My outlook for 2022:
BTC will continue to run the show for the time being - its the top dog and is the ultimate store of value (immaculate conception, full decentralised, 13yrs old, secure etc etc). Maybe in the years to come - as crypto becomes a more developed market - it will take a backseat as more high utility projects and stablecoins become higher in market cap. But until we see more real-world adoption(which is always growing) - BTC leads the market.
Its the safest digital asset and has the most credibility when being sized up by trad. investors and managed funds etc. They're not going to be allocating 5-10% of their portfolio to DOGE or probably any other AltCoin until they are safer bets. (I'd argue ETH is on the radar of even the more conservative investors - but only time will tell).
The On-Chain analytics (I read other people’s analysis of On-chain stats, but you can see them all on Glassnode) show that this latest pullback was merely a large flush out of over leveraged traders. There was no doubt a lot of panic selling also. Combined with Omicron.
There are those that subscribe to a lengthening cycles theory, and I'm inclined to support this view, when looking at previous cycles each one has lengthened upon the last - why should this be different.
In which case the top may come as late as Q3or4 next year. It's important to realise that we could potentially crab sideways, be volatile asf - and not see any of the moon-action we're all most anxious for.
Could be 6months of boredom and drawn out pain, in which case you need to be prepared for that, so that you don't fall out of the game or sell at a loss because twitter calls for a bear market.
A LIL BIT OF BULLISH
Otherwise the On-chain stats show that Longterm holders and Whales were not fazed by this dip and were in fact treating it as a buying opportunity. Buy the Fear! Sell the greed!
There’s other stats that support the reasoning that we're still Bullish, things like inflows onto exchanges - didn't increase - meaning people weren't moving their BTC onto exchanges to sell.
But again, I'm half expecting moves at the beginning of '22 - but also I've seen this sentiment around a bit, meaning to really f*** everyone up, we could just grind sideways with some pumps, dumps, bleeds until mid next year...
Noone knows for sure. All we can do is have a plan.
That way when the market does what it does, you aren’t acting emotionally based on what you read that morning, or who you saw ranting on youtube.
Now with all that said!
The projects I'm most heavily invested in and have high conviction for over the next few years.
ETH*
ETH supply is heavily constrained, I think 10%ish is on exchanges. Most are locked up through staking (Proof of stake) or in Defi protocols. Expect big price moves when demand increases whilst supply is dwindling.
Currently gas prices suck and its gotten a lot of heat because of this. However, Eth has the most developers and the biggest ecosystem - eventually, everything will be interconnected though, so potentially this won't be as big a deal down the line.
LUNA & Stablecoin UST - The need for a decentralized stablecoin that is not beholden to being collateralized through USD is SOO important! The backbone of crypto is BTC and Stablecoins. At present there is a risk in regulation coming to USDT and USDC - hence I see huge demand for UST (and the other TerraLuna stables) in the coming years.
Luna price will rise exponentially in proportion to the amount of UST that is created/minted (Luna must be burned to mint UST - hence Luna supply decreases ->price go up).
(A smaller cap/Moonshot)
Kujira (KUJI) is a company that is developing a suite of products aimed at opening up Defi opportunities for average users.
Kuji Orca is a protocol that lets users 'bid' on liquidations, so when people inevitably get greedy ->borrow too much->the market dips->their assets get sold to cover the borrowed capital(liquidation)->You the 'bidder' get heavily discounted digital assets such as Luna. Sometimes 15-30% below the market price. Insane. Currently just on Terra Blockchain(LUNA), but their organising to release on other chains in the near future.
OCEAN
The data market is enormous. It’s also enormously valuable.
What has made Facebook, Google, and other 'free' social media platforms insanely rich over the last decade?
Our data. It has value.
Ocean intends to give users the ability to sell their data on an open marketplace, and hopefully streamline this process so that the user doesn't even have to think about it, but instead just gets paid for the data they *choose* to share.
They're the leader in the crypto Data space, I'm sure there are competitors so we'll see.
Otherwise, at the moment I'm just watching BTC and the overall Macro stories regarding the Fed and Inflation/Rates. We're expecting rate increases next year, which will impact the markets no doubt. Hopefully just slowing down though and not dropping off a cliff.
Not Financial advice!
Like seriously, take everything with a grain of salt and make your own damn decisions. Don't act on anything you read from random people on the internet. Cmon :)