理解了比特币的一切价值来源是囤币，我们就应该自豪，因为我们自己 就是比特币一切价值的来源，我们赋予了比特币价值，我们都是中本聪。 而且，一旦开始囤币，很多长期困扰你的疑问就有了答案。 比如：既然囤币是比特币一切价值的来源，那么作为一个长期囤币者， 你最关心的问题是什么？ 你一定最关心去中心化和安全性，去中心化保证比特币不被增发，不被 冻结，安全性保证比特币不被破解。而主链交易是否够快，是否便宜， 你其实是不太在乎的，毕竟你一年也转不了几次帐。这就是莱特币、狗 狗币、XXX 币、等等，永远无法超越比特币的根本原因。
我们也很容易理解，为什么每次产量减半，比特币价格必涨。 一般情况下，如果没有人炒来炒去，比特币的价格应该是囤币和矿工之 间的平衡。例如：现在每天产出 1800 个比特币，那么每天囤币者需要 1000 万美元的投入，才能维持比特币 6000 美元的价格。1000 万美元 实际上非常少，如果全球 100 万囤币者，每人每天只需要投入 10 美元。
这就要从比特币的奇葩供求关系说起了。 首先，比特币的供给是完全固定的。任何一个实体商品，都是价格越高， 供给越大。这很好理解，商品价格涨，利润空间变大，促使更多的人投 入生产，于是就有了更多的产出，增大的供给会遏制商品的暴涨。黄金 就是这样，价格涨导致供应增加。经济学上有个名词描述它，叫作供给 的价格弹性，指的是由价格变化引起的商品供给的变化。比特币的供给 的价格弹性是零，无论价格怎么涨，供给始终不变，这非常变态。 其次，比特币的需求更变态。任何一个实体商品，都是价格越高，需求越小。这也很好理解，商品价格升高会逼迫人们寻找替代商品。举个例 子，你每天都吃肉，如果肉价涨了，你可能就会改变习惯，减少吃肉， 隔天吃一次鱼，所以，你总体上对肉的需求就降低了。这个叫需求的价 格弹性，比特币的需求的价格弹性居然是负的，也就是说币价越高，需 求越旺盛。因为盘子越大，越适合储值。
再加上每一次产量减半，人们都预期比特币会暴涨，于是炒币大军疯狂 涌入，推波助澜。 总而言之，每一次减半都打破了供需平衡，而一旦平衡打破，供给不变， 需求反而增加，再加上炒币大军涌入，怎么可能不暴涨？ 那么反过来也是一样的。如果泡沫形成，比特币价格太高，矿工的抛压 超过了囤币的投入，币价就会下跌。一旦价格下跌趋势形成，需求就会 开始减少，因为盘子越小，越不适合储值。从而造成，比特币价格的进 一步下跌。
To understand that all the value of Bitcoin comes from hoarding, we should be proud that we ourselves are the source of all the value of Bitcoin, we give it value, we are all Satoshi Nakamoto. And once you start hoarding, you'll have the answer to a lot of questions you've long had. For example: Since hoarding is the source of all of bitcoin's value, what are your biggest concerns as a long-term hoarder? You must be most concerned about decentralization and security. Decentralization ensures that bitcoin can't be issued, frozen, and security ensures that bitcoin can't be cracked. And whether the main chain transaction is fast enough, whether cheap, you actually do not care too much, after all, you can not transfer a few accounts a year. This is the fundamental reason why Litecoin, Dogecoin, XXX coin, etc., can never surpass bitcoin.
It's also easy to understand why bitcoin prices rise every time production halves. Normally, if there is no speculation, the price of Bitcoin should be a balance between hoarder and miner. For example, if 1,800 bitcoins are produced every day, it would take $10 million a day for a hoarder to maintain a bitcoin price of $6,000. Ten million dollars is actually very small. If there were a million hoarders in the world, each person would only need to invest 10 dollars a day.
That starts with bitcoin's bizarre supply and demand. First, the supply of bitcoin is completely fixed. For any physical commodity, the higher the price, the greater the supply. It makes sense. When the price of a commodity goes up, the profit margin goes up, and more people are put into production, so there's more output, and more supply is going to stop the boom. This is the case with gold, where rising prices lead to increased supply. There's a term in economics that describes it, and it's called price elasticity of supply, which is the change in the supply of goods caused by a change in price. The price elasticity of the supply of bitcoin is zero. No matter how the price goes up, the supply stays the same, which is very abnormal. Second, demand for bitcoin is more twisted. For any physical good, the higher the price, the lower the demand. It makes sense that rising commodity prices would force people to look for alternatives. For example, if you eat meat every day, if the price of meat goes up, you might change your habits, eat less meat, and eat fish every other day, so your overall need for meat goes down. This is called the price elasticity of demand, and the price elasticity of demand for Bitcoin is actually negative, that is to say, the higher the price of bitcoin is, the stronger the demand is. Because the bigger the plate, the better for storing value.
And every time production halves, people expect bitcoin to explode, fueling a frenzy of speculation. To sum up, each halving breaks the balance of supply and demand, and once the balance is broken, the supply stays the same, but the demand increases, coupled with the influx of speculative army, how can it not soar? So the reverse is also true. If a bubble forms and the price of bitcoin becomes too high, and miners sell more money than they spend on hoarding, the price will fall. Once a downward trend takes hold, demand starts to decline because the smaller the plate, the less suitable it is to store value. As a result, the price of Bitcoin fell further.