Information photos of “Moscow” missile cruiser

Russian Defense Ministry said on the 14th that the cruiser Moscow, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, caught fire and caused an explosion of ammunition on board. The ship was seriously damaged, lost stability in the process of being towed back to port and sank in the wind and waves. Ukrainian local government officials sent a document on social media on the 13th, saying that Ukrainian border defense forces hit the cruiser “Moscow” with cruise missiles on the same day.

Was the Russian Navy’s main warship on fire or was it seriously damaged by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles, as claimed by the Ukrainian side? What problems did the sinking of the flagship expose the Russian army? What impact will it have on the Russian Ukrainian war situation?

Was it hit by a missile or a fire or explosion

The Russian military said that the fire of the cruiser “Moscow” led to the explosion of the ammunition depot, which is different from the Ukrainian side.

Ukrainian Odessa governor marchenko said in a social media message on the 13th that the Ukrainian border defense forces stationed on Snake Island hit the cruiser Moscow in the nearby waters with a “Neptune” cruise missile on the same day.

“Neptune” is a surface to ship subsonic missile developed by Ukraine on the basis of the Soviet Union’s “Uranus” ship to ship missile. The warhead weighs 150 kg, has a range of 280 km, and has a minimum sea skimming altitude of about 3 meters. It has a certain penetration capability. According to Uzbekistan, this is the first time Neptune has been used in actual combat.

U.S. Defense Department spokesman Kirby said that the Moscow was located about 110 kilometers away from the Odessa port when the explosion occurred.

Yang Zhen, deputy director of the Northeast Asia Research Center of the Shanghai Academy of political science and law and a military expert, believes that there are some doubts in Ukraine’s statement: first, it is claimed that local administrative officials rather than the military sank the cruiser by the missile; Second, the Ukrainian army has not issued a credible war report or evidence of “Neptune” missile launch; Third, the “Neptune” launch vehicle has a large body. There are also questions about how to maneuver to the launch position without being found and destroyed by the Russian army.

Yang Zhen said that it cannot be ruled out that the sinking of the “Moscow” was caused by its own fire and explosion. Due to various factors, it is not impossible for this situation to happen in wartime.

What problems did the sinking of the capital ship expose the Russian army

“Moscow” is the first ship of the Soviet Navy’s “glory” class missile cruiser, with a displacement of 12500 tons. It is equipped with 16 “basalt” heavy anti-ship missiles and air defense and anti submarine weapons. It was built in 1976 and commissioned in 1983. It was named “glory” and renamed “Moscow” in 2000.

According to Yang Zhen, the “glory” class is the product of Soviet Navy marshal Gorshkov’s “theory of national maritime power”. Its main combat mission is to cover the Soviet ballistic missile nuclear submarine on the high seas and oceans, conduct anti-ship operations and cut off the Atlantic traffic between the United States and Europe. It belongs to ocean going combat ships. It has the advantages of strong firepower and cruise ability. It is a typical naval main battle platform in the era of mechanized war.

However, as the form of war technology has changed from mechanization to informatization, the “glory” level has lagged behind the times. In the high-intensity information sea battlefield, its shortcomings of incomplete air defense capability, low degree of informatization and low degree of automation are prominent, and its weak stealth capability is also its weakness.

According to Yang Zhen’s analysis, if the missile hits, it shows that the “Moscow” lacks the ability to defend low, slow and small targets, and the ability of marine situational awareness is weak; If it is a fire, it shows that its damage control ability to ensure the vitality of ships is not strong. Judging from the sinking incident, there are defects in the preparation of damaged materials and emergency plans of the Russian army.

Will the sinking of the flagship affect the war situation

The Ukrainian army is unlikely to be able to reverse the progress of the Russian Ukrainian army’s sinking on the battlefield, but the Ukrainian army’s morale is unlikely to be reversed to a certain extent. The Russian army is about to occupy Mariupol, a strategic town in the Azov Sea. The Pentagon estimates that the Russian navy has dozens of ships in the Black Sea and the sea of Azov, and Ukraine is difficult to reverse Russia’s maritime advantage.

Yang Zhen believes that the “Moscow” is the main warship of the Russian army against NATO ships in the Black Sea. Its sinking means that NATO’s sea and air superiority over Russia is more obvious, and the Black Sea Fleet further degenerates to the “air submarine fast” fleet, that is, it can only rely on aviation, submarines and small ships with strong mobility to carry out coastal defense operations.

Yang Zhen predicted that next, the Russian army will increase its offensive against the Ukrainian army in Donbas, strengthen fire coverage, and annihilate as many effective forces of the Ukrainian army as possible, so as to lock in the trend of the war.

Wen bingtu / Xinhua News Agency