“There are decades where nothing happens, there are weeks where decades happen.” -Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

The polycrisis as described by Adam Tooze currently impacting global macro markets has been as relevant and confusing as ever. Between the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war, the re-emergent US/China terse relations, energy politics, and money costing money once again - the outlook for the medium term is as murky as ever. While the media and the minds shaped by it dynamically assigns importance to each with a fickle hand, the fact they are individually happening in the background contributes to the increasing entropy of the world and the outcome of realizing the forward curve.

As the great macro minds a la Druckenmiller say, having a variant perception of the future is how you get paid. Should one read into the waves of economic data washing ashore day after day/week after week as true indicators of the forward outlook, or do only a few events matter. With each of the geopolitical stories running in the background, and the market seemingly having the ability to focus on one at a time - one is best suited to spend their attention on what developments are changes that is outsized in importance relative to time.