Micro Price

定义

  • micro price

    • a limit of expected future mid-prices, conditional on the current mid-price and imbalance

    • 以当前的中间价格,价差和订单簿不平衡为条件,对未来预期的中间价格进行限制。

结论

  • 1s mid-price change 和 order book imbalance 成正比

  • daily consistent, hourly consistent,但是adjustment 和当阶段的波动性相关

  • spread seems not a good driving factor for mid-price change

  • Very important to select the right K

  • 样本内和样本外表现很好,consistency

  • 2个改变

    • symmetry the micro price adjustment ==> v[0] = - v[-1]

    • v[middle] = 0

实现

  1. 核心逻辑:不同区间的 order book imbalance,对应不同区间的 mid-price adjustment.

  2. 比如 计算出 ETHUSDT order book imbalance = 0.1 属于 (0.06-0.3),mid-price adjustment = -0.06025 [看下面excel链接], micro price = mid-price adjustment

  3. 只需要把excel 表格带进去,写简单判断区间的语句,就行

计算 order book imbalance

Definition  - Orderbook imbalance
Definition - Orderbook imbalance

Q_b_t ==> 在时间点t,最优买价上的数量

Q_a_t ==> 在时间点t,最优卖价上的数量

计算 mid price

mid-price
mid-price

P_b_t ==> 在时间点t,最优买价

P_a_t ==> 在时间点t,最优卖价

计算 micro price

micro price,
micro price,

M ==> mid price

g(I,S) ==> micro price adjustment, 见下图

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18dmRsHIiPc_bN0OoWAkpptsk7i53Bx9YfoU5q40-ERg/edit?usp=sharing

结果

Plot ETHUSDT Binance

ETHUSDT - 2022/02/18 - 2022/02/24, 1s
ETHUSDT - 2022/02/18 - 2022/02/24, 1s
mid-price change vs. spread
mid-price change vs. spread
mid-price change vs. order book imbalance
mid-price change vs. order book imbalance
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ETH - order book imbalance cut
ETH - order book imbalance cut
ETH - micro-price adjustment
ETH - micro-price adjustment

Plot BTCUSDT Binance

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up: BTCUSDT- order book imbalance cut;  down: BTCUSDT micro-price adjustment
up: BTCUSDT- order book imbalance cut; down: BTCUSDT micro-price adjustment