Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 299

I kept spotting this backpack in Les 3 Vallées and I thought it was awesome because, well, in the words of the late Anthony Bourdain , "you can never have too much cheese, bacon, or starch." Tartiflette is a casserole dish that is local to the Haute-Savoie region in the French Alps. Its main ingredients are potatoes, bacon, and cheese (reblochon to be exact). And yes, it is as delicious and filling as it sounds.

I also liked that the slogan was specific to the region we were in, and so I went on a hunt to find this mysterious backpack. I must have gone into at least 8-10 stores looking for it. None of them had it. But eventually I learned that it was an online thing. It was for the "I like to ski and hang out in chat rooms" crowd, or at least that's how one guy explained it to me. So I went online and ordered it back to Toronto.

It finally arrived today, and I'm looking forward to using it when I snowboard, cycle, and attempt to make tartiflette for the first time. Now I just need to locate some reblochon. (Note to US readers: My understanding is that this cheese is considered contraband in your country because it is unpasteurized and does not meet US import laws. So you may need to find some sort of clandestine cheese market if you want to make it.)

For those of you who also like to ski and hang out in chat rooms, you can find the bag and other merch, here . It's all an extension of the Grenoble-based online magazine, skipass.com.

At the highest level, I agree with the premise of this tweet from The Real Estate God. The overarching argument is that one's main criteria for selecting a real estate market in which to enter should be "the place with the least competition." And the reason for this is that less competition equals less price discovery, which then equals more mispriced assets and more opportunities to generate outsized returns.

Going even further, the argument here is that you're actually taking on less risk by buying mispriced assets in less competitive markets because you can model reality (things like in-place cash flows and market rents) as opposed to betting on the future (things like rental growth and/or cap rate compression). Said in a different way, it's easier to find deals and "make money on the buy"; and, once again, I would mostly agree with this.

But in my mind there's a very important caveat. And it's akin to the advice that the late Charlie Munger supposedly gave to Warren Buffet: "Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices." While it is true that you might find wonderful pricing in less competitive markets, there remains the question of whether you're also buying wonderful real estate.

And I think that's an important consideration.

Some four years ago, people were talking about the possibility of New York City being dead . But of course that was nonsense. Last week, New York City published the initial findings of its housing and vacancy survey and the key takeaway is that the city's vacancy rate dropped to 1.41% last year (2023). This is a drop from 4.54% just two years ago and the lowest measurement since 1968. It's also even worse at more affordable rent levels:

The problem, as described by the city, is a supply-demand imbalance. Over the last two years, the city's net housing stock grew by about 60,000 homes (~2%). This is, apparently, pretty good compared to recent years/decades; but it wasn't nearly enough given that the city added 275,000 new households. This is the opposite of dead, and it's not going to be addressed by just doing things like restricting short-term rentals .

We have a structural delivery problem and New York City is not alone in facing it.