Applying regression discontinuity to rounding in authorization buffers is just one example of how causal inference can improve customer experiences and generate significant business impact. Discontinuous thresholds naturally appear throughout consumer-facing products beyond payment systems and provide an opportunity to estimate (local) treatment effects without having to first run A/B tests. Other areas where regression discontinuity could be applied include relevance thresholds in search or ads, targeting thresholds for incentives, or product availability thresholds. If there is a threshold that generates a discontinuous product experience, regression discontinuity can be applied!

If you would like to learn more about our work, check out the intro to our team or our upcoming posts on projects we’ve worked on. You can follow tech-at-instacart to be notified as they are published.

And a special shoutout goes to Aditya Karan, a former Instacart PhD Intern, who was instrumental in bringing this project to life!