We need more imagination. Recently a podcast between Su Zhu and Hasu hit me.

My biggest worry is that in the final game of cryptocurrency, people like you and me may not decide the direction of the game in the end. There are many people from Web2 who have entered the crypto field. They don’t care about decentralization at all. They choose With many centralized chains, some people even told me that they don’t need encryption, they only need tokens.

All web3 products with tokenomics reward early adopters significantly more, i.e. diminishing marginal returns. Every new user cares about and only cares about one thing, “how can I make 1000x gains as my neighbor did before”. So they flow into newer products, simply because the “potential” is higher, until crowded and the returns are low. Then a new loop starts. I expect the loop ends once it reaches an Oligopoly market, when there’re not enough easy-to-get new users, in a certain time window.

OGs might argue in different angles which might or might not make sense. But let’s forget about the rights or wrongs, and talk about business. A successful “Ponzi” attracts new blood. Solana & Avalanche proved this. No offense. 🙂

The crypto industry itself has a strong network effect. The velocity of population flowing in is increasing. But now is not the finale. Only 4% of the world population use crypto. The remaining 96% is what matters. What they really care about? The Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs is a short objection to Crypto Fundamentalism.

“They don’t need encryption, they don’t need decentralization, they only need tokens.”

Again, stay humble, love the people, embrace the randomness, forget analogical reasoning, clear the path-dependent mindset, and build the future.