HODL Waves

HODL Waves present a macro view of the age distribution of the coin supply and provides insight into changes to this age distribution arising from holding and spending behaviour. The metric bundles the coin supply into categories depending on age, and presents it in colour bands with a thickness proportional to the total coin supply.

The chart below presents a view where all coins older than 6 months are turned off making the proportion of young, recently moved coins stand out clearly.

We can see that particularly around bull market peaks, there is a marked increase in young coin supply as older coins are spent and profits realised into market strength. This provides insight into the times when smart money investors with long time horizons are spending and re-activating dormant coins. This may increase the liquid circulating supply if those coins are sold.

It is important to note that the spending of old coins will have immediate effect on the thickness of the youngest coin HODL wave colour band.

The chart below presents a view where only coins aged between 1-year and 5-years are turned on to demonstrate the oscillation of coin dormancy between cycles. Here we ignore ancient and lost coins (>5yrs) given their low probability of being spent back into circulation. We also ignore young coins to make changes in older coin supply clearer.

Old coin supply bands tends to peak in the during and following bear markets and into early bull markets due to the maturation time lag.

• Yellow 1yr to 2yr brackets will start to increase first as coins accumulated during the early bear market begin to mature.

• Green 2yr+ bands then swell a year later until these HODL waves start to decline as old coins are spent into bull market strength. This represents the realisation of profits by long term holders and smart money investors.

Unlike young coins, the maturation of coins into older colour bands will always be offset by the lower bound age of the bracket. For example, swelling of the 2 to 3-yr age band due to a large coin withdrawal will only commence 2-years after the coins were moved. As such interpretation must account for this time offset in each age bracket under consideration.

HODL Waves

HODL Waves present a macro view of the age distribution of the coin supply and provides insight into changes to this age distribution arising from holding and spending behaviour. The metric bundles the coin supply into categories depending on age, and presents it in colour bands with a thickness proportional to the total coin supply.

The chart below presents a view where all coins older than 6 months are turned off making the proportion of young, recently moved coins stand out clearly.

We can see that particularly around bull market peaks, there is a marked increase in young coin supply as older coins are spent and profits realised into market strength. This provides insight into the times when smart money investors with long time horizons are spending and re-activating dormant coins. This may increase the liquid circulating supply if those coins are sold.

It is important to note that the spending of old coins will have immediate effect on the thickness of the youngest coin HODL wave colour band.

The chart below presents a view where only coins aged between 1-year and 5-years are turned on to demonstrate the oscillation of coin dormancy between cycles. Here we ignore ancient and lost coins (>5yrs) given their low probability of being spent back into circulation. We also ignore young coins to make changes in older coin supply clearer.

Old coin supply bands tends to peak in the during and following bear markets and into early bull markets due to the maturation time lag.

• Yellow 1yr to 2yr brackets will start to increase first as coins accumulated during the early bear market begin to mature.

• Green 2yr+ bands then swell a year later until these HODL waves start to decline as old coins are spent into bull market strength. This represents the realisation of profits by long term holders and smart money investors.

Unlike young coins, the maturation of coins into older colour bands will always be offset by the lower bound age of the bracket. For example, swelling of the 2 to 3-yr age band due to a large coin withdrawal will only commence 2-years after the coins were moved. As such interpretation must account for this time offset in each age bracket under consideration.