More important than the trend is the change in the trend
Understand the past, see the present, and see the future.
Entrepreneurship can't be done recklessly, and you have to wait for the "big trend".
Even science, not to mention entrepreneurship: Planck said that the glory in science is due to the first person to convince the world, not the first person to think of it.
It is said that Sequoia's investment principle is Bet on the racetrack, not the jockey. The literal translation is "betting on the track, not on the players", but I prefer Sun Tzu's saying "seek for power, don't blame others".
"No one is forever young, but someone is always young." In business, it can be interpreted as whether it is a business of a generation or a business of a certain age group, it is best to think clearly.
Whether you can withstand the trough is a watershed for consumer goods brands.
Facts have once again proved that in the field of fast-moving consumer goods, there is no brand loyalty that cannot be destroyed by a price cut of 3 cents.
When I was young, I believed in some sayings such as "excellent people stand up at critical moments, defy all opinions, and turn the tide." Later, after learning a little more about history, I turned to believe that when a real historical event comes, it will be People who are recorded in history don't need to grab it at all. It is more likely that they just didn't hide, or, didn't hide...
More important than trends are changes in trends.
1. 2. Churchill once said, "You can see the farther past before you can see the farther future"; standing in 2019 trying to understand the future, I think looking at the past 40 years, the past 70 years or even the past 100 years is no longer enough. See the past 180 years and beyond... 3. Business is ultimately won by logic. It's just that in some industries, it's enough to directly show this cold logic, while in some industries, logic must be packaged into feelings. 4. Musk is well versed in vaporware (fantasy), and he deserves to be a person who debuted in the 1990s. 5. Perhaps in the near future, the richest man in the world is neither Gates nor Bezos, nor the founder of any technology company, but Bernard Arnault, the owner of LV, who entered the luxury goods industry in 1984. Then buy and buy luxury brands all the way, and encourage consumers all over the world (especially East Asia) to keep buying and buying luxury goods... (Published in August 2019, Arnault became the world's richest man 5 months later) 6. The most first-class entrepreneurial path is destined to be unprecedented.
