All assertions are summarized from the Theses for 2022, Recommend to read the origin. It’s the best gate to the crypto world.
Thanks to the Ryan Selkis and Messari team bring insightful views.
Crypto leads different sectors with different value drivers.
Crypto has outstanding returns as "securities".
More crypto funds will be set up and more investment from traditional funds.
Zero-knowledge is the future for scaling and privacy.
The inevitable trend is to replace web2.0 monopolies, but it needs Talent + Capital + Timing, we will have the crypto world's FAANG.
Everyone expects the crash but this time may be more moderate, maybe a long winter.
The meme will crash without an institution buy wall.
Data ownership will be monetized, but there is a trade-off between privacy and profit.
Decentralized storage: on-demand storage & long-term storage solution.
A decentralized hardware network is necessary to resist censorship. Dapp should solve centralizations, like front-end, team control, regulation.
Always long, the 1st ever.
Money of crypto world, become other chain's reserve, like WBTC.
Overall market cap of top L1 protocols surpasses Bitcoin is possible, just like FAANG > M1. Bitcoin is the fiat currenc1y, other protocols are top companies.
CCP will undo the mining ban at mid-year of 2022 (P = 70%).
Future ETFs are terribly costly, but SEC under Gary Gensler won't approve spot ETFs in short term.
Economic impact > Environmental impact.
Green mining using green energy innovation.
More risk when block rewards are down, network security is threatened.
Generally, the market cap of Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin is not possible. There are 20% when Ethereum is appreciated its world computer value.
The world computer is Ethereum or other killers, Ethereum's position is more likely to be replaced.
L1 platforms will be multi-chain.
L2 is the near solution, optimistic rollup in the short term, ZK-rollup in the mid and long term.
EVM and WASM contract platforms will be duopolies, like most tech platforms in history.
Time is essential to get the market share for all scaling solutions.
Cases
Solana: whether it can scale to 10,000,000 Users.
Polkadot: steady and secure.
Terra: successful partnership with South Korean payment app.
Multi-chain Future: users won't know which blockchain the Dapp is on.
Betting on fat application: multi-chain Dapp is the future, deploy faster and captures more users
Uni only on Ethereum
Sushi on any EVM-compatible chain
Avae, Curve deploy target EVM
Coumpoud launch standalone chain to connect.
Cross-Chain will likely be standardized around a small number of trusted, widely integrated protocols.
Online, Token, Coded Mechanism, can make up any social organization.
DAOs will replace companies in the long term, it's the future career to pool global talent.
Registered as LLC under regulation gradually.
Venture DAO gonna hold the largest AUM in crypto like mutual funds.
Need fully transparent and information disclosure.
Need voter incentives to solve voting participation, collusion, and apathy.
Need to solve other challenges/issues in companies.
Composition
Wallets: The entrance.
Marketing: "Learn to earn" attracts new users, win-win, maybe BD company do this.
HR: Vibrant contributor marketplace
Finance & Ops: Most DAOs control treasury, which only has single assets. Multi assets in the future.
Management: Project reporting and community relations.
Bank will be replaced in the long term.
Decentralized derivatives will dominate the spot in volumes, like in CeFi.
ETFs in DeFi are promising.
DeFi insurance and security research are urgently needed.
Enhancers, extenders, etc, just like CDS, CDO, accumulates the risk not innovation in operating model
Stablecoin
Tether: People have to trust Tether, the eurodollar. Because it has worked so far. Most probably it will be taken over by the US government, USDT become a reserve of other stablecoins.
Terra: It has surpassed DAI and become the most widely integrated decentralized stablecoin. Using single collateral of LUNA + The lender of last resort, building its own ecosystem on Terra and aggressively expanding multi-chain.
Algorithmic stablecoin: Using fractional reserve or Protocol controlled value. It's easy to die without confidence in contractions, especially in the early stage with a low market cap.
Regulated stablecoin: Facing direct competition with CBDC/DCEP.
Non-pegged stablecoin: It will eliminate the dollar dependence, similar to the crypto central bank. But it's hard to build the world coin!
Bridging to the real world
CEX
Coinbase: Wallet, DAO, and NFT market attractive
Binance: too big to fall, may need government investor like GIC
FTX: incredible growing
Republic: next platform under the framework of U.S securities law.
Custody: It's the trend using custodial or semi-custodial (multi-sig) accounts for savers of retail investors.
Crypto payment: It will be popular for emerging-market. And there are other opportunities in different industries
NFT bubble will crash without liquidity but it is definitely the future.
Compared to FT, not even securities, are goods, out of SEC's regulation.
Ownership Model: Identity can't be stolen, even it's just a JPEG, to prevent fraud. PFPs are the image of a person in the virtual world, many NFTs might become an unsellable part of identity.
Content platform: Distribution -> Subscription -> Ownership, Fan token may be the catalyst.
Art: Digital art is 0.1% of physical art, just like bitcoin is 0.1% of the gold market in 2013.
SocialFi: Boost users hooked with token rewards, boost devs to build services. But Social Token Paradox is the problem.
GameFi: Top five gaming studios will enter the NFT war.
Infrastructure: The safest way is to invest in NFT infrastructure. Core infrastructure like Financialization to provide liquidity and collateral. e.g Opensea.
Bridge to real-world: Composable attributes and fractional ownership in the real world, e.g. real-world credentials and identifiers under a naming system
The USA has the best natural home to brace crypto, compliance issues. Regtech will be helpful, be another opportunity.
Political football of Republicans, more sympathetic and reasonable.
Probably a new regulator, like Web 3 Council. It's dedicated to regulating the crypto, with a new framework to promote interoperability and competition, protect against fraud and manipulation.
Keep an eye on the policy team and association's relationship with the government.
Regulatory scope
Stablecoin: Monetary sovereignty needs it to build another Bretton Woods system. The best solution is to replace USD with USD-pegged stablecoin, control the world reserve. It needs audit reserves and solvency under a fully collateralized basis of DeFi, maintain legitimate regulated stablecoins like USDC and Paxos at the same time.
Hosted Services: Banking integration causes centralization. Better to grant charters to fully reserved crypto banks, rather than bring crypto to TradFi Bank.
AML & KYC: Actually, illicit activity comprises just 0.34% of crypto transactions, lower than TradFi Banks. Because it's too hot to handle or launder crypto, more traceable than cash. KYC is the trend. Let white hackers make more than black hackers.
Tax: Reliable tax reporting software integrated into Exchange and Wallet.
Incorporated DAOs: More states will follow Wyoming to brace DAOs in the future.
Privacy: Comprised to "National Security", "tax".