02.07.2022

BTCUSDT

I feel quite bullish even though I just puked my swing long that I might re-enter if I start seing some remarkable reactions that would lead to some upside.

Felling like this is a sweep of some lows before some upside continuation, and I highly doubt this will go any lower than the current yearly low.

09.07.2022

BTCUSDT

Still quite bullish overall, we’ve taken out the previous high from the end of June so basic structure is bullish.

If we reclaim 23k’ and start trading there for a bit, I think we could see some kind of big dead-cat-bounce to 28k’/30k’ with potentially a DeFi hype season, if that doesn’t happen, probably a slow grind to 30k’ nonetheless due to the huge 3AC liquidity gap.

However what I’m really expecting is a capitulation in September.

22.07.2022

BTCUSDT

We’re currently trading around a High Volume Node I had identified a couple of months back, we funnily got a nice bounce inside that same block on the way down and we have now marked a temporary top at the exact same level.

Both times I totally missed the move, because of a mix of doubt regarding Volume Profile but also because of the fact that I’ve been more focused on intraday levels and intraday trading during the last few weeks. This focus on intraday trading comes to show that the intraday levels are very different from the swing levels, I remember trying to do intraday while using these swing levels -> only took losses when doing so.

When it comes to my current bias, I would like to see some kind of pullback into a higher low, shaking out some weak longs and letting me get into a spot swing long with an invalidation around 19keks. However even if not many people are expecting this kind of move, I think it’s a bit too “mechanical” and now that almost everyone has identified the current uptrend, a bunch of retail would hop on longs and most likely get trapped. As an anonymous twitter user said: “Once you’ve identified the range, it’s probably already over”, I think the same applies to trends, at least when momentum isn’t too important.

To conclude this little analysis, I think the best idea to stick with if I want to enter the market with size for a swing would be either to scale into a long sub 20keks until early-mid august and cut it if there still hasn’t been any considerable upwards move approaching mid september or scale very slowly into a short around 30keks and cut it if there isn’t any kind of capitulation before the end of september.

25.07.2022

FOMC on Wednesday, pullback happening, financial events coming up could give very good entries even though I don’t really want to get my spot bids filled on a huge single print. I’ll be buying coins between 21k and 19.5k, I deeply believe we get a lower high to scare out participants before moving to 30keks.

10.08.2022

I don’t really have a clear bias/read on the current PA, maybe because I’m not spending as much time as I usually am in front of the charts. Just think 21.8k is a good PERP buy.

14.08.2022

I feel like I can read the current market way better than a week ago. This is what I’m thinking of, of course PA never is as clean as that but that’s a rough idea of how I should fit my bias into my trade ideas. From a Macro perspective, I think a nice swing low filling some of the single-prints left behind would be good for a healthy rally up. What I’m really looking to trade is a retest of the cluster PoC, invalidation above above the SFP is really clean and filling the single-prints seems rational.

Clean view of the levels I’m talking about on MP

18.08.2022

Single-prints finally filled, I genuinely think 23keks is a decent buy however I’m biased that this is going to puke lower after a retest of the cluster at 24keks. Additionally we’ve got trad-fi reaching resistance…

Bounce off 23keks didn’t happen, I have been trading very little/poorly these past two weeks so I didn’t even try to trade my gut instinct especially when data was pointing downwards.

For now I’m looking for some kind of SFP around the low pointed out by the level on the chart -> additionally, you’ve got some kind of dummy “double-bottom” that has formed there, classic normies bottom confirmation.

Would love to be more successful during these last weeks before school kicks back, I honestly feel like I was doing a better job at trading Asia session and playing QM patterns for some reason -> maybe my edge is there, who knows ?

Lastly, I think it’s still too “early” before we take out the lows and puke properly under 20k but let’s see.

24.08.2022

Had a proper look at the charts tonight and this is what I’m thinking of.

I currently have two main ideas, one is up and the other one is down [obviously].

But with a little nuance ; when it comes to the first idea of going up, I tend to think that it’s the most unhealthy way to go: unhealthy habits lead to spikes of volatility and in this case, capitulation, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing when you think of it. If we go up, I believe we fill this second single-print that people aren’t necessarily looking at, there’s already some sort of huge liquidity gap with this first single-print and the structure right above it seems so poor that price will most likely rally across it straight into ≈ 23100. After this event, I’d really be interested in getting short 24000 with strong conviction however when it comes to a swing play, with that kind of reclaim, new highs are still in the mind of the participants.

Now I’ll go through my other narrative which is down. After a boring range that could still continue for a bit, I think we could go lower for a bit giving a bit of importance to the three-drive marked out on the chart above. When I say “lower for a bit” I don’t mean that we would see sub-20000 however I’m looking at 20672 for a very clean SFP that would take out our current garbage lows formed with a “double-bottom” and also the last swing low we had in the more macro-uptrend we’re in currently. In my opinion, a swing as mentioned would healthier for a long-term continuation of the uptrend and would increase our chances of getting to 30keks.

Lastly, if we don’t see any strength around 20700, sub-20000 is at stake and potentially new lows, showing that the current uptrend compression we’ve been in all summer is finally over.

30.08.2022

The SFP from 20700 mentioned above did not happen simply because the level I was referring to had already been “tested” a couple of days back.

Thus we just puked through the lows seeking a new value area.

This is my current catch of things. We’re starting to form some kind of tight range, however, as I know, ranges never last long once you’ve identified them, that’s why I’m thinking that we’ll be having a clean sweep of the lows, maybe quite deep due to the fact that 19,500keks is the last area I’ve identified for a bounce.

Once the lows finally look good, time to go for these dirty flat highs, and probably into the nice level at the top of the chart.

Now I’m going to do a little macro-analysis on the daily chart.

For now, my gut instinct is telling my that the gammy low shown on the chart will give some kind of swing failure into an rangy but volatile end of 2022.

The other possibility is down, slow “price discovery” and potentially generational buying occasions however, in that case, volume will dry out and trading this will be quite painful.

12.10.2022

BTCUSDT

My current catch of thing is that we get a sharp move up soonish, it’s been pretty much down only for a few days now, slow bleed downwards means sharp reversion at some point especially when leaving all these lHighs/lLows.

I’m also quite keen on the current bottom structure, could be cleaner but there was an easy QM to be played, nice sweep of the poor lows and now we’re getting a lot of CVD absorption as highlighted meaning that someone is buying up these marketed coins.

Just to add that we could still go sharply downwards but single-print right under 20k gets filled soon imo.