I haven't been very optimistic about the future lately, but while summarizing this year by looking at the areas that are most important to me for the future of the world and looking for the most relevant events, I have become convinced that 2024 has been a very positive year for a change that seemed like it would never come.

Another year has gone by and it seems that they are passing faster and faster! It's the law of life - a year can feel like a lifetime to a child, while an elderly person might lose all track of time. Beyond the subjective experience, objective changes are also happening at an increasingly rapid pace. In my lifetime alone, I've witnessed the disappearance of records, cassettes, CDs, VHS tapes, fax machines, analog phones, analog cameras, and countless other things. I've also witnessed radical transformations: The media landscape has shifted from print and television to online subscriptions; agriculture has dwindled almost into irrelevance; oil companies have lost their status as the world's most valuable corporations; and the natural environment has been devastated.  And I'm only 45 years old.

The key point is that these changes resulted from new technologies replacing old ones and companies failing to adapt. This has created new wealth, sectors, and major global players like Facebook, Amazon, Google, Tesla, and OpenAI. While the Internet took decades to achieve global impact, AI is transforming society and the economy much faster and could be universally implemented within 5 years.

The year 2024 signified a pivotal moment, where several prevailing trends that I have consistently advocated for as essential building blocks for the future, began to gain significant traction and demonstrate their transformative potential.

The transformation of cryptocurrency, which I've been part of since betting all in on founding EthicHub in 2017,  has seen it move from a high-risk, institutionally unsupported investment to a favored asset among major firms. This journey reached a turning point in 2024 with the approval of ETFs and the election of a pro-cryptocurrency president.

2024 was the year that Crypto and AI converged. The natural economic environment for AI agents is the crypto ecosystem. AI agents will be one of the most important economic actors in the near future and a major catalyst for crypto ecosystem growth.

As I wrote explaining Bitcoin cycles 4 years ago, the year after a halving is historically the best year of a cycle. Its true that the supply shock is less and less relevant so I think this cycle will start getting lost but there are indicators that suggest that there is still a good push left for the price of Bitcoin in this cycle, and especially for the altcoin bull run. Monetary expansion still has room to grow, and as long as the Fed continues to lower interest rates, Bitcoin's price will likely continue to rise. Key players in the ecosystem are showing signs that the best is yet to come. For example, Ethereum's L2 Linea, a Consensys project closely linked to the Ethereum core, will probably launch its token before the end of the cycle. If the cycle was already over, it would have been a major mistake not to have already launched the token.

Ethereum is undoubtedly facing challenges due to increased competition and the value absorbed by Layer 2 solutions capitalizing on its security without contributing adequately to Ethereum's valuation growth. However, it still holds a seemingly insurmountable position within the blockchain smart contract ecosystem, similar to Bitcoin's role as a value reserve. Despite the current difficulties, it's plausible that Ethereum could overcome these obstacles and regain its prominence.

It's unlikely, but if major Bitcoin maximalist players like Microstrategy decided to sell in order to end the cycle — once their thesis had been validated with a new All Time High, and before capital rotates to Ethereum and altcoins — they could significantly damage all altcoin competitors, including Ethereum (which has not yet seen a new ATH in this cycle). This would be a short-term sacrifice, but would result in long-term market gain and validate the thesis that there is no superior cryptocurrency to Bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency is here to stay, regardless of which specific currencies ultimately succeed.

Although the current positive price cycle will likely end in 2025, the long-term outlook for crypto remains strong as we will surpass 1B users and validate the previous graph. This means we are still in the early 2000’s at the adoption level.

Renewable energy sources are vital for combating climate change which is our most fundamental problem today IMO. They displace fossil fuels, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. The transition to renewables also offers economic benefits, creating jobs, stimulating investment, and enhancing energy security. While upfront costs can be high, operational costs are already lower, and prices have been declining, making renewable energy increasingly competitive.

The increasing demand for electricity is a pressing global challenge. While consumption was already approaching its maximum capacity, the rapid advancement and widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) have caused an exponential surge in electricity requirements. The computational power required for AI development and deployment, particularly for training large language models and complex neural networks, is immense.

In the foreseeable future, the projected electricity consumption of AI systems is anticipated to far exceed that of even the most energy-intensive cryptocurrency operations, such as Bitcoin mining. This dramatic increase in electricity demand raises concerns about the strain on existing power grids, the environmental impact of increased energy production, and the potential for energy shortages in the future.

I'm not a big fan of nuclear energy because it involves very complex and unpredictable risks. In addition, contrary to solar energy, the more we learn about nuclear energy, the less efficient it seems, as we become increasingly aware of all its hidden costs. Still, I prefer nuclear energy to fossil fuels because the problem with nuclear energy is local, while climate change is a global risk that demands priority over anything else, in my opinion. In any case, whether it is nuclear fusion or 4th generation nuclear fission, especially in the form of small, mass-produced, self-contained nuclear reactors (by design, they don't need external cooling sources that can fail, and if there's a problem, they shut down instead of entering a process that could lead to an explosion), we're not far from this energy source taking a more relevant role in the composition of energy sources. However, we're not talking about this decade.

In the short term, solar energy's rapid expansion, due to increased efficiency and production, will play a key role in ending with the growth of fossil fuels. This is especially likely if government subsidies for fossil fuels are removed, as solar energy is becoming a strong competitor.

However, solar and wind power's intermittency poses a significant challenge. Batteries are essential to meet energy demands when there's no sun or wind. A 100% renewable energy model without nuclear power is currently the most competitive option. However, its implementation is hindered by the insufficient development of batteries needed to cover production gaps. There are many battery technology developments driven by exponential demand growth from industries like electric vehicles. These battery advancements are attracting substantial investments.

Solid-state batteries have seen significant advancements in 2024 and are poised to revolutionize applications that demand high energy density, such as electric vehicles, airplanes, and mobile devices. The first commercial units are expected to enter the market in 2025.

The transition to a renewable energy system that excludes fossil fuels requires solutions that can store large amounts of energy cheaply, even if they take up a lot of space. Sodium-ion batteries are a potential solution, as sodium is a much more abundant mineral than lithium. Thermal batteries (using sand or other abundant materials) are also a promising solution for addressing the intermittent production of renewable energy with large-scale energy storage.

In 2024 we have most probable seen peak in emissions and fossil fuel consumption worldwide. China has made significant investments in photovoltaic and battery sectors, and I was surprised by their increased commitment to environmental sustainability during my recent visit. In 2018, sustainability was not a priority for them, but now their commitment has surpassed most Western countries, particularly the US, which continues to disappoint with its lack of action on climate change.

The decline in fossil fuel demand will lead to a decrease in competitiveness of the oil sector compared to renewables. This will result in rapid disruption of fossil fuel demand that will starts to fall, and so the pace of change will accelerate.

While halting the use of fossil fuels is crucial to prevent irreversible climate change, capturing existing atmospheric carbon is even more critical. Regenerative agriculture offers a solution, with the potential to capture nearly all current carbon emissions and, as emissions decrease, begin to absorb the accumulated atmospheric carbon stock. This is a base scenario but I think the green side of decarbonization has a much wider potential.

The declining significance of agriculture in the global economy may be reversing due to the exhaustion of the extractivist model and the end of rural-to-urban migration in many countries. This unsustainable low-cost model, which exploits nature as if it were an infinite resource, can no longer find new land to expand into. Additionally, regenerative agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential to combat climate change which means more incentives for switching the model.

The migration from rural areas to cities has occurred over hundreds of years, depressing the rural economy. This trend has now peaked in some countries, and a reverse migration is beginning due to remote work. Advancements in connectivity and communications will likely accelerate this process.

The increased demand for products and services in rural areas will start attracting more people to live there and meet those needs, thus creating a positive cycle.

The foodtech industry will be radically disruptive when alternative proteins become cheaper and more efficient than those produced by industrial livestock. In the medium term, I foresee intensive livestock farming plunging into a long-term crisis, leaving only high-quality meat from extensive livestock farming as a viable option, with environmental impact as an intrinsic part of the business. Eating a good steak will be a luxury similar to eating game meat today.

The analogy works both from the consumer's perspective and the production side, where the change originates. Hunting ceased to be the way to obtain meat when, with the industrial revolution, the global population crossed the 1 billion people mark, where it had been stagnant for millennia. As the population scaled, hunting was no longer a viable source of protein to meet global needs, and intensive livestock farming was implemented.

Now comes the next stage, where intensive livestock farming, with its high environmental, health, and animal suffering costs, becomes obsolete as a viable way of producing protein, due to the advent of new precision fermentation, additive manufacturing, and other technologies.

I hope that foodtech technologies will not replace foods with a strong agroforestry component, such as coffee and cacao, and those with a strong cultural component, such as wine and tea.

Some entrepreneurs advocate for factory-produced coffee and chocolate due to perceived environmental benefits. However, they overlook the fact that agroforestry-produced coffee and chocolate by small farmers supports tens of millions of people with a regenerative lifestyle. These agroforestry plots actively capture carbon, preserve biodiversity, and retain water, which are key factors in climate change resilience. Promoting high-priced, shade-grown (agroforestry) coffee and chocolate consumption would have a significant environmental impact, which is why I am dedicated to EthicHub.

The demand for sustainably and ethically produced coffee and cocoa is rising, driven by growing consumer awareness. This trend represents a significant business opportunity, as this market segment already accounts for over 30% of consumption in some countries. Conversely, traditional coffee and cocoa production faces challenges due to climate change and rising labor costs. These factors are impacting the industry's resilience and leading to exponential increases in raw material prices. This creates a favorable environment for businesses that prioritize sustainability and ethical sourcing in the coffee and cocoa sector.

And is not only coffee and cacao, all sustainable products are growing much faster than conventional producs even when prices are much higher, creating an incentive for changing how products are made.

The increasing prices, along with the differentiation achieved through more responsible cultivation practices and the incorporation of carbon and biodiversity credits into the business model, are making farming an attractive livelihood once again. This is especially true for those who appreciate living in the countryside, with clean air and water, and in contact with nature.

The year 2024 marked a turning point for cocoa and coffee prices, and I believe this trend is here to stay. In the coming decade, I predict that soft commodities will become one of the most attractive investment assets, and that a distinction will emerge between sustainable and industrial products.

While in other trends that I talk about in this article there is a wide consensus, in this area some are super early trends like the starting rural area growth or are speculative like the foodtech creating a massive disruption to catle industry.

Starlink's direct-to-cell network, which bypasses the need for costly satellite antennas and other specialized equipment, is poised to revolutionize internet connectivity across the globe. This groundbreaking technology will soon be operational, opening a world of possibilities for over 2 billion people who currently lack internet access. They are basically small-scale farmers in developing countries, who will be able to leverage the internet to access vital information, market their products, and participate more fully in the global economy.

The implications of this newfound connectivity extend far beyond simple economic gains. For instance, by facilitating better coordination and providing access to market information and financial incentives, the internet can accelerate the shift towards regenerative agriculture and sustainable farming practices.

In parallel, the rapid advancement of personal aerial transportation vehicles is bringing us closer to a future where flying cars are a common sight. As these vehicles become more affordable and accessible, they have the potential to reshape our cities and transportation systems. Coupled with the increasing market readiness of robots, this could drive a surge in consumer spending in the coming decades, as people invest in new modes of transportation and automated services.

Moreover, the rise of aerial vehicles could lead to a faster shift in population distribution. Rural areas, once considered isolated and inconvenient, could become highly desirable as people gain the ability to commute to city centers quickly and without the hassle of traffic congestion which is another driver for the reversal in the lost of rural area population mentioned before.

The rise of artificial intelligence and robotics is poised to cause the most significant societal and economic upheaval in human history. In previous industrial revolutions, job losses in one sector were generally compensated by gains in another. The decline of the textile industry, for instance, was offset by the rise of manufacturing, and the mechanization of agriculture led to a boom in construction and infrastructure.

However, historian and author Yuval Noah Harari argues that this time is different. The new jobs created by AI and automation will largely require high levels of skill and education, leaving many workers behind. Harari predicts a bleak future for those without the necessary skills, advocating for a universal basic income to mitigate the impact.

While acknowledging the challenges, I hold a more optimistic view. I believe that we cannot yet foresee the full range of new job opportunities that AI and robotics will create. In particular, I see immense potential in the transformation of agriculture. By moving away from an unsustainable industrial model towards a small-scale, regenerative approach, we can create billions of jobs that benefit both the environment and local communities.

Beyond job displacement, the most critical issue arising from AI and robotics is the distribution of wealth. Will the immense value generated by these technologies be used to improve the lives of all, or will it lead to unprecedented levels of inequality between those who own the algorithms and robots and the rest of humanity? This is a question that we must grapple with urgently.

Looking further ahead, the merging of humans and machines, the digitization of memories and thoughts, and life-extension technologies raise profound questions about our identity, our purpose, and our place in the universe. These are complex and philosophical issues that I intend to explore in a future article when I feel knowledgeable enough.

The forthcoming decades will witness a substantial restructuring of wealth distribution, driven by the forces outlined in this article. Historically, major shifts in technology and society have always reshaped the landscape of wealth; the industrial revolution diminished the value of agricultural land and slaves, while the internet era propelled data to the forefront of economic value. Today, we stand at a similar crossroads, where the choices we make will determine whether the impending transformation benefits society as a whole or concentrates wealth in the hands of a select few, mirroring the unfortunate trajectory of internet value, where a disproportionate share ended up with a handful of Silicon Valley giants.

One of the significant trends shaping this transformation is the reversal of urbanization, with people moving away from cities and back towards rural areas. This trend, combined with a potential stabilization or even decline in global population, could lead to a decrease in real estate prices in cities, particularly impacting small and medium-sized cities. Megacities, with their populations exceeding 10 million, are likely to remain robust centers of wealth generation and continue to attract residents.

Japan, the first nation to experience peak population, offers a glimpse into this future; once boasting the world's most expensive real estate, it now has some of the most affordable, with beachfront properties within a two-hour radius of Tokyo available for remarkably low prices.

The shift away from cities (for now in most developed countries) is fueled by multiple factors. Technological advancements, such as remote work and e-commerce, have reduced the necessity of living in urban centers for employment and access to goods and services. Additionally, concerns about overcrowding, pollution, and the rising cost of living in cities are driving people towards less densely populated areas. The COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated this trend, as remote work became the norm for many and highlighted the vulnerabilities of urban life. Flying cars will be another cathalized for this trend to accelerate.

The future of wealth lies not only in real estate but also in the evolving landscape of technology and data. As artificial intelligence and automation continue to advance, they will disrupt industries and displace jobs, potentially exacerbating wealth inequality. The ownership and control of data will become increasingly crucial, as data-driven businesses dominate the economy.

To ensure that the impending transformation benefits humanity as a whole, it is imperative to address these challenges proactively. This includes investing in education and training to equip people with the skills needed for the jobs of the future, implementing policies to promote equitable access to technology and data, and supporting the development of sustainable and resilient communities.

The choices we make today will shape the distribution of wealth for generations to come. By embracing innovation, promoting inclusivity, and prioritizing the well-being of all (including mother earth), we can navigate this transformative era and create a future where prosperity is shared by all.