:an original thread you can find on my twitter by the tag @circ0x
Bull market will be in late 2025
Do you know why a lot of projects all of a suden are issuing tokens that much?
Token unlocks. Whales waiting their cliffs to unlock their tokens approx. in late 2025 - when the bull market starts
We were in the same range for a while, according both to TOTAL3 and $BTC globally almost nothing changed - so what's the deal with this ALTs dump?
The thing is the token unlocks. Speaking about why issue tokens right now - for VCs to have tokens already unlocked on the bullmarket, some say the Q3 of 2025
Generally, token unlocks is a mechanic that bears a massive affect on the price action.
Let's go back to the Saint and Holy lifechanging $ARB airdrop back in Spring 2023...
$1B where distributed amongst 600k elible users. Has everyone been happy? For shure - easy money. What they did? Right - SELL.
Users sold, but pricewas and now is in the same range of $1-$2 - it's clear that it didn't go on "price discovery", no
The Arbitrum team made the price remain still.
- let's just mention here that probably there were not only protocol users' wallets in the token distribution, but the teams', too - ahuh;
so it'd easier to maintain the price range. also, after everyone sold, there were no pressure on the order book, so that's not a big deal for huge company like @arbitrum to hold the price.
While Arbitrum Foundation held the price range, all these years there were token unlocks
Market Cap became more and more equal to the FDV because of these TONs amounts of unlocks - we have 30% unlocked already.
Going straight to the point - there has been a gradual $ARB pump as you can see starting from Winter 2023.
The price went up, from the 1$ to 2$ per $ARB
Now we have actual 0.8$ per 1 $arb now, and it's not over yet...
WHAT HAPPENED and what are these roller coasters even mean?
Watch the hands:
- arbitrum held price around $1 from Spring to Winter
- arbitrum pumped token on agiotage (local bull) to 2$
The price went up -> MCap went up
- (there where not that much tokens in circulation that time so the token hadn't been "heavy" to move)
- now there's enough liquidity (+add here some fomo players who missed true dump...
Time to load out bags -> dump
- due to drastically voluminous unlocks, and on local bear - the price went down...
Let's look at it from another perspective
There are two circles on the curvature. They are both spotting us MCap points where it was valued approx. $2b;
Now here comes the simple math:
imagine we have 1 mill $arb on hands with the prcie of 2$
so, it's the $2m MCap here in total and we have $2m on hands
but, we actually possess not only 1 mil $arb, but 2 mil $arb - the only nuance is that this second million is locked
comes time, and this unlock is more near and near and... BOOM! We have 2 mil $arb on hands and the price is... 1$ (ONE DOLLA) ???
See, globaly - nothing changed. We possessed $2m dollars before unlock. And we possess $2m now, after unlock.
And actually we don't care what price we see, even if it made -50% - because we own the same amount of money as before
While everyone were waiting for alt season, whales (investors) had been selling for $2 on highs, dumping price down to 1$;
And it's 0.8$ actually now....
I'll tell you more guys - these fellas bought tokens not for 2$ or 1$ or 0.8$ per, but for 0.005$!
They have SO SO SO much X's that they don't even care how much it costs now...
And there're still some guys saying "DISCOUNTS DISCOUNTS BUY MORE"
TOKEN UNLOCKS. And it isn't only about $ARB - the most ALTs have the same tokenomic mechanisms
Remember the TradingView chart of $TOTAL3 from earlier? Now we see it's work as it's finest;
TOTAL3 is a chart of total MCap for the most popular alts;
Now it shows us how Market Capitalization remained nearly the same while most ALTs made -50% of their price.
Why? Because of token unlocks.
If we are falling it's not a problem - there are more ALTs to be printed in the very near future.
Straight to the ZERO.
Remember - majority always lose
Peace✌️
tools I used to provide the infographic information:
https://token.unlocks.app/
https://www.tradingview.com/
https://dropstab.com/