The future continues to surprise me. I missed the inflection point with AI, as well as the real reason behind Trump's rise. Here are my ten predictions for 2025.

1. Trump forced to innovate on his relationship with the public.

Trump regained power with a overwhelming show in the November election, but the network of entrenched opposition is still firmly in place. Expect to see attempts to ground him. He won’t have a choice here but to start connecting directly with the public here.

2. A legitimation crisis hits a Western nation by the end of the year.

A gradual erosion of trust has been underway for some time now and it only escalated in the second half of 2024. My money would be on the UK or Australia (AU elections ~ May 2025).

3. An AI Bot runs for political office.

This would be hilarious but I don’t see it working out long term. Not enough governance occurs natively online yet.

4. Nationalism makes a comeback.

Driven primarily by economic pressure, but also cultural identity. Trump goes hard on protectionism but it is only a beginning.

5. AI evolves from a productivity tool into a new category of personal mentor for life/spirit.The traditional containers and individuals - Religious Institutions, Schooling systems, personal networks — won’t be able to compete here. It is a new category in its own right.

6. No significant market pullback in 2025.We go sideways for a while before hitting ath’s mid-year. Btc 150k, Eth 6K, Sol 300.7. Structured Products go mainstream in DeFi.Already happening but there isn’t a product/protocol that really owns it.

8. Nation states continue to acquire, but look for ways to co-operate with crypto internationally.We have already heard of the strategic reserve, but what I am thinking here of something similar to the Bank of International Settlements.

Member central banks (e.g. the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan) would deposit Bitcoin into BIS-managed wallets. These reserves could act as a hedge against fiat currency volatility or inflation, just as gold has been historically used.

9. Countries go harder against Social Media. Elon gets himself in trouble here.Using a social media platform means is tacit acceptance of the governance framework that it operates under. Companies like X and Facebook have not been very forthright on this. This just drives a further wedge between Governments and Providers.

10. A major stock exchange tokenizes.

No real explanation required.

The future continues to surprise me. I missed the inflection point with AI, as well as the real reason behind Trump's rise. Here are my ten predictions for 2025.

1. Trump forced to innovate on his relationship with the public.

Trump regained power with a overwhelming show in the November election, but the network of entrenched opposition is still firmly in place. Expect to see attempts to ground him. He won’t have a choice here but to start connecting directly with the public here.

2. A legitimation crisis hits a Western nation by the end of the year.

A gradual erosion of trust has been underway for some time now and it only escalated in the second half of 2024. My money would be on the UK or Australia (AU elections ~ May 2025).

3. An AI Bot runs for political office.

This would be hilarious but I don’t see it working out long term. Not enough governance occurs natively online yet.

4. Nationalism makes a comeback.

Driven primarily by economic pressure, but also cultural identity. Trump goes hard on protectionism but it is only a beginning.

5. AI evolves from a productivity tool into a new category of personal mentor for life/spirit.The traditional containers and individuals - Religious Institutions, Schooling systems, personal networks — won’t be able to compete here. It is a new category in its own right.

6. No significant market pullback in 2025.We go sideways for a while before hitting ath’s mid-year. Btc 150k, Eth 6K, Sol 300.7. Structured Products go mainstream in DeFi.Already happening but there isn’t a product/protocol that really owns it.

8. Nation states continue to acquire, but look for ways to co-operate with crypto internationally.We have already heard of the strategic reserve, but what I am thinking here of something similar to the Bank of International Settlements.

Member central banks (e.g. the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan) would deposit Bitcoin into BIS-managed wallets. These reserves could act as a hedge against fiat currency volatility or inflation, just as gold has been historically used.

9. Countries go harder against Social Media. Elon gets himself in trouble here.Using a social media platform means is tacit acceptance of the governance framework that it operates under. Companies like X and Facebook have not been very forthright on this. This just drives a further wedge between Governments and Providers.

10. A major stock exchange tokenizes.

No real explanation required.