Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 302

Sometime before the Paris 2024 Olympics this summer, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) is expected to announce who will host the 2030 and 2034 Winter Games. Right now, the two frontrunners are thought to be the French Alps and Salt Lake City/Park City -- I think respectively.

Obviously these are two fantastic winter locations. But one of the things that the local committees need to do before they can secure the games is show the IOC that they have enough hotel rooms on hand. More specifically, they need 24,000 rooms reserved for 33 nights. This covers 17 nights during the games, 14 nights before, and 2 nights after.

Most of these rooms, about 10,000 or so, will go to journalists.

I didn't fully appreciate -- or I just didn't think about it -- that this was something that needed to be done 6-10 years out. Because right now there is a human running around try to lock up these rooms in advance of the decision this summer.

According to the Salt Lake Tribune , they're already at 85% of the requisite 24,000 rooms. Though some of these rooms have yet to be built and some of them reach into neighboring Wyoming, which apparently isn't an atypical distance when it comes to meeting this accommodation requirement.

For obvious reasons , I'm rooting for Utah here. I really want them to get the Winter Games.

Last year in the Greater Toronto Area, condominium construction starts fell to a 9-year low of 15,891 homes. And this year, condominium construction starts are forecasted to fall to a 15-year low of 11,500 homes (though new sales are expected to rebound). Both of these figures are from Urbanation's Q4-2023 market data .

One possible explanation for this drop in construction starts could be that developers are somehow colluding to keep supply low and prices high. Another one could be that more developers are right now independently speculating that prices will be higher in the future, and so they think it's better to just wait. But both of these explanations would be wrong.

The correct answer is that more developers are unable to start construction because the market isn't there. In the case of Toronto's condominium market, this means that the pre-sales aren't there. This might seem obvious, but there seems to always be a contingent of people who believe that developers can choose to build whenever they want.

It is for this same reason that some people think that zoning approvals should have an expiry date. Call it a use-it-or-lose-it approach. But as I think we can see in the above numbers, developers don't control the market. And so I would never want to be in a position where I need to start construction by a certain date, or else.

That's not entirely within my control. In fact, sometimes it's completely out of my control.

Remember Wuhan? Well, it turns out that it is emerging as an important hub for driverless vehicles. Right now it is home to the largest fleet in the world:

In Wuhan, 500 robotaxis, mostly run by Baidu, China’s rival to Google, recorded more than 730,000 ride-hailing trips last year. That compares with combined orders of more than 700,000 last year in Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles, according to Waymo, the self-driving car developer of Google’s parent company Alphabet. Waymo told the Financial Times that it had “a couple of hundred cars” in each of the three fully autonomous zones.

One of the things that is allegedly helping Chinese companies is that they have access to more data. The networks of cameras and other infrastructure that make Chinese cities the most surveilled in the world are, coincidentally, also good for training machine learning models.

This has some industry experts speculating that China could reach an autonomous vehicle "tipping point" sometime around 2027. Meaning, the technologies will be significantly safer than human drivers (at least 10x) and ready for mass adoption.

I don't know if this is the right timeline. There have been many forecasts made over the years. But I do know that competition is good for progress and that having a rival can be an important motivator. And right now, this is yet another example of the US vs. China.