#Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warns that quantum computing could present a significant risk to blockchain security, emphasizing that this isn’t merely a futuristic concern. He estimates a 20% chance that quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography will emerge by 2030, supported by forecasts from platforms like Metaculus.

The crux of this danger lies in elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC), the foundation of Ethereum ( $ETH ) and many other blockchains. #Quantum computers could utilize specific algorithms, such as Shor’s algorithm, to theoretically convert public keys back into private keys, paving the way for account takeovers by malicious parties.

Buterin's response is not just to sound the alarm; he outlines actionable solutions. He proposes implementing a hard fork to reverse the blockchain in the event of a quantum-related threat, along with transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptographic methods. Notably, he suggests adopting post-quantum signature schemes, like Winternitz signatures, and employing zero-knowledge proofs (STARKs) for new transaction types.

Ethereum’s future plans include a phase termed “The Splurge,” focused explicitly on enhancing cryptographic measures against potential quantum attacks. Buterin asserts that while the current capabilities of quantum computers remain insufficient to breach encryption, the potential threat is serious enough to warrant preemptive action.