What if I told you BTC is simply ranging through a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern, that is far more likely (in my opinion) to meet a bearish continuation target of sub $30K than it is to break out as a reversal trend and retest ATHs.
Bears remain at the wheel until $49K is broken with volume and this bearish symmetrical triangle pattern is invalidated. As price curls up for an impulse move, it’s likely that the triangle will act as resistance and $45K will be a point of short=term price reversal, before another test of support between $38500 — $40000.
Statistics of bearish symmetrical triangle
“If in doubt zoom out” remains a timeless solution to over-hyped reactions to low time frame price action. This breakout lacks the volume, and thus the bullish conviction, to have me see this as anything more than the release of pressure after a build up of sell orders.
In this case, I meet the hopium being spread in response to this latest pump above $40K with cynicism and curiosity; particularly given the geo-political and global economic factors suppressing a genuine bull run for any risk-on asset.
My spot bags would love for this to be wrong, but there is a greater probability that this bearish continuation patterns plays out against the back drop of broader negative market sentiment, and we see a $30K Bitcoin, before we see a $69K Bitcoin again.
Not Financial Advice — This information is published as my personal trading diary, for the sole purpose of informing my personal trading decisions.