The probability of the existence of outer-Earth civilization in the universe is far greater than that of the planet’s only civilization. So, why do we find no definitive evidence of the existence of any outside civilization? It was explained by scientists that all civilizations that emerged in the universe could inevitably collapse before developing inter-constellation technologies …

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Our planet is no more than one of the corners of the universe, so that the universe is too old and that there is a civilizational probability elsewhere in the universe, far more than the probability that Earth civilization is the only civilization in the universe. That is the case, where are those civilizations? Why have we not seen the exact evidence of their existence so far?

It is not merely a matter of concern for writers, but also a serious scientific issue. The issue was first raised in 1950 by the physico Fermie (Enrico Fermi), the physicsist, who also tried to show, in rough calculations, that the outer stars had already visited the Earth. Famili advocated that there were hundreds of millions of solar-like occupants in the Galaxy system, and that they were likely to have a suitable type of planet around them. In such a huge sum, even if the probability of the emergence of civilization is small, the number of civilizations may still be significant. These civilizations may have developed for billions of years and, once the resources of their perseverance systems have been exhausted, they will necessarily be subject to interplanetary migration. Why do we not see any evidence to date? This issue was later referred to as “Fami paradox”.

After the Famili paradox was put forward, scientists would like to quantify the possibility of an outer-star civilization. In 1961, the astronomyer Frank de Reque (Frank Drake) introduced a formula to estimate the number of civilizations in the Galaxy system that can communicate with us. This formula relates to the rate of the periphery of the Galaxy system, the proportion of the planets owned by the stars, the proportion of life of the planet and the proportion of development of civilization. Some of the values can be obtained through astronomical observations, while others can only be estimated. Ultimately, according to this formula, Derek concluded that the number of civilizations in the Galaxy system that can communicate with us ranged between 100 and 100 million. But we have not received a signal from any civilization, and how should this be interpreted?

Large filterers

The overall interpretation of the Family paradox can be divided into two main categories: either other civilizations exist, but they are not willing to share with us for some reason or there is no civilization other than Earth’s civilization in the universe.

The first interpretation is a source of inspiration for many skirmishes, for example, in the context of the Third Stereo, when the exchange among civilizations in the universe leads to annihilation, so civilization always prefers to hide itself rather than to broadcast its own signals. Of course, it is also possible that the level of development of different civilizations is too different to exchange. Perhaps, in the view of the higher civilizations, the signal of the Earth’s civilization, like what we are witnessing, does not attract the interest of their hearts.

The latter interpretation seemed to be more follow-up. If the Earth’s civilization is the only civilization that exists at this stage of the universe, then we are the first to look for the intellectual life of starvation, naturally not to receive signals from other civilizations. The question that this interpretation needs to be answered is how many of the planets that are suitable for the birth of civilization in the universe and why are humanity the first generation of civilization? Scientists have put forward “large filters” (The Great Filter) falsely that the difficulty of advocating some of the key elements in the process of developing intellectual civilization has been seriously underestimated. These links have served as a filter, and even if the universe has been born in the past with many lives or primary civilization, they have not been able to continue to develop.

Large filters are quoted by Robin Hanson, who considers life from birth to assimilation, through nine links, including single cell life, multi cell life, large brain capacity development, tools, etc. Human civilization is now in the eighth chain, while the ninth is an inter-constellation. In the view of Hansen, at least one of these nine links is very difficult to cross, thus filtering many potential civilizations. If this link is situated in the first eight, then humanity can be relaxed, perhaps we have gone through the most difficult phase, with the possibility of moving to space in the future. But if this is the ninth, the future of humanity may not be as good: perhaps until the day when human civilization annihilates, we also develop technologies that do not lead to interstellar navigation.

Will civilization end?

A recent study published in the Royal Society Interface Journal supports the idea that filters are in the ninth chain. In the view of the two authors of the paper, the civilization that emerged from the universe was likely to shrink as a result of the explosion of the population before developing the interplanetary navigation technology.

The authors cited a study by Luís Bettencourt and others on urban growth patterns, which was used to project the evolutionary history of civilization in the universe. Research by Bethungu et al. indicates that urban energy consumption, wealth creation can be seen as a function of the size of the population, and that this is a sign of the relationship between the metabolism rates of living organisms and volume. However, in contrast, the latter function is smaller than one, that is, the larger biomass, the lower the rate of metabolism; the higher the previous one is a cassava function, the greater the urban population, the higher the “decent” rate in cities.

Based on this pattern, Becheon and others have proposed ways to describe the evolution of the urban population.

SWN indicates population size, Y0 indicates total urban population resource requirements, R for per capita resource requirements, E for a new individual resource requirement, and β as an index of urban “advantage rate” with demographic changes.

The programme involves parameters such as urban total resource requirements and per capita resource requirements. They found that, as long as the urban metabolic rate was more than 1 per cent of the population, the size of the population would always be tended to wipe without poverty for a period of steady growth. In order to avoid large urban populations