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The story of Orpheus is a pitiful one.
His beloved wife Eurydice was bitten by a snake and tragically died. Heartbroken, Orpheus chose to visit the Underworld to have the opportunity to see his wife once more. As a musician of unparalleled talent, Orpheus played a heartbreaking melody with his lyre for Hades, the god of death. Hades was moved by the song, and opted to give Orpheus a chance to bring Eurydice back to life. He had one condition: Eurydice could follow Orpheus out of the Underworld when he left, but Orpheus could not turn around to look. Failing this condition would doom Eurydice to the Underworld for an eternity. Orpheus was delighted, thanking Hades and left to return back to the surface. However, Orpheus was unable to hear Eurydice’s footsteps as he ascended and his resolve began to falter. Fearing that he had been made a fool, Orpheus chose to look back only a few feet away from the exit. He turned his head to find Eurydice behind him and failed Hades’ challenge, sending Eurydice back. Stricken with grief, Orpheus chose death to reunite with his lover forever.
As I write this, Bitcoin is languishing around 85k, after hitting an all time highs just over a month ago. Altcoins have been bleeding out since last year. Argentina rugged. ByBit got hacked for $1.4B by North Korea. It’s been a brutal period for the market.
From their highs:
HYPE is down over 40%
SOL is down over 50%
PEPE is down over 70%
Virtuals is down over 75%
Trump Coin is down over 80%
Fartcoin is down over 85%
The Crypto Fear And Greed Index looks like this:
The trenches have not been faring too well either. Pump.fun is seeing a decrease in tokens being launched, tokens graduating from bonding, and overall volume.
https://x.com/n01man/status/1894697506300190767
Bitcoin dominance has been rising since the start of the year, reflecting the destruction of altcoin performance against Bitcoin.
Unsurprisingly, people are down bad. Any positions outside of BTC and USD are probably down 50% or more over the past couple months. There’s been a clear flight away from riskier assets, and it seems like the endless rotations have slowed to a halt. Sentiment is the gutter, and there is a fear prevalent. Is it over?
My answer to that is simple: I truly don’t think so. Like Orpheus, we should be looking forward from here.
I believe that we’ve come so far and survived so much from the bear market, that to give up here is simply foolish. FTX literally blew up for fuck’s sake. Operation Choke Point 2.0 was unable to kill crypto while it was weak.
Crypto has made incredible progress since the last cycle:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, $37B+ of inflows
Spot Ethereum ETFs were approved, $2.9B+ of inflows AFTER being -$687M last October
Love him or hate him, Donald Trump is undoubtedly the most crypto friendly president ever
Stablecoin market hits $200B+, significant growth since election
Crypto industry spent $160M on US elections, massive success
16 US States are considering Bitcoin/Crypto for public funds
Multiple nations are beginning to embrace crypto: Bhutan owns $1B+, Syria is eyeing Bitcoin legalization and digitizing their currency,
I would argue that crypto is more bullish than ever. The current US legislative environment is more crypto friendly than ever, and tradfi is continuing its expansion into crypto as a result. Large tradfi institutions are more active than ever in crypto. The numbers support this- Coinbase’s Q4 2024 report showed that retail trading accounted for 21% of exchange volume, compared to 2021’s high of 36%.
So, if the cycle isn’t over, then where are we?
Luckily, someone else has already done a fuck ton of research on that exact question. Thus, I will simply point you in their direction.
This chart probably makes absolutely no sense to you, you just need to know it’s bullish. This was pulled from Ostium’s article by @cointradernik that I strongly suggest you read. The article goes over a wide variety of metrics that have historically been a good indicator of when the crypto market is topped.
His conclusion is simple: we are mid cycle, perhaps early in the late period of a cycle. If if this is your first cycle, I have excellent news: this is where the most money is made.
That being said, I do have some takes that some may not like:
I think the vast majority of coins today are completely un-investable garbage. I personally believe that the majority of alt coins today will not reach new all time highs. I personally only own 2 alt coins in size.
I think a lot of meme coins are completely fucking cooked. I will name two that I think are done for: WIF and POPCAT. I will not be betting against them, but I sure as hell won’t be betting for them. Also MOODENG and PNUT reviving from here would be more impressive than Jesus reviving from the dead.
ALT L1s and ETH L2s are overpriced as fuck. I think AVAX, ARB, ATOM, OP, NEAR will underperform.
I could see 1 or 2 AI coins doing very well, but I think AI coins as a whole will not be a top performer moving forward. Similar to how AAVE and MKR haven’t been doing so bad, but most of defi isn’t doing too well imo.
If you’re reading this and made it this far, I appreciate you taking the time to read it. If you’re down bad, me too. If I had to guess, I think my net worth has probably gone down by roughly 30% since late last year. I do ask myself a lot if I would rather own anything else at the moment though, and for the most part I’m pretty confident in the stuff that I do own. My biggest regret for this period a mix of not having more BTC and not going more into USD at the highs. Fuck it we ball though.
Lastly, I could be wrong. About literally everything. I’m just sharing my thoughts and my reasoning, and betting accordingly. Suggest you do the same.
The story of Orpheus is a pitiful one.
His beloved wife Eurydice was bitten by a snake and tragically died. Heartbroken, Orpheus chose to visit the Underworld to have the opportunity to see his wife once more. As a musician of unparalleled talent, Orpheus played a heartbreaking melody with his lyre for Hades, the god of death. Hades was moved by the song, and opted to give Orpheus a chance to bring Eurydice back to life. He had one condition: Eurydice could follow Orpheus out of the Underworld when he left, but Orpheus could not turn around to look. Failing this condition would doom Eurydice to the Underworld for an eternity. Orpheus was delighted, thanking Hades and left to return back to the surface. However, Orpheus was unable to hear Eurydice’s footsteps as he ascended and his resolve began to falter. Fearing that he had been made a fool, Orpheus chose to look back only a few feet away from the exit. He turned his head to find Eurydice behind him and failed Hades’ challenge, sending Eurydice back. Stricken with grief, Orpheus chose death to reunite with his lover forever.
As I write this, Bitcoin is languishing around 85k, after hitting an all time highs just over a month ago. Altcoins have been bleeding out since last year. Argentina rugged. ByBit got hacked for $1.4B by North Korea. It’s been a brutal period for the market.
From their highs:
HYPE is down over 40%
SOL is down over 50%
PEPE is down over 70%
Virtuals is down over 75%
Trump Coin is down over 80%
Fartcoin is down over 85%
The Crypto Fear And Greed Index looks like this:
The trenches have not been faring too well either. Pump.fun is seeing a decrease in tokens being launched, tokens graduating from bonding, and overall volume.
https://x.com/n01man/status/1894697506300190767
Bitcoin dominance has been rising since the start of the year, reflecting the destruction of altcoin performance against Bitcoin.
Unsurprisingly, people are down bad. Any positions outside of BTC and USD are probably down 50% or more over the past couple months. There’s been a clear flight away from riskier assets, and it seems like the endless rotations have slowed to a halt. Sentiment is the gutter, and there is a fear prevalent. Is it over?
My answer to that is simple: I truly don’t think so. Like Orpheus, we should be looking forward from here.
I believe that we’ve come so far and survived so much from the bear market, that to give up here is simply foolish. FTX literally blew up for fuck’s sake. Operation Choke Point 2.0 was unable to kill crypto while it was weak.
Crypto has made incredible progress since the last cycle:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, $37B+ of inflows
Spot Ethereum ETFs were approved, $2.9B+ of inflows AFTER being -$687M last October
Love him or hate him, Donald Trump is undoubtedly the most crypto friendly president ever
Stablecoin market hits $200B+, significant growth since election
Crypto industry spent $160M on US elections, massive success
16 US States are considering Bitcoin/Crypto for public funds
Multiple nations are beginning to embrace crypto: Bhutan owns $1B+, Syria is eyeing Bitcoin legalization and digitizing their currency,
I would argue that crypto is more bullish than ever. The current US legislative environment is more crypto friendly than ever, and tradfi is continuing its expansion into crypto as a result. Large tradfi institutions are more active than ever in crypto. The numbers support this- Coinbase’s Q4 2024 report showed that retail trading accounted for 21% of exchange volume, compared to 2021’s high of 36%.
So, if the cycle isn’t over, then where are we?
Luckily, someone else has already done a fuck ton of research on that exact question. Thus, I will simply point you in their direction.
This chart probably makes absolutely no sense to you, you just need to know it’s bullish. This was pulled from Ostium’s article by @cointradernik that I strongly suggest you read. The article goes over a wide variety of metrics that have historically been a good indicator of when the crypto market is topped.
His conclusion is simple: we are mid cycle, perhaps early in the late period of a cycle. If if this is your first cycle, I have excellent news: this is where the most money is made.
That being said, I do have some takes that some may not like:
I think the vast majority of coins today are completely un-investable garbage. I personally believe that the majority of alt coins today will not reach new all time highs. I personally only own 2 alt coins in size.
I think a lot of meme coins are completely fucking cooked. I will name two that I think are done for: WIF and POPCAT. I will not be betting against them, but I sure as hell won’t be betting for them. Also MOODENG and PNUT reviving from here would be more impressive than Jesus reviving from the dead.
ALT L1s and ETH L2s are overpriced as fuck. I think AVAX, ARB, ATOM, OP, NEAR will underperform.
I could see 1 or 2 AI coins doing very well, but I think AI coins as a whole will not be a top performer moving forward. Similar to how AAVE and MKR haven’t been doing so bad, but most of defi isn’t doing too well imo.
If you’re reading this and made it this far, I appreciate you taking the time to read it. If you’re down bad, me too. If I had to guess, I think my net worth has probably gone down by roughly 30% since late last year. I do ask myself a lot if I would rather own anything else at the moment though, and for the most part I’m pretty confident in the stuff that I do own. My biggest regret for this period a mix of not having more BTC and not going more into USD at the highs. Fuck it we ball though.
Lastly, I could be wrong. About literally everything. I’m just sharing my thoughts and my reasoning, and betting accordingly. Suggest you do the same.
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