TL;DR
In summary, during the observed period from June 14 to June 24, the dynamics between Equilibria (EQB) and PenPie (PNP) in the vePendle battle underwent significant shifts. Initially, PenPie held the upper hand with vePendle overpowering Equilibria, but on June 20, Equilibria began gaining momentum. The vePendle difference (PNP-EQB) turned negative on June 22, indicating a convergence between PenPie and Equilibria. Notably, Pendle's Total Value Locked (TVL) reached an impressive all-time high of nearly $113 million.
However, an unexpected turn of events occurred on June 24 when the vePendle difference index (PNP-EQB) shifted to a positive value, signifying that PenPie's vePendle officially surpassed Equilibria's. Meanwhile, Pendle's TVL continues its pursuit of a new ATH, adding further intrigue to the unfolding developments.
Equilibria's surge in vePendle volume can be attributed to a strategic partnership involving a solicitation of bribers with corresponding rewards. Additionally, the rise in the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) ratio for locking $EQB in exchange for vlEQB may have contributed to the increased vePendle. PenPie made a surprising move with the launch of Pendle Rush #3, reclaiming a dominant position over Equilibria as the vePendle difference crossed the zero mark.
Furthermore, considering the perspective of the Degen/Alpha community, Equilibria received more reminders within a 30-day period, possibly due to its earlier Initial DEX Offering (IDO). However, PenPie demonstrated its attractiveness within a 7-day timeframe, receiving a higher number of prompts. The recent launch of PenPie's IDO is expected to impact its appeal compared to Equilibria, and monitoring the coming weeks will provide valuable insights into the interest from the Degen/Alpha community.
LSDfi is coming!
The market has entered a prolonged lull following the explosive FUD surrounding Binance and the SEC. However, in recent days, a string of positive developments has propelled Bitcoin back to the $29K threshold, with BTC.D surpassing the 50% mark. Furthermore, Binance Research's newly released report, "LSDfi: When Liquid Staking Meets DeFi," has generated more significant buzz in the rapidly expanding LSDfi sector, which has shown robust growth since the year's inception.
According to Binance Research, currently, the staking ratio of $ETH stands at 16.1%, which is significantly lower than the average of 58.1% observed in the top 20 PoS chains. However, the recent implementation of withdrawals post-Shapella has made staking more appealing, allowing participants to exit their positions at any time.
As a result, it is expected that the staking ratio will increase, narrowing the gap and providing a favorable environment for LSD and LSDfi protocols. On-chain data already indicates a growing demand for $ETH staking, with the staking ratio rising from less than 15% before Shapella to over 16% currently.
Moreover, over 4.6 million $ETH has been staked since the Shapella upgrade, and the validation queue currently stands at 46 days, demonstrating strong interest in staking.
Although the adoption of LSDfi protocols, as measured by TVL (Total Value Locked), has increased, the industry is still relatively small. Given that most projects have recently launched, it is still early days for the industry. However, as LSDs gain more traction and investors seek yield-generating opportunities, it is likely that we will witness increased innovation and project launches to meet the rising demand.
In terms of market penetration, TVL in LSDfi protocols currently represents less than 3% of the total addressable market based on LSD market capitalization. While it is unrealistic to expect 100% penetration as some LSD holders may have reservations about using LSDfi protocols, the low single-digit penetration suggests significant room for growth.
Pendle Wars
Amidst the gradual expansion of the LSDfi sector, Pendle has emerged as one of the key players. In less than a year, Pendle's Total Value Locked (TVL) has soared from under $20 million to an impressive ~ $115 million.
This remarkable growth has had a significant impact on the price of $PENDLE, which has surged over 10 times year-to-date, rising from $0.04x to $0.611. Leveraging its veTokenomic model, Pendle is poised to ignite a fierce battle, rivaling the intensity of the Curvewar.
The Current State of the Pendle Wars: Equilibria's Retaliatory Strike
Please note that, in the context of the Pendle Wars, Stake DAO (sdPENDLE) is also a participant. However, their vePendle holdings are relatively small, amounting to approximately 810,218,88021 vePendle (according to DeFi Wars - Pendle Wars). Therefore, in this article, my focus will be solely on the fierce competition between PenPie and Equilibria.
Firstly, I would like to extend my apologies to everyone and rectify some information from my previous tweet.
After verifying the data on Discord, I have discovered that the ePendle amount of Equilibria on Arbitrum will not be included in the project's overall vePendle data. However, PenPie's holdings will continue to be counted on both chains.
Nevertheless, even after deducting the ePendle amount of Equilibria on Arbitrum, the data indicates that the battle between PenPie and Equilibria remains fiercely contested. The competition shows no signs of abating.
After removing the ePendle section from Equilibria on the Arbitrum network, I have redesigned the chart to compare the metrics as follows:
Let's dive deeper into the chart, bearing in mind that my observations begin from 6/14, and I will provide updates on Twitter regarding any new developments. The initial trend reveals PenPie's dominance, with vePendle overpowering Equilibria from June 14 to June 23. However, a notable shift occurred on June 20, where Equilibria started gaining momentum.
The vePendle difference (PNP-EQB) reflects a sudden convergence between PenPie and Equilibria, turning negative on June 22 with a difference of approximately -1,541,299. Interestingly, during this period, Pendle's Total Value Locked (TVL) soared, reaching a remarkable all-time high of nearly $113 million.
Although Equilibria had recently outperformed PenPie, an unexpected twist unfolded on June 24. The vePendle difference index (PNP-EQB) shifted to a positive value, indicating a difference of 27,118.47. This signifies that the amount of vePendle held by PenPie has officially surpassed Equilibria. Meanwhile, Pendle's TVL continues to strive for a new ATH, introducing a captivating element to the ongoing developments.
Here are some important symbols and some data to understand in this chart:
Orange: Represents the quantity of $PENDLE held by $PENDLE holders on both the Ethereum and Arbitrum chains, which they bring to PenPie to earn yield.
Blue: Represents the quantity of $PENDLE held by $PENDLE holders on the Ethereum, which they bring to Equilibria to earn yield.
Gray: Indicates the difference between the amount of $PENDLE held in PenPie and Equilibria (PenPie-Equilibria).
If the value is greater than 0, it means that PenPie has a higher amount of $PENDLE than Equilibria (PenPie is in the lead).
If the value is less than 0, it means that PenPie has a lower amount of $PENDLE compared to Equilibria (Equilibria is in the lead).
Yellow: Represents Pendle's Total Value Locked (TVL) sourced from Defilama.
Please note that all the data mentioned above is based on a specific time frame, starting from June 14th and continuing up to the present. Updates will be provided on a daily basis at random intervals.
Data:
Notably, PenPie's Total Value Locked (TVL) has exhibited a slight cooling trend since June 14. As per Defilama's TVL comparison among Pendle, PenPie, and Equilibria, it becomes evident that Equilibria is not only striving to surpass PenPie but is also experiencing significant growth in its own TVL. Initially, PenPie held a considerably larger TVL than Equilibria, but its growth has been relatively modest and consistent since June 14. Conversely, Equilibria started with a notably lower TVL but has seen significant growth starting from June 19 onwards. However, an interesting turn of events occurred on June 24, with PenPie's TVL suddenly aligning with the vePendle difference (PNP-EQB). This prompts the question: What exactly is unfolding in this dynamic scenario?
Pendle Rush #3: A Game-Changer for vePendle Dominance Over Equilibria
Equilibria's recent surge in vePendle volume, surpassing PenPie, can be attributed to a strategic partnership that involved a solicitation of bribers accompanied by corresponding rewards. Although the monetary incentives offered may not have been exceedingly attractive, this initiative proved to be a catalyst for Equilibria's remarkable growth.
Moreover, the increase in vePendle can also be attributed to the significant rise in the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) ratio for locking $EQB in exchange for vlEQB. This ratio experienced a substantial jump from 78.84% on June 15 to 104.72% on June 24. While it remains uncertain whether these factors directly influenced the sudden growth in vePendle, it is clear that shortly after these developments, Equilibria's vePendle surpassed that of PenPie in terms of volume.
Despite facing previous challenges in the vePendle battle against Equilibria, PenPie made a surprising move on June 23 with the launch of Pendle Rush #3. As a result, the vePendle difference (PNP-EQB) crossed the zero mark, reclaiming a dominant position over Equilibria on June 24. While the competitive strategies Equilibria will employ next remain uncertain, it is evident that Pendle Rush #3 has significantly impacted the market, generating substantial appeal among $PENDLE holders.
The Degen/Alpha Perspective: Gaining Insights
Let's delve into the data provided by Alpha Scan, a popular Degen/Alpha aggregator on Twitter that enables users to monitor projects discussed within the Degen/Alpha community. Specifically, let's analyze the level of interest surrounding Equilibria and PenPie from the Degen/Alpha perspective.
It is evident that Equilibria has received more reminders within a 30-day period compared to PenPie, with a difference of 5 reminders. This can be attributed to Equilibria launching its Initial DEX Offering (IDO) earlier than PenPie in early June. However, it's important to note that PenPie has demonstrated its attractiveness within a 7-day timeframe, being prompted 41 times compared to Equilibria's 12 prompts.
Furthermore, it should be highlighted that PenPie launched its IDO this week, which could have a significant impact on PenPie's appeal, especially when compared to Equilibria. It would be crucial to closely monitor the weeks following PenPie's IDO to gain a better understanding of Degen/Alpha's interest in both Equilibria and PenPie as the initial enthusiasm may begin to stabilize.
Conclusion
And that concludes the key information about the ongoing Pendle Wars. What are your thoughts on this? Do you believe PenPie will emerge victorious in the Pendle Wars? I would love to hear your opinions in the comments!
All of this is for informational purposes only, and this article is not investment advice.
I hope that the information provided above will give you an overview of the Pendle Wars. Follow me on Twitter and subscribe to my Substack to stay updated on the latest insights, prominent projects, and current narratives in the market.