saw a tweet from Qiao Wang or some fund manager showing the first leg of the SHIB pump

i figured that this was just a whale market manipulation play, especially after seeing another tweet showing how much SHIB was moving on-chain

on more thought, i reasoned that because pretty much every major L1 had been moving up recently, the market sentiment might be getting meme-level bullish

• NFTs, of course, were still exploding into insane multiples of their initial prices

i was skeptical of how far this pump would go, especially because i hadn’t seen much retail activity recently

but because of the general market sentiment, i figured this would become like a hot potato Keynesian beauty contest, where people buy dog coins to try dumping on (1) reflexive pumps from traders with the same idea and (2) retail investors FOMO buying

partly due to my liquidity deployment situation, i decided to position for this possibility by entering DOGE with a 1% portfolio allocation

entered at 2PM EST with a market buy (i was impatient, possibly because DOGE had already showed signs of strength) at 0.229

sold at 0.24 at 11:47PM EST

• i’d been periodically looking at DOGE versus SHIB (and also L1 majors) and noted that DOGE was a laggard relative to the overall market strength

• this made me skeptical that it would rip up any further

• in the back of my mind, the information i had for DOGE was some vague blog post about how DOGE is largely concentrated on just a few wallets, and thus i was wary of the price’s ability to meaningfully rip due to this idea i had of there being a natural seller

i’m looking for a solution to create, at scale, accurate mental notes concerning (1) every potential coin’s holder distributions, (2) tokenomics of buying/selling pressure such as staking or lockups or inflows, and (3) the behavior of different wallet sizes during different market regimes

• in my mind, this is similar to having a poker player’s hand history before fighting them for pots

i did a good job of sizing properly with a small percentage of my portfolio given my level of conviction and amount of due diligence

i did a good job of actionably reasoning with my theoretical knowledge base, and of looking for disconfirming evidence for my trade rather than trying to justify a losing position

i did a good job of contextualizing events and market moves in what recently has been happening in the metagame of crypto trading