Polymarket-5 大玩法带你玩转预测市场
作为预测市场赛道的唯一王者,polymarket 必须是我们重点关注的对象。分享一下直接下注之外还有哪些玩法值得探索。 1.对冲交易:由于市场深度的原因,如果两个号分别同时买相同份额的yes和 no,在activity上很容易看出上farming行为,此时可以拆分订单或者拆分多号对冲;或者先市价单成交后再用限价单在最近位置挂单等待成交; 体育市场对冲:任何大点的赛事都有网站可以投注; Token合约对冲:加密货币价格预测更好对冲,直接Long/short它。永续合约无法实现完全对冲,注意爆仓风险,可以让 Grok帮忙测算,还有就是也可以选择有tge预期的合约市场(@kilo @avantis) 其他预测市场对冲:blast上的predict.fun,未来的潜力龙二 truemarkets 2.限价单做市:在market price附近有额外奖励 3.低风险大额买入:目的是做大成交量。如“Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?”,作为一个国人我相信每个人都有一个基本的判断,可以根据自己的认知进行下注,又或者逆向思考对冲交易:如果开战我在传统市场的股票必定...

近1年Crypto研究_网址收藏夹
目录:最常用工具 WEB3.0应用 资讯 position defi 稳定币 defi工具平台 合成资产 二线dex 理财平台 跨链 固定利率 衍生品 Layer2 DAO 分析工具 Web3.0 中间件 Graph 存储层 betting NFT sto_ido 现实资产 游戏 公链 cardano dfinity Fantom avalanche polkadot solana 信用 VentureCapital Idendity最常用工具CoinMarketCap 链闻 ChainNews - 区块链新闻快讯资讯信息服务平台 Etherscan China Ethereum (ETH) Blockchain Explorer Uniswap Interface zapper.fi DefiLlama - DeFi Dashboard duneanalytics.com DiscordWFeed - BitClout $CQT Covalent Query Token Economics | Covalent Dashboard — Mirror Rally : Creato...
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Polymarket-5 大玩法带你玩转预测市场
作为预测市场赛道的唯一王者,polymarket 必须是我们重点关注的对象。分享一下直接下注之外还有哪些玩法值得探索。 1.对冲交易:由于市场深度的原因,如果两个号分别同时买相同份额的yes和 no,在activity上很容易看出上farming行为,此时可以拆分订单或者拆分多号对冲;或者先市价单成交后再用限价单在最近位置挂单等待成交; 体育市场对冲:任何大点的赛事都有网站可以投注; Token合约对冲:加密货币价格预测更好对冲,直接Long/short它。永续合约无法实现完全对冲,注意爆仓风险,可以让 Grok帮忙测算,还有就是也可以选择有tge预期的合约市场(@kilo @avantis) 其他预测市场对冲:blast上的predict.fun,未来的潜力龙二 truemarkets 2.限价单做市:在market price附近有额外奖励 3.低风险大额买入:目的是做大成交量。如“Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?”,作为一个国人我相信每个人都有一个基本的判断,可以根据自己的认知进行下注,又或者逆向思考对冲交易:如果开战我在传统市场的股票必定...

近1年Crypto研究_网址收藏夹
目录:最常用工具 WEB3.0应用 资讯 position defi 稳定币 defi工具平台 合成资产 二线dex 理财平台 跨链 固定利率 衍生品 Layer2 DAO 分析工具 Web3.0 中间件 Graph 存储层 betting NFT sto_ido 现实资产 游戏 公链 cardano dfinity Fantom avalanche polkadot solana 信用 VentureCapital Idendity最常用工具CoinMarketCap 链闻 ChainNews - 区块链新闻快讯资讯信息服务平台 Etherscan China Ethereum (ETH) Blockchain Explorer Uniswap Interface zapper.fi DefiLlama - DeFi Dashboard duneanalytics.com DiscordWFeed - BitClout $CQT Covalent Query Token Economics | Covalent Dashboard — Mirror Rally : Creato...
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the next generation fair launch platform.

Basic setup: The simpler the system, the more reliable it is, and the basic setup is the most flawless.
Advanced setup: Both core functions are vulnerable to witch attacks.
Batch minting: Large numbers of transactions sent in the same block bypass cooldown times and fee mechanisms.
Hold contract authentication: No snapshot time, and the same asset can be transferred between different wallets.
Why has the project achieved such success when the core issue of fair launch has not been resolved? It's because the idea of "solving fair launch" has become a meme, combined with the inspirational boost from Ge Lao Shi and the hype around BRC20, among other factors.
Although fair launch solves the problem of misconduct by the project team, it also brings about witch problems. As a launch platform, we can only implement pre-emptive witch prevention/risk control strategies, unlike airdrops, which can do post-snapshot analysis. In theory, witches cannot be completely eliminated, and the only way to combat them is to increase their costs, such as with the following solutions:
Third-party DID data cooperation, such as Gitcoin Passport/ENS/Worldcoin/BrightID/Humanity/POAP/SBT/XXX, can be directly reused, but this option will limit the token ceiling.
Self-built zk privacy authentication scheme:
A possible solution for $FERC V3, which can combine the above third-party data for zk authentication.
Batch minting: Claim first, then mint, to solve the problem of multiple transactions in the same block, making fair launch into fair drop.
Hold contract authentication: Increase multiple contract holding conditions; add snapshot parameters, and need to connect to third-party data indexing services.
XEN's experience tells us that setting two or three parameters can create a successful application, and the key is that these parameters must be naturally chainable, such as lock-up time and ranking.
Therefore, three time parameters that can be chained can be added: mint start time, mint end time, and unlock time.
This approach can create tokens that studios cannot know the value of in advance, and everyone can see the token distribution when it is unlocked. If the token is taken by witches, it will naturally have no value, and we turn pre-emptive measures against witches into post-emptive measures!
The period from the end of minting to the unlock time is like a verification period on the chain. If a reasonable distribution consensus is reached, the token will succeed.
For example, if a platform issues a token and witches take most of it, the token will be worthless. But it doesn't matter; we can issue another one. The witches' losses will be greater, and after issuing a few more tokens, we will find a suitable distribution. The witches' accounts will become our active users, similar to free players in game mechanics, helping us filter out true value users/coins.
If the problem of fair launch is better solved, ERC20.cash can not only become a launchpad for ownerless tokens/memes but also a true launchpad for project parties, replacing Coinlist/DaoMaker and becoming a heavyweight player in the ecosystem like Uniswap.
In the bear market, Crypto OGs were ashamed to say that their projects were memes, just as we are ashamed to tell outsiders that we are playing coins. They are likely to be seen as fools.
But that's not the case!
When we get lost in a series of cool and professional terms such as Defi, NFT, Layer2, and ZK, we forget that Crypto is a meme, and Web3 is a meme. Perhaps one day they will truly change the world, but for now, they are mostly not as good as memes. Doge/Shiba/Pepe has already told us that.
The success of a project is the result of many factors. Regardless of FERC's advanced underlying technology, ordinary users can only experience it through product design and experience. In my personal understanding, the summary is that the idea of "solving fair launch" has become a meme, and the inspirational boost from Ge Lao Shi has finally ignited the market.
In this perspective, whether "fair launch" can be solved is not important, but supporting "fair launch" has become more important.
Fair Launch is the most native decentralization concept and also a resistance to the current centralized trends controlled by institutions/projects. Fair Launch tokens mock the mainstream token issuance model, and just like Bitcoin's expression towards traditional banking systems, there is no essential difference. The egalitarianism brought about by Fair Launch will be accomplished by the next #fair XXX platform, even if not implemented by #FERC.
Fair Launch and decentralization share a similar concept. Fair Launch/decentralization also means empowerment for ordinary people. In the past, only KOLs could issue memes, but now everyone has the possibility to create their own memes. FERC, as an ownerless token factory and cradle of meme tokens, has the opportunity to become Crypto's Taobao, allowing everyone to sell their token/meme culture. Traditional centralized token supermarkets like Coinlist/Daomaker have lost their Crypto Native attribute. C2C token issuance models are more in line with the original concept of decentralization, and smart contracts naturally help us solve the trust issue like "Alipay." In the context of C2C, the witch issue is not so severe. Like the "fake goods" in the early days of Taobao, there is a market if there is demand. In fact, what we should worry more about is if witches don't want to come. So, let us look forward to "there are no difficult memes in the world!"
Data reference: https://dune.com/wuligy/fair-ferc-20-overview
Due to the expectation of a new version, there have been few new token issuances on the platform recently, and the total minting number has remained around 15k. FERC's holder count has also dropped from its peak of nearly 5k to around 4k. This is the standard holding number for mainstream NFTs, and the market value of 3m (20230615) is roughly equivalent to the floor price of 10K PFP at around 0.15e (with a highest price of 8e), which just coincides with the most fomo NFT, PhantaBear(Jay Chou), in the Chinese meme market during the bull market. This is the valuation of the current bear market Chinese meme market, and it can also be said to be the real user valuation that accepts the Crypto Native concept - 3m. So, is there still room for downward exploration in the market value under the current bear market? Will it go to zero?
The bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish. The lower the gas, the more suitable for innovation. Be the first "Taobao" store owner, and start selling your own memes. After all, the "diamond booth" function of "Taobao" has already been activated.
Everyone has their own understanding of memes, and everyone has their own understanding of FERC20.
Finally, let's urge Mr. Gu to update again. Regardless of whether there are any amazing new features in the new version, looking at such low gas prices, my wallet is already starving, so take my money!

Powered by @chatgpt .
the next generation fair launch platform.

Basic setup: The simpler the system, the more reliable it is, and the basic setup is the most flawless.
Advanced setup: Both core functions are vulnerable to witch attacks.
Batch minting: Large numbers of transactions sent in the same block bypass cooldown times and fee mechanisms.
Hold contract authentication: No snapshot time, and the same asset can be transferred between different wallets.
Why has the project achieved such success when the core issue of fair launch has not been resolved? It's because the idea of "solving fair launch" has become a meme, combined with the inspirational boost from Ge Lao Shi and the hype around BRC20, among other factors.
Although fair launch solves the problem of misconduct by the project team, it also brings about witch problems. As a launch platform, we can only implement pre-emptive witch prevention/risk control strategies, unlike airdrops, which can do post-snapshot analysis. In theory, witches cannot be completely eliminated, and the only way to combat them is to increase their costs, such as with the following solutions:
Third-party DID data cooperation, such as Gitcoin Passport/ENS/Worldcoin/BrightID/Humanity/POAP/SBT/XXX, can be directly reused, but this option will limit the token ceiling.
Self-built zk privacy authentication scheme:
A possible solution for $FERC V3, which can combine the above third-party data for zk authentication.
Batch minting: Claim first, then mint, to solve the problem of multiple transactions in the same block, making fair launch into fair drop.
Hold contract authentication: Increase multiple contract holding conditions; add snapshot parameters, and need to connect to third-party data indexing services.
XEN's experience tells us that setting two or three parameters can create a successful application, and the key is that these parameters must be naturally chainable, such as lock-up time and ranking.
Therefore, three time parameters that can be chained can be added: mint start time, mint end time, and unlock time.
This approach can create tokens that studios cannot know the value of in advance, and everyone can see the token distribution when it is unlocked. If the token is taken by witches, it will naturally have no value, and we turn pre-emptive measures against witches into post-emptive measures!
The period from the end of minting to the unlock time is like a verification period on the chain. If a reasonable distribution consensus is reached, the token will succeed.
For example, if a platform issues a token and witches take most of it, the token will be worthless. But it doesn't matter; we can issue another one. The witches' losses will be greater, and after issuing a few more tokens, we will find a suitable distribution. The witches' accounts will become our active users, similar to free players in game mechanics, helping us filter out true value users/coins.
If the problem of fair launch is better solved, ERC20.cash can not only become a launchpad for ownerless tokens/memes but also a true launchpad for project parties, replacing Coinlist/DaoMaker and becoming a heavyweight player in the ecosystem like Uniswap.
In the bear market, Crypto OGs were ashamed to say that their projects were memes, just as we are ashamed to tell outsiders that we are playing coins. They are likely to be seen as fools.
But that's not the case!
When we get lost in a series of cool and professional terms such as Defi, NFT, Layer2, and ZK, we forget that Crypto is a meme, and Web3 is a meme. Perhaps one day they will truly change the world, but for now, they are mostly not as good as memes. Doge/Shiba/Pepe has already told us that.
The success of a project is the result of many factors. Regardless of FERC's advanced underlying technology, ordinary users can only experience it through product design and experience. In my personal understanding, the summary is that the idea of "solving fair launch" has become a meme, and the inspirational boost from Ge Lao Shi has finally ignited the market.
In this perspective, whether "fair launch" can be solved is not important, but supporting "fair launch" has become more important.
Fair Launch is the most native decentralization concept and also a resistance to the current centralized trends controlled by institutions/projects. Fair Launch tokens mock the mainstream token issuance model, and just like Bitcoin's expression towards traditional banking systems, there is no essential difference. The egalitarianism brought about by Fair Launch will be accomplished by the next #fair XXX platform, even if not implemented by #FERC.
Fair Launch and decentralization share a similar concept. Fair Launch/decentralization also means empowerment for ordinary people. In the past, only KOLs could issue memes, but now everyone has the possibility to create their own memes. FERC, as an ownerless token factory and cradle of meme tokens, has the opportunity to become Crypto's Taobao, allowing everyone to sell their token/meme culture. Traditional centralized token supermarkets like Coinlist/Daomaker have lost their Crypto Native attribute. C2C token issuance models are more in line with the original concept of decentralization, and smart contracts naturally help us solve the trust issue like "Alipay." In the context of C2C, the witch issue is not so severe. Like the "fake goods" in the early days of Taobao, there is a market if there is demand. In fact, what we should worry more about is if witches don't want to come. So, let us look forward to "there are no difficult memes in the world!"
Data reference: https://dune.com/wuligy/fair-ferc-20-overview
Due to the expectation of a new version, there have been few new token issuances on the platform recently, and the total minting number has remained around 15k. FERC's holder count has also dropped from its peak of nearly 5k to around 4k. This is the standard holding number for mainstream NFTs, and the market value of 3m (20230615) is roughly equivalent to the floor price of 10K PFP at around 0.15e (with a highest price of 8e), which just coincides with the most fomo NFT, PhantaBear(Jay Chou), in the Chinese meme market during the bull market. This is the valuation of the current bear market Chinese meme market, and it can also be said to be the real user valuation that accepts the Crypto Native concept - 3m. So, is there still room for downward exploration in the market value under the current bear market? Will it go to zero?
The bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish. The lower the gas, the more suitable for innovation. Be the first "Taobao" store owner, and start selling your own memes. After all, the "diamond booth" function of "Taobao" has already been activated.
Everyone has their own understanding of memes, and everyone has their own understanding of FERC20.
Finally, let's urge Mr. Gu to update again. Regardless of whether there are any amazing new features in the new version, looking at such low gas prices, my wallet is already starving, so take my money!

Powered by @chatgpt .
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