26.06.2022

QM pattern after an SFP that sweept wHi. Placing short orders on the daily cluster that also is a high volume node on a weekly volume profile. Looking for some aggressive buying shown through the CVD when being filled. Invalidation right above the SFP, planning on moving the stop if the swing that fills me makes a higher high then a higher low, invalidation will then be at that previous swing high. Taking profit on the swing low of the first swing of the QM. Timestop -> not holding this through a DO.

Edit -> moved my stop to the higher high given the fact that we just swept the low, still planning on closing this trade if I have to hold through DO.

Closed before DO, didn’t hit my take profit.

28.06.2022

QM pattern again -> going short on a hvn with a bit of confluence. VWAP close to entry, bullish absorbtion on CVD. Also entries are near yesterday’s PoC. Invalidation if daily high is swept. Hoping to see aggro buying into my entry aswell as size eventually getting stuck to the upside. yLo already swept, might want to remove orders if we go even lower -> possibly seing downside continuation that would eventually go into major levels for a mean rev.

Edit ->went lower, canceled orders.

03.07.2022

HVN level reclaimed, playing a retest of it. Confluence with VWAP, Bybit CVD seems overbought. Spot CVD following the move nicely (been accumulating the whole accumulation). Stop right under the accumulation lows, not below scam wick so feeling rather comfy -> If I get stopped, scam wicks stops are most likely going to get ran too. Taking profit once we reach HVN higher, not planning on doing active management. No time limit either, Sunday move might be scam move however stocks have been printing green candles recently while corn was budgeting -> momentum might catch up.

Edit -> closed out in less than 24 hours, quite proud of this one, execution was alright, move was properly captured, closed the trade on a wick. However, there is still room to improve when it comes to the entry, price stayed slightly under it for a couple of hours until London open, something worth mentioning.

09.07.2022

Getting orders down to short Thursdays Naked Point of Control. Hoping to get filled either today or on the Initial balance. Due to the current “Normal day”, I’m expecting an Open-test-drive leading to expansion to the downside. Taking profit on the poor lows of Thursday afternoon. No confluence from CVD, trying something out. Not really comfortable with the stop though.

Edit -> fully out, nailed the exit however not a great fan of the entry, I think I could improve it, didn’t catch the whole SFP.

13.07.2022

Taking this QM pattern forming right after bearish CPI announcement earlier on today. Placing buy orders in the cluster formed right before pumping into a lost NPoC. Invalidation around todays lows, planning on managing my stop if we print a lower low followed by a higher high on the 30m chart. Taking profit on Mondays PoC. A bit of confluence coming from FTX spot and perp bidding heavily aswell as the VWAP and todays PoC. Also worth noting that todays Initial Balance wasn’t an Open-drive to the downside as of the previous 3 days, expecting a green close. Time-limit is 24 hours, trying to catch a decent size move while doing intraday.

Edit -> Targeted Naked point of control was reached before my fill, closing orders, maybe looking to long higher or wait for accumulation and go short.

16.07.2022

Traded without any thoughts or bias, out of pure laziness. As it bothers me a bit, I will consider my July Risk Reward = 0R from now on.

18.07.2022

QM pattern = punting asks on the cluster that followed the first shoulder up. Invalidation above that first wick up, rather wide stop mainly because of the fact that we’re in a trend day. Taking profit at the bottom of the initial QM, around cVaH. In terms of time, I would appreciate holding this through DO giving a possible expansion depending on IB, however I will cut this trade if I’m in for more than 24 hours. Would like to see some confluence when it comes to aggressive participation in the market, big delta approaching my entry, size stuck to the upside and spot/FTX giving a little bit of confluence as usual.

Edit -> removed the orders because there wasn’t a QM forming anymore however, might put some short orders down near yesterday high for a potential open-rejection reverse on MP. Very small size, tight invalidation, just trying something out.

Last update -> fully out, nailed PA on open strangely enough, even did a little tweet about it. Came out on yesterdays PoC, proud of this one, in and out in less than 30 minutes for a very good RR, very encouraging for the days to come.

20.07.2022

QM pattern, shorts getting aggressive on news about Tesla selling coins. Big red CVD candle while still being in an open-test drive day which gives good entries near IB. Rather scuffed invalidation, really considering the QM to happen, not a greedy RR anyways. Taking profit on a lvn a bit higher at the same level as the first leg of the QM, also happens to be todays VP PoC however I think we’ve had our local top for the days to come. Don’t want to be holding this across a DO though.

Edit -> Fully out for a roughly 1R mainly because I trailed my entry with limit orders a bit higher to get fully in, something that I am not really keen on, I prefer nailing an entry while not being entierly filled. Also worth mentioning my exit wasn’t the best, targeted a lvn instead of a hvn, also there were liquidations starting to come up right after I got out, not exactly what you want to see in order to have an excellent exit.

Nonetheless, July = 3.5R currently, I think I’ll enable myself to use up to 2x leverage on certain trades if I reach 5R, and if I get to 10R, might purchase an exochart subscription however I’m not going to over-trade for the reasons stated here.

23.07.2022

I’m placing short orders in the pink block that contains Fridays nPoC from the main CEXs. Thinking of taking profit just under a poor low that has recently popped up, approaching a little bulk of volume on the weekly VP. If the poor low gets taken out before my fill, I’ll be targeting the daily level marked out it black right under it however I have the conviction that I might get filled on an upside rallye because FTX has been properly buying the dip in the last few hours, not much short liquidations yet, CVD still rather flat and bybit flat aswell showing a lack of participants playing the move up. Placed a stop above Fridays high which was actually a MP/VP nPoC so if it gets taken out, we’re most likely just going to moon higher. Still trying to maintain this 24 hours timestop however this is a rather big move so not 100% confident, might make it though if I just don’t enter like an ape but these last few days have been very slow so we might get a little bit of volatility next weeks hopefully.

25.07.2022

Not filled yet on the trade above, still got the orders down. However we had a potential temporary top earlier with an ugly sfp on btc, way cleaner on eth due to a stupid rise of OI there.

Trying this out though, hoping for an open rejection reverse on DO sweeping yDay poor low. Taking profit on yDay nPoC, stupid stop for a quick trade, small size. The only reason I’m playing this is because of a successful DO trade I had a couple of days ago.

Edit -> stopped out, shitty trade, didn’t have much confluence nor conviction. -1R, GN.

26.07.2022

Putting short orders on todays Initial Balance that was an open-drive followed by a trend day -> aiming for bearish continuation even though bottom formed with a clean three drive pattern, today was a trend day which is good to go with and fade any violent pump. A few liquidations and OI drop on this rally up, really looking for a slow retrace move. Taking profit on a daily support level, invalidation above todays IB. FTX starting to sell, Spot is bidding hard while it was offside for the whole move up. A little bit of confluence coming fro yesterdays VP VaH and Saturdays MP/VP PoC.

Edit -> cancelled because got frontran.

27.07.2022

Would like to short this level back into todays (26th of July) value area. Very clean MP/VP nPoC with a neat invalidation above the 25th’s SFP/VaH. As usual, I want to see aggressive market buyers coming in and getting absorbed up there, especially on an announcement about rate hikes during FOMC, bulls getting euphoric while late shorters get wiped out because of the compression that has been happening for a few days now to the downside. To conclude, I’m noticing that the spot sell pressure from OKEx yesterday is finally over, and FTX is slowly starting to market bid the low ; let’s see.

Update -> Stopped out on FOMC, lesson learnt there, while good traders were recommanding to stay out of the market for this particular event, I left my orders and to add on to that, I wasn’t able to do any kind of active management because I was away. I also didn’t listen to my own directional bias, even though I could’ve nailed that trade in other circumstances, my bias was still bullish nonetheless, thankfully my spot exposure hedged my small loss. In all of the euphoria and panic, I started to want to close my spot long for more exposure on this loosing short, something I shouldn’t even think of in the first place. To conclude this little self-analysis, even in the most extreme conditions, I mustn’t forget that good entries flip into a level that plays against you.

31.07.2022

I’m interested in getting long on this cluster trade idea. Entry on a slightly less obvious composite VP bulk, confluence from the 28th MP/VP nPoC. Taking profit on a composite VP PoC , invalidation under the high volume candle that gave a swing low before giving this upwards move. In order to be filled today (31st of July), MP IB theory of an open rejection reverse will be falsified intraday thus not much confluence there. I think that if I get stopped out , BTC won’t be a good buy until it fills it’s singleprints around 21keks or catches up on bullish momentum.

01.08.2022

Got partially filed this morning, slighlty move my take profit, aiming for yesterdays nPoC instead of composite PoC for a slightly worse RR. Don’t have much confluence from FTX, mainly selling ever since I’ve been filled, spot saw some bullish absorption and they are the ones pushing the price in my favor for the minute, bybit flat. OI been taking out late short stops from my basic observation, I don’t have access to any solid orderflow as of now to notice any unusual delta bars / CVD divergences or size stuck offside. Also good to mention that IB formed an open-drive that is currently acting as resistance, leaving my last few orders in case we move a little bit lower due to this structure issue and eventually catch some bullish momentum. Ideally would like to see the IB resistance flip support and a clean v-reversal to be 100% sure that I’m good to go.

Edit -> Almost closed the position thinking we were going to get a SFP of todays high, however stocks holding well enabling bitcoin to fight a bit.

Also noticing FTX is currently selling, in hopes of catching the SFP, currently getting caught offside. Spot leading.

Time-stopped myself for a little loss after 24 hours in this looser (-0.6R). A few lessons to be learnt here, firstly, when it comes to the entry and the target. Entry was really bad, had orders in the middle of no where, nPoC a couple of ticks under my entry is what played out for a bounce and it’s also there I should’ve entered. When it comes to the target, I have to target somekind of magnet structure such as a poor level or a given high in a downside compression, not another nPoC which would probably make price pullback but the main issue here is that the current trend is counter-traded so I really need a likely exit. I also noticed the SFP yesterday and didn’t active manage it, one of the reasons for that is that stocks were holding properly, something that I shouldn’t acknowledge especially when I’m missing data such as delta bars, the pullback we had back into the highs was probably a high delta pullback getting totally absorbed by FTX sellers.

Lastly I’d like to show some data I had access to when I was sitting in that trade, OI started significantly decreasing after the SFP I mentionned previously, clearly stating that longs were offside therefore they started puking their positions. What I should’ve been looking for was a significant OI decrease while price was slowly grinding upwards -> shorts offside puking their positions fueling the rallye.

07.08.2022

Playing this cluster trade for a nice RR, shorting yesterdays chop. Confluence with Yesterdays MP/VP nPoC and yday VWAP close. Stop above yday high. Taking profit once the 5ths single-print get filled.

Edit -> stopped out, the problem here is that I ignored huge size stuck right on the daily PoC and they just puked through my stop. Next time I should be more conservative as well as see when size is stuck on an entry or at a key level.

Not a great start to August.

I would also like to add that there was a few tools showing a potential reversal signal.

Bounce off PoC, big size stuck under it and VWAP holding on 5000 tick candle close.

This was the trade that I should’ve taken, clean invalidation above the swing high of the cluster before inefficiency, TP at PoC was less clearer but RR gives a good idea of where I should close if I were to play conservatively.

13.08.2022

Taking this Cluster Trade for a nice R:R. Entry on a cluster confluence from yesterday VP/MP nPoC and VWAP close. Stop under the candle that wicked out some longs from the cluster right before. Taking profit at a potential area of SFP -> weird ass double-top where normies have their stops at. Confluence from yDay IB too. Always looking for some kind of divergence, high delta and volatility coming into my entry aswell as Bybit being offside and FTX/spot w/ me.

14.08.2022

Changed the trade idea above due to the SFP this morning that swept my exit and also modified the current micro-structure.

15.08.2022

Just got filled, nice pick up on passive buying, sellers stuck offside and big red delta into entry is good to see. Also good to mention I’ve yet again got some confluence from the VWAP close of yDay and exhaustion on CVD, now waiting to see who does what on aggr. Planning on cutting if I see something I don’t like.

Edit -> very slow PA, not much reaction from my entry. I think I will be cutting this if there isn’t any upwards move until US open.

Edit -> Round-tripped my long right before US open for a .5R, now looking to short the area where I wanted to close out longs.

18.08.2022

Looking to short this nPoC with a clear invalidation, just waiting for the current structure to evolve to target a cluster or potentially a poor level.

21.08.2022

Missed entry because I was doing something else = bad execution, but just wanted to write stuff down. Wanted to take this trade because no particular structure to take into consideration rn so I wanted to play this with a VWAP close + nice cluster on VP, stop just above VaH of big volatility day + sweep of a shitty high from yDay. Had confluence from Delta’s and liquidations, was just looking for the poor low below and some of the lows of the cluster for partial tp.

22.08.2022

Oh well, the only trade I don’t take this months turns out to be a winner, on to the next one.

Want to get this SFP trade on this shitty bottom structure. You’ve got this “double-bottom” with a potential nice three-drive that would appear if my idea is right. Additionally, the entry point is the nPoC of the 16th of July, invalidation on the same low of that day. Take profit conservative on a single-print from today that isn’t filled yet.

I’ll be trying out something with this trade, half of the size will be executed with limit-orders as mentioned above, and the other half will be executed with market orders once we get some kind of engulfing candle on LTF, invalidation at the lows, greater R:R.

23.08.2022

I want to get filled on an SFP of the current range high. Confluence comes with the nVaH of both VP/MP of the 19th of August. Also worth mentioning that the corn seems overbought right now, a lot of aggressive buying absorption, I think one last squeeze on a daily open before unwind would be realistic. Taking profit conservatively on the PoC of the 19th and invalidated if we start filling single-prints. Not much to add when it comes to my current personal narrative/bias.

26.08.2022

Forgot about the trade above but I cancelled the orders for some reason while the trade idea was actually good, for that reason, I am planning on cancelling less orders.

BTCUSDT 2.5R

Looking for a solid 5% move, probably because of todays volatility I’m thinking that I’ll be able to catch that in a single day even if it’s highly unlikely.

When it comes to the setup, I’m trying to catch this little cluster trade, invalidation above todays SFP and taking profit “conservatively” on an old TPO nPoC. As always, I’ll have my eyes on active participation in the market, looking to get the confluence without forcing anything as usual. I think price will slowly fill single-prints above however depending on the structure, I might move my take profit and trim some size off if we get into a poor low for example. I’d like to add that there are some single-prints waiting to be filled a lot higher so that’s the reason I could potentially be stopped out, thus I would love to see some volatility coming into my entry aswell as no accumulation/ranging once I’m filled. Lastly, for this trade, I’ll be trying out aggressive trail-stops so I’ll also be updating my trade with that.

28.08.2022

Looking for an SFP of yLo with confluence from an old Bybit BTCUSDT VP nPoC. Will enter if I get at least a bullish engulf on the 3m chart, volatility, liquidations and actual size stuck on the SFP wick. Invalidation at the lows, targeting some very conservative structure such as todays VaH.

29.08.2022

Didn’t get the confluence to enter the trade above, now looking at 19515 for similar execution.

Edit -> got into this SFP trade after snipping the bottom with a single small-sized order. Did my ass with this market entry shit, RR unbelievably crap if I go for a conservative take profit, so I’m looking for yDay nPoC, invalidation under yLo. Not much size stuck, a bit of liquidations but at least I have sCB and FTX showing a bit of confluence…

Edit -> Trailed a stop under the last higher low, don’t want to be sitting to long in this position especially during cash opens.

Other than that, data suggests I could exit, keeping an eye on the footprint and on what other participants are doing.

Edit -> Fully closed this long for a decent RR, last time I’m entering the market aggressively. I usually like the head start that’s given by a good limit-order trade, can’t stand being under-water - maybe something I should work on psychologically.

Now looking at yDay TPO and VP nPoC to enter a cluster trade, the only issue is that there still is a lot of gaps of above, compression to the downside that could easily get wicked through, might have to sit on my hands for this one.

Cancelled the order of the trade idea above, I’m not getting the data confluence I’m looking for, I’m also unhappy with the timeline right now, US cash open is in an hour.

Glade I took into consideration data, we just rallied upwards after US open. Quite proud that I actually managed to deal with bad data and just moved on without missing more than a little scalp setup.

Nonetheless, I really like the level I wanted to play, therefore I’ll be trying to get into a high R continuation trade, half the usual august risk though so R will be divided in 2 when acknowledging it. Target is s-p a little higher, invalidation is the swing low given by a first test of the level played. I’ll cancel orders if the target is reached before I’m in or if data is garbage.

Last edit for today - closed all orders, going to relax a bit after a day looking at the charts while being quite tired.

30.08.2022

Just a little sentence to mention that from now on, whenever I’m too lazy or can’t find enough confluence to note down a trade, I’ll be sticking to trading with the smallest size possible [0.001 contracts].

28.09.2022

Back at it after a full month, busy with school and DeFi.

Looking at this nPoC for a cluster trade. Invalidation above bart’s sweep high, clean invalidation imo because of s_p above, clear sweep before downward move and three drive. Don’t have much of an idea of where I should buy back, entering the trade will require some fp confluence as per usual with potential active management (trailing stops) if I don’t find a nice exit until then.

Don’t have much of a bias right now, might be just as well - think we see new lows due to everything going down right now.

30.09.2022

My level got ‘frontran’, removed orders • now looking for something else definitely not going to leave orders sleeping on that shitty level.

02.10.2022

Uptober, planning on trading a lot more this month now that tealstreet offers an pnl overview.

Current catch of things · highlighted level is the pivotal area for next week ; single-print above, might be time to fill it.

Other than that, if I had to play something to end the week, I’d look for todays high to be taken out, invalidation right under friday liquidity gap and I would target current PoC.

03.10.2022

New day, new trade idea, as it should be. Idea right above got invalidated after daily close.

Looking to long on this accumulation supply zone mentioned yesterday, nice confluence from the daily TPO chart. Would like to exit on a the single-print at ~20600 which is quite greedy but given the current rate hike situation why not, big hands are starting to cry about it… What’s making a little uncomfortable is compression on ltf, could get stopped out really fast but I’m getting some sort of confluence from a potential QM pattern a little lower.

06.10.2022

I want an SFP to take place above the current double-top/flat-tops · don’t have a clear idea of where I’m invalidated, I’ll market enter if I get order-flow confluence and set stops on a the SFP Hi for example. Take profit would be set right above s-p at ~19700.

Stille a buyer at ~19300 even though mid 20keks s-ps wouldn’t be where I exit anymore.

09.10.2022

Bought 19200–19300 as I said I would above, I arranged my setup making it a 3R trade instead of a 0.8R trade. Could’ve nailed the exit but I prefered playing it conservatively because yDay nPoC was scaring me a little.

The only bias I have right now is SFP of the downward compression Hi leading us lower, if not a new local low. I might get to enter the idea if I get confluence and if I’m on my computer tomorrow when the level gets reached which is highly unlikely but let’s see.

18.10.2022

Was looking at ETH the other day because it was showing a nicer cluster trade setup than BTC and it did actually play out.

An interesting thing I should acknowledge is that the level where I wanted to do business at (aka. 14.10 VP nPoC) was clean but the actual execution wasn’t the right one. What properly illustrates that is the time limit (>24 hours in the trade) that wasn’t respected on the initial idea but also how offside I was at one point (pretty much -0.75R). With some size involved I could’ve easily puked my position at the highs especially if weren’t getting any signs of orderflow confluence.

That’s why I think it’s worth mentioning that a good way of playing the level here was to wait out patiently, while outlining the level on ATAS of course. That second pullback into the flat part of the QM is when I should’ve been looking at some orderflow confluence to enter. In this case first tp would’ve been the flat part of the QM and then the poor low for a slightly more aggressive approach.