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Xia Junjie Renqiao assets
In April, the panic of the market increased unabated, and the mode of sharp decline and resistance continued, of which Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 3.2%; CSI 300 fell 4.9%; China Securities 500 fell 11%; Gem fell 12.8%; The continuous slump has undoubtedly shrouded the market in a strong bear market atmosphere. However, we have also noticed two positive changes. First, the undervalued sector represented by 50 shows signs of stopping the decline, and the decline is gradually narrowing; Secondly, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and state-owned enterprise index have not reached a new low. These two positive changes essentially illustrate the same problem, that is, the market pricing system is still effective, and cheap is still the last word.
Many people say that the situation of “internal and external troubles” has caused the current market dilemma and is the root of market pessimism. Frankly speaking, the US interest rate hike, the Russian Ukrainian war and the domestic epidemic are more than that. All the problems are intertwined. The situation is indeed complex, but what are these problems in the long river of history? China has experienced many more difficult and critical moments in history than now, and will eventually pass and get better. We always say that stock investors must be optimistic. This optimism is not a blind impulse, nor an excuse for being careless and undisciplined. It is that we should retain our vision and belief in the future whenever and wherever. The root of this belief is our love and trust in this country and people. Investment industry exists precisely because of “trust”.
Back to the specific issues, these difficulties mentioned above are likely to have major turnaround, and may not be far away. On the issue of US interest rate hike, many people say that the Fed’s attitude is too hawkish recently, and the interest rate hike will continue to exceed expectations. For us, it will be followed by a series of effects on interest rates and exchange rates. We think this judgment is too simple and arbitrary. Raising interest rates is not the purpose, but the purpose is to solve the problem of inflation. It should be the highest goal pursued by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates with the least and the lowest cost of damaging the economy. Therefore, it is obviously not the time to test Powell. On the contrary, in the high inflation and the early stage of raising interest rates, it is the inevitable choice of the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation expectations in an extremely hawkish way. Therefore, there is no suspense about the substantial interest rate increase in May and June. However, the negative effect of raising interest rates is bound to gradually show up in the second half of the year. At the same time, considering the base effect, the inflation data of the United States will peak and fall in the second half of the year. This decline should be trend, and the inflation rate will probably last until next year. In the face of the downward trend of inflation figures and the increasing cost of the economy, that was the time to really test the Fed. It was only then that we could see clearly whether the eagle was a dove. However, for the global capital market, there will be an excellent external environment at that stage, and the current dilemma will be broken without attack.
As for the domestic epidemic, it is really worrying that Shanghai is not flat and Beijing is rising again. As the previous monthly newspaper said, this is a problem that is almost unsolvable. Sometimes, although we don’t know what the meaning of waiting is, waiting is really meaningful. Therefore, I think this kind of no solution is only short-term. The final result must be certain and solvable. The Chinese people are wise after all. A few days ago, I told my daughter a story about the ancient legend of Dayu’s flood control. Yu’s father Gu used the method of “containment” to control the flood for more than ten years, with poor results; Yu summarized his father’s experience in flood control and used the method of “dredging and guiding” to control the flood. Finally, it took more than ten years and finally succeeded. When dealing with the relationship between man and nature, scientific methods, appropriate timing and the ability of iterative error correction are indispensable.
Such as the relationship between man and nature, the relationship between investors and the market is also an eternal topic. Every investor wants to overcome the market and obtain excess returns, but the first thing we need to do is to fear the market and respect the laws of the market. The market cannot be accurately predicted. Every investor, no matter what strategy or method we use, is constantly betting on the unknown world. Therefore, it is inevitable to make all kinds of mistakes or mistakes in the process. However, we should try our best to avoid “irreversible mistakes”. The so-called irreversibility means that the mistakes we make need to be made up for a long time, or even irreparable, and buy when the market value is high and the mood is crazy; Or sell when the market value is low and extremely pessimistic. These are often “irreversible mistakes”. At present, although the market outlook is still uncertain, selling stocks is likely to be on such a wrong path in the long run.
In short, Renqiao assets will still take “absolute return” as the only goal, adhere to the investment creed of “prudence, diligence and keeping pace with the times”, pay attention to the “safety margin”, have the courage to reverse thinking and independent judgment, and strive to create more stable and excellent investment performance. Finally, I sincerely thank all holders for their trust in Renqiao assets!
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