After reaching its new all-time high (ATH) above $124K, Bitcoin (BTC) is going through a corrective phase. The last weekly candle closed at $117,590 after the ATH, and at the moment the price is below $113K.
On the daily chart, there were already signs of exhaustion, showing that the price was heavily overbought. When it hit the new ATH, the price moved above the upper Bollinger Band, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was near 70, just like in the last ATH when the indicator was above that level.
On the weekly chart, we had two candle closes with upper wicks, meaning the price was rejected for the second time at the same price region — a move that many are considering a double top.
Another highly reliable indicator is the 90-day lagged Global Liquidity Index (GLI). The GLI measures how much cash reserves central banks around the world have available for liquidity injections into the economy. Many economists have found a correlation between global liquidity inflows/outflows and BTC with about a 90-day delay, which is why we use it.
According to the GLI, BTC continues to follow liquidity: rising, consolidating, and forming a new top before undergoing a stronger correction. Based on this indicator, the expectation is that BTC will continue its corrective phase, find a new bottom, bounce slightly, and then consolidate for a while.
The green line is a projection for the top of the current cycle as mentioned in this post.
Historically, BTC does not perform well in August and September, as shown below and in the asset’s price chart. The usual pattern is for BTC to enter a corrective phase from mid-August until the end of September. History may not always repeat itself, but so far the pattern is holding.
Since the beginning of this cycle in 2022, BTC has typically gone through a 20%–30% correction after setting a new ATH. This would place the correction target in the $87K–$99K range.
On-chain data shows that recent trading activity created strong interest zones where price is likely to be defended. These are regions where large investors positioned themselves and will not want to see the price fall below their average entry points.
From the chart above, it’s clear that the first strong area of trading interest relative to the current price (~$113K) is around $107.5K, which is also confirmed by the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) indicator.
My technical charting shows support around $111K, which was a stopping point during the last correction. However, there is not enough significant volume in this area to support price consolidation. Considering the possible double top, the historical 20%–30% correction pattern, and stronger institutional interest zones below, I don’t believe this level will stop the current move.
Alongside the Age Bands Realized Price Distribution, another key on-chain dataset is the Liquidity Map, which shows liquidation zones for traders using 3x, 5x, and 10x leverage. It highlights areas where both long and short positions are at risk of liquidation. According to this chart, the next major liquidity zones below the current price are at $107K, $98K, and $88.3K — aligning with previous data.
During market cycles, another frequently tested support/resistance level is the Bull Market Support Band, which is currently between $103,179 and $104,888 — very close to the $107K zone already analyzed. If BTC tests this region, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a wick down into the lower end of the band before bouncing back up, which would be a strong signal of correction ending.
As already discussed in this, based on the law of diminishing returns, we could speculate that this correction may not follow the same percentage declines as previous cycles. Supporting this view, the growing ETF inflows, large-scale institutional money entering the market, and corporate treasuries adopting BTC all help reduce downside pressure.
Following the success of MicroStrategy’s treasury model, other companies and even governments have started diversifying reserves into BTC. Beyond Bitcoin, companies are also recognizing value in holding Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) as reserve assets.
This movement effectively locks up liquidity in these assets. Despite short-term volatility, a significant portion of supply won’t be sold suddenly, making declines more gradual and less severe since fewer tokens are available to trade compared to past cycles.
All this data leads me to believe the correction will likely extend to the $107K zone, and in the worst-case scenario, down to around $88K. I hope I’m wrong and the market resumes its uptrend sooner, but if prices fall, I’ll be buying — applying DCA, accumulating, and positioning for higher profits when new highs are set.
If prices don’t fall as expected, I’ll keep buying at current levels and still benefit from new highs. If the market consolidates over the next month, I’ll profit from yield pools and other crypto income strategies.
In the market, we always need to be prepared for every possible scenario.
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