讲话的三个要点：
通货膨胀太高，现在讨论通胀会持续下降到2%还为时过早，把通胀控制到2%的目标是我们责任。
今年上半年出现的衰退预期现在开始消退，强劲的劳动力市场可以让联储专注于控制通胀，支持在本月20-21号的FOMC会议上再次加息75bps来限制总需求。
前瞻指引变得用处不大，未来的加息幅度和加息的终点取决于后面的经济数据。
根据自上次FOMC会议以来我们看到的经济数据，我相信下次议息会议很可能加息75bps，并且由于通胀回落需要时间，预计继续持续货币紧缩，这轮货币紧缩政策利率究竟会多高，究竟会持续多久，一切取决于未来的经济数据。
数据方面，消费数据依然继续扩张，尽管由于汽油和汽车价格下降（对于控制通胀来说这是好消息）拖累了7月名义零售额，除去这些，零售额7月增长0.7%，这显示可选消费稳固增长。总体工业产出在7月增长了0.6%。制造业领先指标方面，各区调查数据显示，制造业新订单指数今年以来有所疲弱，但还未对制造业形成实质性的拖累，同时非制造业ISM报告显示非制造业继续保持强劲增长。 但是，有迹象显示经济活动正在放缓（这是美联储现在希望看到的），高利率正在对房地产市场产生作用。
往前看，我的注意力主要集中在影响通胀的几个因素上。房租，明年早些时候，可能不再对通胀造成大的向上压力。商品通胀方面，由于供给的改善、需求的减弱，将持续下降。服务业通胀方面，机票和旅游相关服务价格上个月有所下降，但不确定未来会怎么走。
Looking ahead, I will be focusing on a number of factors that will influence inflation. On housing services—rent and the so-called owners' equivalent rent —I expect to see sizable increases in this component of inflation for a while as the recent rise in new rentals makes its way into aggregate price measures.2 In a speech in March, I noted that, based on various measures of asking rents, some analysts were predicting that the rate of rent inflation in the consumer price index could double in 2022, and so far it is on pace to more than double.3 Owners-equivalent rent is similarly on pace to nearly double this year.4 Sometime early next year, though, I expect to see the upward pressure on inflation from these forces to ease as future increases in new or renewed leases moderate and the full effects of monetary policy tightening make their way to housing services prices. Beyond housing, I expect goods price inflation to continue to moderate as monetary policy now and going forward slows the pace of increase in aggregate demand, supply problems ease, and supply and demand come into better balance. There is some evidence that goods supply production and delivery problems tied to the pandemic are improving, with supplier delivery times and reports of items in short supply continuing to drop. In terms of service price inflation, we saw a step-down in airfares and other travel-related services last month, but I am uncertain about how these services, as well as food services, and nonmarket services prices will evolve going forward.
名义薪资增速非常快，我正密切关注会不会形成薪资价格螺旋。另一个我关注的点是长期通胀预期，短期的通胀预期上升了很多，但长期通胀预期还稳定在比较低的位置，说明人们对联储控制通胀是有信心的。
总结，我现在还没看到令人信服的证据表明通胀会持续地下降到2%的目标水平，现在犯错的成本很高，除非看到核心通胀持续趋势性的放缓，我将继续支持进一步的紧缩货币政策。
To sum up, while I welcome promising news about inflation, I don't yet see convincing evidence that it is moving meaningfully and persistently down along a trajectory to reach our 2 percent target. I keep in mind that a year ago we saw similarly promising evidence of inflation moderating for several months before it jumped up to a high and then very high level. Those earlier inflation readings probably delayed our pivot to tightening monetary policy by a few months. The consequences of being fooled by a temporary softening in inflation could be even greater now if another misjudgment damages the Fed's credibility. So, until I see a meaningful and persistent moderation of the rise in core prices, I will support taking significant further steps to tighten monetary policy.
现在的短期利率已经在6月份预计的中性利率附近，但是通胀远高于2%的目标，所以政策利率还要进一步升高以限制总需求。
未来货币政策将依赖于经济数据，但这不意味着很快结束加息，预计至少要加息加到2023年早些时候。
This is not to suggest that I anticipate rate increases stopping very soon. I expect that getting inflation to fall meaningfully and persistently toward our 2 percent target will require increases in the target range for the federal funds rate until at least early next year. But don't ask me about the policy path because I truly don't know—it will depend on the data. Six months ago, I would not have thought that we would be where we are today, with inflation so far from our target, after significantly tightening policy with a series of large rate increases and by shrinking the balance sheet.
基准假设是政策利率的高点在4%附近。
There are a range of possibilities for how the economy will perform, however, and we can talk about the implications of that range. Say, for example, that inflation follows the path laid out in the June SEP, which has core PCE inflation falling to 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and then moving toward 2 percent over 2023 and 2024. In that case, I would support our policy rate peaking near 4 percent. But based on the experience of the past year and half, it would be foolish to express great confidence that this plausible path will come to pass. Instead, it is important to consider the range of possibilities and the appropriate policy responses. For example, if inflation does not moderate or rises further this year, then, in my view, the policy rate will probably need to move well above 4 percent. Alternatively, if inflation suddenly decelerates, then, in my view, the policy rate might peak at less than 4 percent.
原文链接：
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20220909a.htm