In late August, Instinct, an AI agent startup, raised at a $2.5 billion valuation. A month later it raised $1 billion at $10 billion. Same company, four times the valuation.
That was Q3. On Crunchbase's count, venture funding was up 69% on a year earlier in July and up 122% in August. PitchBook puts Q3 exit value at $185.2 billion, higher than any quarter of the past four years except Q1 and Q2 of this year, and ranks SpaceX's $60 billion stock deal for Cursor as the second-largest M&A exit of a VC-backed company ever. Q3 ran hot. Q4 is when it closes.
Our biggest news: we open Q4 on stage. Arthur and Erlisa are at TOKEN2049 Singapore on Wednesday 7 October, 11:30am to 12pm, for a fireside chat: How the Best Founders Navigate the Hard Parts.
It is on the new Startup Stage, a small open stage on the L4 conference floor inside the Startup Village, with some seats and room to gather around. Closer to a conversation than a keynote.
Thirty minutes on the parts that never make the deck: how funds and syndicates decide, what comes first when something breaks, and whether to go with gut or plan. If you are at TOKEN2049, come and say hi afterwards.
More rounds, more vehicles. For syndicates and funds that want to run their own at scale, we are building Opp, the self-serve version of GCRx. It will be ready soon, and the waitlist is open. GCRx itself stays bespoke.
The IPO everyone is watching now has numbers. Anthropic's draft prospectus, seen by Reuters, shows 2025 revenue of nearly $4.6 billion and an operating loss of more than $8 billion. This year, revenue was $4.73 billion in Q1 and $11.5 billion in Q2, and it says it will be profitable on an operating basis for a second straight quarter.
The headline is the bill: $518 billion of compute and infrastructure commitments over about a decade, roughly 80% of it non-cancelable. That is about eight years of revenue at its July run-rate.
Reuters says the listing, now likely after the 3 November midterms, could value Anthropic at more than $2 trillion. PitchBook's latest research says the leak supports well above $1 trillion, but not $2 trillion yet.
For years, getting into Anthropic took an invitation to a private round. Once it lists, it takes a brokerage account.
Have a round closing in Q4? The calculator gives an all-in fee estimate in about twenty seconds. Or talk it through with us, ideally before the allocation is confirmed, not after.
Arthur and Erlisa are there all week, with TOKEN2049 itself on 7 and 8 October at Marina Bay Sands. Reply and tell us what you are trying to close this quarter, and we will find a slot.
Invest together.
Best,
Arthur and the GCRx Team