Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 157

Back when Canadians used to travel to the US , it was common for a situation like this to arise: "Hey, I'll send you money. Do you have Venmo?" And then, as a Canadian, you'd say, "sorry, we don't have Venmo in Canada. We use our own proprietary system called Interac e-Transfer. Do you have PayPal? I think I still have an account. Let's try." Once this exchange was over, both parties would then sit there and wonder why the hell it's still so expensive and awkward to move money around.

As another example, take global remittances. These are payments sent by a person back to their country of origin, usually to a family member. And in 2024, it was estimated that some $905 billion was sent around the world for this reason , with about $685 billion of it being sent to low and middle-income countries. But it was also estimated that the average cost of doing this was around 6.62% , which is double the UN's target of 3%.

For anyone who has used crypto before, this feels painfully archaic. Sending a wire transfer can cost over $50 and it can take time to clear, assuming that you got in before the bank's cut-off time. Sending things via a blockchain is cheap (it's pennies now) and it happens instantly and securely — 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. This was always one of the promises of crypto, but now we're seeing it play out very clearly with stablecoins. Here's an example.

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Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency that have their value pegged to another asset, such as gold or a fiat currency. And at the time of writing this post, something like 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar. The benefits of this are twofold. Firstly, it creates price stability. You're effectively holding US dollars. But now you have a US dollar on a blockchain (or a tokenized US dollar), meaning you can do crypto things with it, like send it around the world instantly and for free.

The other benefit of this is that it can serve as a hedge against a problematic local currency. Would you rather hold the Argentine Peso or the US dollar? The use cases are powerful. So it's not surprising that, by some estimates , a quarter of all global remittances now involve some form of cryptocurrency. Argentina also happens to be the leading crypto market in Latin America. Between July 2023 and June 2024, the country recorded about $91 billion in crypto transactions .

It's fascinating to think about how all of this will reshape the global financial landscape . Already stablecoin transactions are threatening Visa in terms of overall transactions . All someone needs is a mobile phone and a crypto wallet. And by the way, as soon as you link a wallet to a human, you can also quickly determine how much money they've been sending/receiving, figure out tax liabilities, and so on.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the (vast?) majority of stablecoin transactions settle on Ethereum. It is the substrate powering this market, as well as many others. I don't know what that exactly means for Ethereum as a crypto asset. But I do believe it means something meaningful. And in this instance, it stems from a fairly simple want: "I would like to send you money cheaply and securely, and I don't want inflation to then kill my purchasing power."

Cover photo by Alistair MacRobert on Unsplash

Urbanation just released its Q1-2025 condominium market survey results for the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA). Here's how things are looking:

The entire GTHA recorded 533 new condominium sales and the City of Toronto recorded 215 new condominium sales in the quarter. Once again, and as you can see above, this is the lowest level since the early 90s.

For all intents and purposes, I think you can look at these sales figures as mostly representing a zero. The numbers are relatively small and a sale doesn't necessarily equate 1:1 to an eventual new home. The sale needs to be within a project that achieves its requisite pre-sales for construction financing.

Since the beginning of 2024, Urbanation has tracked a total of 5,734 pre-construction condominiums that have been put on hold, cancelled, placed into receivership, or converted to purpose-built rental.

So where does this leave us? It leaves us with:

• 69,042 condominium homes under construction across the GTHA

• 10,934 unsold condominiums in pre-construction projects

• 11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction

• 1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects (standing inventory)

One hypothetical could be that many/most of the projects currently in pre-construction never actually make it to construction, which would mean that the above 10,934 condominiums just disappear from the market. For argument's sake, let's assume this happens. That would leave projects under construction and standing inventory.

Of the condominium's currently under construction, 11,073 are unsold, which represents about 16% of the total. For the units that have sold, some will belong to end users, some will belong to investors who have an ability to close, and the rest will be buyers who, frankly, don't want to close or who can't close.

I don't know what this latter percentage might be, but let's say that 40% of the condominiums sold and under construction become a problem and need to be "reabsorbed" in the market. That is, they need to find new buyers. That would equal 23,187 condominiums (and hopefully I'm being very conservative). In this scenario we would have:

• 11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction

• 23,187 condominiums that become a problem and need to reabsorbed in the market

• 1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects

• Total of 36,171 "unsold" condominiums

So, how long will it take to absorb these new homes? I don't know. It depends on a bunch of factors, including immigration. But I think we need at least 2 more years just to physically deliver the homes that are currently under construction. Then there may be a period of reabsorption. That continues to suggest to me that 2028 could be the year where we're on the other side of this.

Cover photo by Brian Jones on Unsplash

Every five years, the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area (of southern Ontario) conducts something called a Transportation Tomorrow Survey . And I am told that it is the most comprehensive travel survey conducted anywhere in the world. So let's look at some of the data. The last survey was completed in 2022 and a mapping of the data was prepared by the School of Cities at the University of Toronto.

Population density:

Percentage of trips by walking:

Percentage of trips by bicycle:

Percentage of trips by public transit:

Percentage of trips by car:

Percentage of residents with a driver's license:

Percentage of households without a car:

Average trips by distance:

Once again, these maps remind us that the starkest contrast is between active and non-active forms of mobility. In other words, we have a central core where many, and sometimes most people (>50%) walk to where they need to go, and then there's absolutely everywhere else in the region where most people drive (>50%) and, in some cases, where people drive almost exclusively (>90%). Public transit ridership is more dispersed, but it's really only dominant in Toronto, and not in any of the suburbs.

Perhaps the only reasonably uniform finding is that average trip distances tend to be relatively short (<10 km) no matter where you live.

Maps from the School of Cities at the University of Toronto; cover photo by Juan Rojas on Unsplash