Russia and Ukraine have a long history together however throughout the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, the former has always been dominated by the latter. Russian and Ukrainian families have had a long history of kinship, even if the Soviets pushed it a step further by enforcing brotherhood codes between them. Though a large majority of Ukraine’s people support EU integration, some Russian-speaking Ukrainians retain affection for the Kremlin. Almost everyone speaks and understands Russian, including those whose first language is Ukrainian. Putin emphasised his favoured belief that Russians and Ukrainians are one people while announcing the invasion.
It’s a key component of his assertion, mocked by Ukraine, that Ukraine isn’t a real country. In an improvised version of history, he said that it was “completely created” by Soviet planners out of Russian imperial soil. Putin’s allegation is that Ukraine is a fictitious country which misses important aspects of a country’s identity. In any event, linguistic and ethnic divisions have long persisted in Ukraine, notably between the primarily Russian-speaking people in the east and the Ukrainian-speaking districts of the west near the borders with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.
The ambition for an exclusive sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus is ostensibly motivated by Russian security concerns. NATO expansion to the east has been depicted by the Kremlin as the original sin of post-Soviet international relations with the West, which must now be corrected. Regardless of facts, different interpretations, or the security concerns of equally sovereign nations, Moscow says that it will use military force to preserve its security interests if such guarantees are not provided.
For years, Russia has criticised political ultranationalism in Ukraine. To be sure, tensions exist in Ukraine, and neo-Nazi paramilitary members have fought alongside the troops. However, Russia exaggerates the presence, citing the history of Ukrainian nationalists working with Germany during World War II in an attempt to establish an independent state. Many interpreted Putin’s Nazi remark as a threat to destabilise Ukraine’s government which is led by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a Jew who denies allegations that his government includes neo-Nazis.
Putin and his allies began accusing the Ukrainian government of “genocide” against Russian speakers in the Donbas breakaway regions, a baseless charge that Ukraine, as well as the United State Government and EU states have strongly denied. In reality, fighting between rebels and the Ukrainian military killed an estimated 14,000 people, mainly in the year after the Crimean crisis. Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly accused each other of violating the Minsk agreements, which were mediated by Germany and France and aimed to cease the fighting and secure a political settlement. Fulfilling Minsk would have given decentralised control to Russian-speaking breakaway provinces, perhaps providing the Kremlin veto power over national policy shifts like joining the EU or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Putin effectively scuttled Minsk days before the assault by recognising the separatists self-styled republics. On February 24, he justified the invasion by declaring a goal of “demilitarisation,” implying that Ukraine’s military capability would be dismantled, rendering it unable to defend itself and hence ineligible to join NATO. Another goal, he stated, was the “denazification” of the country.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin engineered the current critical phase of the Ukrainian issue. Russian troops, artillery, armoured vehicles, tanks, and other equipment surround Ukraine, threatening a major military confrontation. They are stationed along the Russian border with Ukraine, in the annexed Crimean territory, and in Belarus.
It’s difficult to pinpoint a precise reason for Russia’s decision in 2021 to transfer tens of thousands of troops and their armaments close to Ukraine or the December 2021 escalation of events. Since the early 2000s, the Kremlin’s approach toward Ukraine has been tough. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, they occupied Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and started the continuing war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region which has claimed the lives of thousands of Ukrainians. Nonetheless, the timing appears to be influenced more by Vladimir Putin’s political preferences, his assessments of events and reactions in Ukraine, Europe, and the United States than by events in the contested Donbas region.
Moscow and Putin, for a number of reasons, are at play. To begin with, enormous shifts have occurred in Eurasia during the past two years, with trends appearing to have reached a tipping point. Moscow has effectively reasserted itself as the major political force and security provider in the region, thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and 22 years after Vladimir Putin came to power. Only Ukraine and the three Baltic states, which joined NATO and the European Union in 2004, have managed to escape Moscow’s grasp. Following their forcible reincorporation into the Soviet Union during World War II, the United States never recognised the Baltic states as part of the USSR. For Moscow and Vladimir Putin, pushing Kyiv and its leadership back into Russia’s orbit is unfinished work in this perspective. In what Russia views to be its “protected zone of interests,” Ukraine is the regional outlier. Opposing Russia, Ukraine continues to pursue NATO membership, tight links with Europe, its own economic, political, and foreign policy agenda as well as building up its military forces. By leveraging economic and military links or exploiting a territorial conflict, Russia has pushed other former Soviet governments into stronger political and security ties with Moscow or into a neutral, marginal international standing.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in November 2021 about the dangers. According to allegations from the British government and intelligence agencies, Moscow has been plotting to replace Ukrainian President Zelensky with a pro-Kremlin puppet administration during the present crisis.
These changes in Eurasia have strengthened Russia. In dealing with the disturbances, the United States had no meaningful part. It was noticeable by its absence. The United States appears severely weakened in Russia’s eyes, both at home and internationally.America’s political shift and President Biden’s inability to carry out his domestic agenda was not satisfactory for many leaders worldwide. The US and NATO urged a politically and economically battered Russia to remove its armed forces from Eastern Europe in the 1990s. Putin sees America’s plight as a once-in-a-lifetime chance. If the US is indeed in a condition of breakdown at home and retreat abroad as the Kremlin claims, Russia may be able to reverse the last 30 years of American security supremacy in Europe, as well as constrain Ukraine’s independence.