Brandon Donnelly — Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly. — Page 660

Here are some interesting figures about Venice take from this recent FT article by Chris Allnutt :

• Tourist visits to Venice last year were estimated to be about 1/5 of what they usually are

• Short-term rental bookings as of December 2020 were down about 74% year-over-year

• It is estimated that short-term rentals normally represent about 12% of homes in Venice (this is significantly higher than the "typical city" which is estimated to be about 1-2%)

• Even before the pandemic, average property prices had declined from about €4,500 per square meter in 2018 to €4,341 in 2019 (2020 data is still coming)

• Pre-pandemic, the population of the city was about 50,000, which is less than a third of what it was back in the 1950s

• A 2018 study by Airbnb reported that for every local Venetian the city had 74 tourists on average (wow)

• Being a dominant port city, the city has generally been disproportionately impacted by plagues and other health crises throughout its history

• The Lazzaretto Vecchio , which still stands today, is a small island in the Venetian Lagoon that was founded in the 15th century as a hospital to care for plague victims; apparently it was the first of its kind in the world

• During the 15th century, Venice saw its population drop by about two-thirds as a result of an epidemic

• At the height of the Republic of Venice in the 1790s, the city had a population of about 170,000; after falling to Napoleon it halved to about 96,000

• It's worth pointing out that the "height of the republic" occurred after many great epidemics; the subsequent population decline was seemingly the result of a conquest and not pestilence

Photo by @canmandawe on Unsplash

Peggy Noonan argues, in this recent WSJ article , that the world has changed forever. A human habit was broken during this pandemic and city life, including office life, will never be the same in New York City. She qualifies this by saying that some people will return to offices, potentially in significant numbers. (People like being around other people.) But that things will never be what they once were. We've learned that we can decentralize and still get work done.

As many of you know, I am bullish on cities and I am bullish on offices. So I found myself disagreeing with many of her arguments. But Peggy does raise some valid concerns: How are cities going to pay for what just happened over the last 12 months? According to the Partnership for New York City, the city lost about 500,000 private-sector jobs since March 2020. About 300,000 residents from high-income neighborhoods also filed for a "change of the address" during this time period.

Given that the top 5% in New York represent about 62% of the state's income tax base, the movement of people to low-tax states (and warmer places) is something to watch. It's also a trend that existed well before this pandemic.

At the same time, I'm not necessarily convinced that (at least some of) these fleeing rich people aren't coming back. I was speaking with a real estate agent over the weekend who is based in a popular US resort/recreation market and while he told me that, yes, he's seeing a massive influx of people from expensive coastal markets, these people are largely choosing to rent. They want to take the lifestyle for a test drive and they are also waiting to see what happens with the world once city life returns.

There will be real financial challenges coming out of this. But as I've said time and time before, cities are remarkably resilient. And as Jack Shafer argued in this recent article about "memorializing the pandemic," humans tend to have short memories, especially when it comes to bad things. The Spanish Flu has been regarded by many as a forgotten pandemic. We moved on and the same will happen this time around.

This week it was announced that US president Joe Biden has revoked a number of Presidential Actions, one of which is Executive Order 13967 -- Promoting Beautiful Federal Civic Architecture.

Signed on December 18, 2020 by former president Trump, the order, which I wrote about last February , encouraged the use of "classical and traditional architecture" for all federal buildings.

Part of the argument was that too many buildings are being made for only architects to appreciate. This includes, you know, modern architecture and styles like brutalism.

Well that order has been revoked and that means that "beautiful" federal civic architecture is now free to be anything it wants. Look to the past, look to today, and/or look to the future.

This is the way things should be.