or last level of liquidity currently sitting at 26.5k.

As we shift our attention to Fetch.AI, now that we established bias for Bitcoin, price reached last swing low on 4H timeframe and it’s accumulating for possible longs.

Price created equal lows which are the effect of buying power on exactly the same level, leaving liquidity under it in terms of stop losses. This lines up with a strong order block that caused a massive price bounce as it sparked interest in buyers and traders. This was the spot where multiple orders have been placed and we can assume price will react in a similar way in the future.

As Bitcoin waits for a decision to be made for the next move, we can start opening our trade with a market entry but low size around 0.332$ mark and leaving rest to DCA in case BTC loses current point of control and falls towards 26.5k level, where last hope for longs rests.

Dollar cost averaging until 0.305$ value with rest of the size we left room for, can lower our entry point giving us a better Risk:Rewards position.

• 0.35$ - this is the 1st level of interest where we would see a change of structure to the upside and putting our stop loss at break even turning this into a free trade

• 0.367$ - monthly open price is where we are taking 25% off from our position

• 0.39$ - taking 50% off and examining for a breakthrough the main point of control of the current range, if we reject this level position can be closed in profits

• 0.435$ - closing 100% of the trade as this level should be filled with exhausted buyers waited to be eaten up by the market

STOP LOSS should take place if 4H candle closes under 0.295$ or Bitcoin loses it’s last level of support.

This was an analysis made for Fetch.AI to give you a more clear view of the current situation. Don’t over leverage positions, trading should be based only on personal judgement and to your own management rules. Persistency is key.

‘Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.’ Warren Buffett

This is not financial advice, trade at your own risk!